CWT2012
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Posts posted by CWT2012
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Its when you stated there was a blizzard in my area based on god only knows what. Then there was the comment that a yellow warning hadn't been issued by the met office as it was after 5 and they had probably gone home. So please don't compare yourself to more experienced posters.
That was when there was incredibly heavy snow in the Cherbourg Peninsula, 90mm an hour blobs, I thought that that would move NE up the channel and reach UK mainland around Brighton/Eastbourne area, instead it just burned itself out
Ulltimately the weather is going to do what it WANTS to do no matter what any wind directions or models are computer programming it to do
The Met Office comment was again one of my early posts on here when i had no idea how the inner workings of the Met Office worked.
I have every right to compare myself to the experienced forecasters in their EARLY days, I bet Dave, Steve, Roger when they were inexperienced snow fans starting out on the road got the majority of stuff wrong, if not all, with experience and practice they got better and became the legends they are today with years of experience.
I bet Tony McCoy when he first started having riding lessons fell off his horse many times, i bet when Phil Taylor picked up his first set of darts that he missed the board entirely with his first ever throws let alone got a 180, I bet Ronnie O Sullivan when he got his first ever snooker cue and a table for christmas that it took him ages to get a break in double figures let alone 147
Well said and was exactly the point I was making. We should leave forecasts to those with the knowledge and experience to make them. I totally respect the experienced posters on here!
But how did they become experienced? a god given gift? no, through making predictions like the rest of us and learning from their mistakes over months and years
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The air has been far too dry to support vast quantities of snow. I never thought it would happen and it didn't. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any of your predictions have materialised this winter!
I have only been around for 2 snow days before this weekend so this is my 3rd snow event prediction, sure I have not got any of the 3 right but then again look at the big names on the board when they started out. I bet Steve, Roger, TIETS, BFTP etc got many things wrong in their early days as amateur forecasters/snow enthusiasts before they became model experts.
I didn't know a weather model from a tin of baked beans and have relied on good old gut instinct, enthusiasm for snow mixed with bits and bobs i read in the model thread.
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I see those predicting several inches of snow are quiet this morning. I think the realist amongst us knew that was never on the cards from the start!
The Thames streamer just didn't happen, it was not unreasonable a few days ago to think it might, the conditions were there for it, ENE wind, the right uppers but it just didn't happen sadly, I don't regret my prediction as 2 of the most respected members of the board Roger J Smith and Steve Murr were very enthusiastic about the idea.
Roger even predicted a foot of snow so it wasn't just a snow enthusiast like me that called the Thames streamer
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You'll end up with egg on your face again mate!
I dont think we will get much in our area tbh, Kent and S/SE Essex could well get hit hard but i don't expect to see nore than a dusting when i open my curtains in the morning tbh, but never know
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There is even some reds on the Belgian mainand, those make UK some people will be waking up to a winter wonderland tomorrow, very heavy blizzards
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Unless a trough develops at short notice i don't think London area going to get much out of this cold snap and even FI doesn't suit our region so I think that is it till next winter for any significant snow that sticks around more than a day.
Just hope things start warming up soon, any GH Lettuces off and we get a scorching summer with thunderstorms
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I see CWT's prediction of a foot of lying snow on the downs was spot on lol
Things just didnt work out
The prediction was reliant on a thames streamer, we had the right ingredients, an ENE wind, the right uppers, we just didnt have the convection, i would say we were quite unlucky.
onions happens
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The odd burst of dandruff here that's about it
Just need a Thames streamer to set up otherwise this weekend is going to be a non event
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Why not i love cold very cold dry mornings huge frost...like seeing my wet hair ice up
Lmao, yeah I am all or nothing, love snow to the point of obsession but despise cold weather
Many an early winter morning spent at W Croydon station waiting for a train on a snowless morning feeling mightily micturated off at how cold it is
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Ground going white now
You and your lake effect, you just about get the most snow in southern half of uk :o
Cracking ECM
tonight...early March...cold...not warmNobody wants cold without snow though, ECM great for NW, Scotland, maybe the W Midlands but not for us
Can't believe anyone wants to freeze half to death with no snow falling
Snow or heat please
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Yellow or even amber warnings will be going out shortly, surely
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The estuary is exploding into life more and more by the minute, could be a few inches IMHO for favoured parts if this persists and intensifies
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When you say BIG - How big are we talking
The key to everything is a Thames streamer, without a Thames streamer can't see more than an inch or two by the end of the weekend outside of Kent but the conditions for a Thames streamer are in place this coming day or so, just what is lacking at the moment is the convection
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The beast from the east is more a tame furry rodent at the moment but today was never forecast to be a big day
Saturday was meant to be the main day
Fingers crossed
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He went in Jan 11, last of the greats to go in my opinion.
Thanks, yeah he was always my favourite, when snow was on the way he loved it, real sparke in his eye when he mentioned snow
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What happened to Rob McElwee? he was a bigger snow ramper than me and Yamkin, miss his forecasts
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If.. and a big bloody IF the charts that are showing for march come off.. Well... It would put what we have had this "winter" to shame...
Not for us it wouldn't though, the NW and north Wales would get several feet of snow from that chart but on the precip we were shown as getting rain/sleet so would be no use for us
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I was talking about the chart I have just quoted
JP's NAE for 6am SaturdayShowers stretching all the way to holland and heading down the estuary
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nae
streamer
i want to see the next one of this
got to go out but be back later
THIS is the Thames streamer chart I was talking about
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Where on earth are you seeing that ?? I suspect you may be looking at whats already been mentioned several times as 'anaprop', ie: faulty radar returns.
The NAE for overnight Friday into Saturday
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That looks like a massive Thames streamer, shower train stretching all the way back as far as holland, several hours of light to moderate snow to the London, south Essex, northern Kent regions, with that shower train I would be surprised if there is not a widespread 4-6" for areas within its path
Exciting times ahead
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Still no weather warnings on the met office site, I would imagine they will be going up today or early tomorrow for this weekends snow
Given most of the south east is going to have lying snow of varying depths and only hardcore fans read the models a lot of people will be caught unawares
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I think you're misquoting him somewhat, or certainly embellishing his statement, if nothing else.
It's not about this statement as such more the fact that with each update the level of precipitation for parts of the region has increased, update 1 was no snow then it was a few flurries in eastern coastal regions then it was 1-2cm in favoured parts, now it is up to 10cm in parts of Kent with up to 3-6 in other parts, it is really the fact that EVERY update from Ian in last 3 days has increased the potential snow depths
Given the fact that this has happened there must be a better than outside chance that he will upgrade the potential even further.
His subtle hints at a S London Thames streamer this morning are further green shoots of positivity
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The snow potential from Ian F is upgrading all the time, couple of days ago nothing, then flurries, then 1-2cm now up to 10cm with 3-6 widespread
Given the fact Ian F is talking up the snow levels with each update I think he will upgrade the totals again too
He also said there will be a S London Thames streamer which will be good for Croydon, Epsom Downs, Banstead, north downs like Woldingham etc for deep snow potential
Good times ahead
tonight...early March...cold...not warm
JP's NAE for 6am Saturday
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd February 2013 20:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by CWT2012
People get things wrong
Piers Corbyn and Jonathan Powell have been forecasting snowmageddon all winter which would bring the country to its knees, one of the most respected posters on here apparently made a long range forecast months ago that SSW would give us a winter similar to 1947/63 yet what we have had has been a fairly routine winter, yes there has been the odd snow event but nothing unusual compared with a routine winter so i do not hold a monopoly in terms of predictions going pear shaped