[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

See the GFS is still trolling those of us down towards the coast. 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Hit -3c here already. The forecast was for 0c at this time interested to see where it falls.

And the Scott situation. Hey he may or may not of led a merry dance but in the first two weeks for January that chase made people feel engaged and enraged by the weather. Probably taking their minds off post Christmas blues. It's all fallen flat yes. I loved it because in a sad way I kind of like watching people lose their minds over the weather.

So if there is to be another chase and he leads it, good for him. Its only the weather its all b*llocks in the scheme if things but if it makes people happy good luck to them.

Now how's that snow doing for tomorrow......checks notes.....ah shiiiii

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Latest GFS 12z Det actually brings PPN quite modestly inland for parts of Devon & Dorset tomorrow night;

Suspect it would be rain on the coasts and snow just a mile or two inland.  Moors of Devon would do quite well here, @festivalking.

However, it is isolated currently and an outside chance, but goes to show what a few miles difference can do even when it’s only a matter of hours away.  

Yep GFS has pepped up. UKMO brings the system almost to our shores. But the fax is no good. See what ECM brings.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Doh.

Thats a suckerpunch!

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Yep all models have moved that low north not all hit the coastline but a trend.

Ha ha after I said no chance yesterday. The weather makes mugs of us all.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Tiny shift north on the 18z GFS bringing Cornwall and west Devon into contention. Possibly rain on the coasts but light snow inland. But only for a few hours before the system falls away.

Negligible accumulations though

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

GFS 18z makes landfall in the far south west on Wednesday. A small shift north.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

ECM keeping the agony going as already mentioned by AWD. The system  brushing the coastline. The high resolution charts available in an hour or so will be interesting

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

22 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

What times the next run? Also is this completely dead in the water for us now?? Could it swing back again before Weds? Clutching at straws here as for once the Isle of Wight were in the sweet spot Thanks

ECM run starts at 6pm.  Should know about 6.20. Never say never but you would be brave to bet against it staying in the channel. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Still time for change I guess?! Can someone say which models are showing what now and at what point does it become ‘nailed on’? Thankyou 

ECM GFS ICON UKMO, they all say the front is in the channel. Cross model support I'd say its pretty certain. Yes there is a chance but we're just 48 hours from it now

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

9 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z modelling so far all indictive of any PPN midweek staying out in the channel (a la Red &/or Blue lines on my earlier map), so that scenario has certainly increased a bit in probability.

A pair of Binoculars on the end of Bournemouth pier might just enable some visible snow grains though?

Yep looks like it's over till the next cold spell now. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Sun was out this morning temperature rocketed to 7.1c. Gloom has returned back to 3.8c. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

28 minutes ago, AWD said:

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

Blue line - 25% chance

Green line - 15% chance

Yellow line - 10% chance 

5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

Great analysis thank you. Wonder what macro conditions effect the direction of that low which obviously has such effect at a micro level

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Forecaster's nightmare, this low. Jamie at IOW Met Service is being brave enough to do Facebook updates explaining the situation, opening himself up to dramatic replies from those who don't actually read or understand the situation and expect their snow!

I always favour the ECM over the others, particularly when it comes to the position of lows; so I'm about 80% sure this precip. is staying in France. 

That would be interesting what's his full name or do you have a link to the Facebook page?

And yes super brave.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Deep Channel low said:

GFS 6hrs has the snow  just touching the south coast, 0hrs had a no work snow day. I need a snow day 

This is going to be a long week......think mogreps comes out around midday that will give some clues to the UKMO. Plus the fax charts should be enlightening

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

55 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

GFS has widespread maxes of -3C and mins well below -10C Thursday and Friday night across Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon and Cornwall. 

Yes some staggering low minima. Linked with snow cover no doubt. Hard not to let the mind drift but with keeping things in perspective still not convinced with UKMO and ECM not interested

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

On the GFS it has inched further north! Hopefully not to much more north than this.Be ironic would it not after diving through Paris in the end it dived through Birmingham 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

But just to add the latest GFS now brings the rain sleet snow onto the coastline on Wednesday. The favourite though is still for it to miss us all

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Looking like we have another 7 days of dry weather before the wet onslaught continues. Thought of the rains returning is depressing. Hope water levels manage to fall this week. Fear with the ground warming up and further rain, further flooding will undoubtedly follow.  Happy weekend all

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just now, Mark Parsons said:

It's rare for a southern coastal counties snow event, it usually goes further north or south in this set up........

They are very rare these days. Best one for me which I mentioned this morning was 1994. Oh god, that's 30 years ago!!

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

So chances of snow are slimming by the hour but still for me I'm looking forward to the continuation of low and lower temperatures. Br good to get the monthly average below 4c. The milder weather next weekend will put alot of pressure on this

 

Currently the average for the month is 3.9c

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

Which alternative?? Please enlighten us.......there are 2.....

Paris gets buried 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not quite.. 

Yeah there's me looking at the 12z

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm with you darling!!!

Let us know when the box opens

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

It is strange as many of the enthusiasts here noted that the models tend to correct south due to a bias that is corrected as we count down to T0!

 

MOGREPS currently at 25% of that low making landfall in the southwest. Certainly reduced down from 40%