CWT2012
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Posts posted by CWT2012
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It was a bit of fun for the few of us online around 2.00am, it did pep up quite nicely for a while, even had some moderate snow for a time with temps falling back to zero, but as soon as it began to fade, up went the temp and sadly started to melt again, just a slight dusting in places left now..
Yeah once the leading edge of the snake started dying I knew it was game over but even John Pike was ramping and he really knows his stuff so we were just unlucky with the snake and the dew points I guess
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Yet again another post having a tantrum over a snow to rain event.
It's going to get mild, whether we all like it or not, so what a better way to go out with one more snow event.
So what if its going to be washed away, that's what happens when a mild spell follows a cold spell.
I would much rather watch a few hours of snowfall followed by rain, than a boring ALL rain event!
I would bank any snow even if it only exists for a short time but am not as excited as I was for last Fridays event for example as I knew that would stick around but I will definitely be curtain twitching overnight tomorrow night yes
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Can't see where this Thames streamer is going to come from, certainly not for the midday forecast by the NAE
Channel, North Sea and estuary look calm as millponds
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Blink and you will miss it affair, anyone who wants to see heavy snow will have to lamppost watch overnight as it will be gone the next morning, would rather see 4" fall that sticks around for a few days than 8" that is gone the next morning
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Last night was fascinating stuff, watching the potential Thames streamer set up and build in the small hours, even had the ENE wind for it in the estuary but the Belgian snake refused to play ball, if the snake had cooperated the totals would have been a lot different today
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The snake lost its leading edge but it has been back building in Belgium so if the reformed snake gets going from Belgian soil to the estuary things could still work out but it's looking marginal for 2009 style Thames streamer now IMHO
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The leading edge of the snake seems to be fading but it is catching up with a blob of intense stuff so that might spark the snake into life plus the back edge still seems pretty potent so everything to play for
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Well shes primmed for the estuary,Its whether she runs out of puff before making it??
She will suck up moisture in the estuary and intensify surely?
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Dont think the upper air is cold enough to cause any heavier bursts of sleet/snow.
You really need 850s around -8/-10c to initiate stronger ppn.
Regards,
Tom.
Feb 2009 didn't really have strong precip, it was just around 10hrs of moderate steady snow
Think all depends on the snake really, the snake ending up in the estuary is the difference between 2-5cm across the region and 20cm+
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hi sno
all we can do is watch
the 2009 one was a classic and remember seeing it happen
with absolutely no warnings until way after it started
gonna watch next grab then bed
A red alert for the streamer was issued at lunchtime and it really got going 7-8pm and lasted till about 5am
Classic event but there was warnings put up in advance
If tonight is 2009 revisited then warnings will be issues soon surely
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Thanks, ENE, perfect wind direction
Only concern for me is there has been no met office warning put up for this, if a foot of snow is going to fall 2009 style then surely the Met would have alerts out even this time of the night for disruptive snow
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What is the wind direction in the estuary? is it the legendary ENE? wondering what the chances are of a repeat of Feb 2009 tonight
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What's your guess for our area in terms of inches if everything falls into place?
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Would LOL if your earlier predictions come true over night
Precip is light at the moment but if things pick up I think those that went to bed might just be in for the shock of their lives when they pull open the curtains in the morning :o
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looks like the thames has decided to take some of the precipitation
and spit it out over west london
this is looking like a thames streamer building
dry here but have a feeling not for long
Feb 2009 pt2?
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Well I never, forward the radar to 1am-1.30am and there is a band of snow from holland making it's way right in the direction of the estuary, with ENE forecast for later in the night maybe I am being wildly over optimistic but am starting to think of Feb 2009 again although amounts will be much less unless it really peps up in the estuary
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Wow the whole of west London seems to have burst into life too in the last 20 mins, light precip but has come out of nowhere so must be some disturbance bringing all that into life.
Not to mention the stuff kicking off in northern France and the estuary stubbornly clinging on, things could be getting interesting
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Things might be getting interesting again, the crocodile is back and heading for the estuary, build up of precip in northern France again, winds forecast to go ENE again, clutching at straws I guess but never know streamer wise
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It will die now just like the rest of the precipitation across the UK mate.
The main band is still doing it's level best to fire up in the estuary, it's not giving up the fight, if it keeps going until things go ENE there is still everything to play for
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Just as I say that the crocodile band dies :/
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I am very interested in that shower train that is making it's way down from holland, it's narrow but it's intense, like a big long crocodile, if that meets with the main band things could get interesting as that's heading straight for the estuary
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The ppn to the SE has started to intensify. The wind direction off the North Sea is Easterly according to http://www.xcweather.co.uk/
I've alerted the big chief at Croydon Council about the latest ppn potential
This is truly amazing
We will need an ENE though? a straight easterly wouldn't bring us into play?
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Yes quite nice sized flakes as well, getting heavier all the time.
Love the way these snow events turn up and not 1 single model can handle this.
Would love to know CWT's prediction on this one!
Definitely pepping up in the estuary big time, needs an ENE to bring about another potential Feb 09 but the way it's tilting and firing up in the estuary can see north London and east London getting a good fall
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Excellent stuff!
The Storms area gets busy in the summer, I have a feeling there might be a few forecasts of Supercells coming from you by the time we get to June!
I would love to enrol for the storm chase thingy but would never get the idea past my wife so it's an idea I have to knock on the head but it looks amazing
London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Looks like the streamer the met office forecast for 4pm has arrived in the estuary, fair dues to them calling it spot on
Spot on, just a bit late but the streamer has started