CWT2012
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Posts posted by CWT2012
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I'll concede that, as there is always a chance either way until it happens. What I can't get my head around is where you see 1ft of snow in our region, the models I've seen are just not showing that currently.
I think there are 3 possibilities for significant depths
1) Thames streamer, there may never be a Feb 1st 2009 again in our lifetimes but if the right pieces fall into place there could be a very good covering if a Thames streamer takes place
2) Persistent snow in Kent, Kent looks like having possibly 36hr window of persistent snow, with heavier bursts some v significant accumulations over higher parts could occur IMHO
3) Everything moving north, there looks to be some beefy snow in northern France this weekend, the 12z is 50 miles further north, couple more runs pushing things a further 50 miles north and that heavy stuff for northern France could plaster the SE with snow I think
Even Exeter are sounding more positive for snow with each update from Ian F, couple of days ago it went from no snow to flurries to snow but insignificant amounts, the continual upgrading of potential from Ian F is encouraging
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rjs does himself (or his reputation) no help with his annual super ramps! his research and hard work is obvious to see but he doesnt seem to realise we are an island and totally different to the lake effect snow set ups in america.
He was wrong about his snow hurricane but he is one of the big beasts along with BFTP, TEITS, John Holmes, John Pike, Steve Murr etc, there are probably about a dozen or more who have serious credibility and I think he is one of them
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I think coasts point is these events are not upgraded or downgraded till they have happened.
You upgrade the actual event against the forecast or the other other way!
The potential for something significant is higher than it was this morning IMHO
What was looking like a fairly benign event is now maybe just maybe something to get excited about, all to play for
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That is not the correct terminology I'm afraid and it would be misleading to other members to suggest anything has changed dramatically- for better or worse
.Disagree tbh, everything is at least 50miles further north, that carries on then the v heavy snow for northern France could make it's way into our region
Plus the biggest beast of the lot has thrown his hat into the Thames streamer ring, I would say it is a sizeable upgrade for the region
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I am going to stick my neck out and say that somewhere will have at least a foot of lying snow at some point this weekend
Kent or South Downs have to be favourites but north downs / South West London may be the sweet spot if there is a potent Thames streamer
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Dramatic upgrade in the 12z
Precip in an expanded area, Thames streamer of some sort almost cast in stone if the 12z verifies, precip heavier
It is looking like Roger Smith may well have been right with his depth predictions if there is continued upgrades in the next 2 days
We could be on the brink of a memorable spell of weather
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Stop trying to predict a streamer!
First - you can't
Second - you will curse it!
The potential for a streamer is the only thing that makes this spell exciting, the difference between a few grains blowing around in the wind or a few inches of snow, clutching at straws maybe but this weekend would be a boring spell of weather away from Kent but for streamer potential
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Much Improvement, Nice upgrade for snow potential Friday and Saturday.
Saturday looks perfect for a Thames streamer there, unless I have read the chart wrong that looks like the perfect ENE flow off the continent to send a shower train from holland straight down the estuary
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Yes there's lots of potential beyond the settled spell, like I said, it could turn into a race beween the arctic and the atlantic depending on where the high goes but the ecm in particular looks excellent in FI with a strengthening Greenland High and probably more chance of an arctic outbreak, a big shift in the ecm between 12z-00z.
Am concerned about a Greenland High becoming too entrenched as they have been responsible for the succession of washout summers, wish GH would be here in winter and go do one in the spring/summer
But I do think that we have another month of potential snow events, a below average march is my prediction temperature wise
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Well at least thats down on your 12/18" earlier in the week. Hats off for your enthusiasm though fella.
I suspect a light dusting for some parts of the SE/EA is the most likely outcome though
My prediction was based on my belief we would have a Thames streamer this weekend, that is still a possibility although am less excited about the prospects of that than I was yesterday
As things stand I think the models and the Met are underestimating the precipitation of the weekend and there might well be a pleasant surprise in store, time will tell
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but that might not need much to shift it to our shores?a few days to go yet....
Fingers crossed, this weekend is probably our last chance of seeing any real lying snow this winter so it would be good to have one final good event before winter ends
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I remember the net weather radar echo for that - purple- 90mm rates.!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021918/gfsnh-0-180.png?18
Im sensing a spectaculat FI from the pub run-
S
That was spectacular, can't begin to imagine the intensity of that, was unreal watching it unfold on the radar
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sunday could be fun
could be some fun if that comes to pass
I reckon we might get 4 or 5 inches by the end of the weekend, looks like a good 36hrs of light to moderate snow showers over Sat/Sunday
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the Isle of Wight could have the golden ticket looking at those charts? A bit of activity in the channel!
Looks like the Cherbourg peninsula has hit the jackpot yet again
After getting a foot of snow in 90 mins at end of Jan looks like they are in the sweet spot again
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Significant upgrades in 12z both in snow potential and the areas that will see snowfall
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Snow can go on till April, I even saw a cricket match where snow stopped play in May so I don't think March arriving means the end of winter by any means
Things don't look as promising as yesterday for disruptive snow but Ian F dropped hints last night that snow might be heavier than initially thought so there is hope not to mention possible events at the weekend that are not yet on the models
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Who is this big beast on here whom says we are on for a foot of snow?
Please point me in the right direction to his post.
Roger Smith in the models thread
Page 33, post 656, am on iPad so can't copy paste the link
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I feel we could be on the brink of something very special this weekend, if there is not a Thames streamer over the weekend it will be the biggest shock since Mike Tyson got his ass kicked by Buster Douglas.
Everything is falling into place, wind direction, uppers, activity on the continent, wind speed
Even a big beast on here is talking of a foot of snow so we could be on the brink of something that will be talked about on here for years to come
Fingers crossed
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Thames streamer looking more and more likely by each run
ENE wind direction? - check
-10 and beyond uppers? - check
Cold pool and snow activity on the continent? - check
20mph+ winds? - check
Nothing is cast in stone but it will be a major shock if there is not a Thames streamer of some sort between Friday-Sunday
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Things looking very good for a Thames streamer of some sort Saturday into Sunday, whether it will be disruptive like Feb 2009 remains to be seen but the dominoes are slowly falling into place
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A question back to you as well CWT, do you think we are likely to see 1ft of snow across the SE on Sunday and to what do you attribute that - a streamer or some other feature?
I believe that the potential, with potential being the operative word, is there for a Thames streamer this weekend
ENE wind, firm wind speed, uppers of -10 and beyond, all those to me scream potential and if the dominoes fall into place I do believe a repeat of Feb 09 is a possibility, not saying it is cast in stone, not urging anyone to go stock up on bread and milk, just feel that this weekend COULD be something special
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Cant we all club together and send CWT2012 Back on Holiday again, there is nothing in the models at the moment to show even 1" of snow in the South East, your posts are just mis-leading others on here, it looks boring, cloudy with stratocumulus and a few flakes on a cold easterly to end the week, flurries over the weekend but nothing of any note.
This could obviously change but it is looking like a 10-14 day Dry spell with High Pressure is on the cards (Thank God) and if the winds turn southerly towards the end of that period it could actually feel quite nice as we head into March, certainly no wet and windy for most parts of Mainland Uk for the foreseeable unless you live in the Western Isles!
Genuine question, 6 days before the legendary Thames streamer of Feb 09 what was your prediction 6 days out? would you have laughed at anyone saying that come Sunday the SE would be buried in over a foot of snow?
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Sorry CWT2012, but a fair few big snow events have been well forecast! I certainly don't remember being surprised by the amount of snow in 1987, 1991 and at other times before and since.
Feb 2009 came out of the blue though
We were forecast snow during the week via the models to come up through France, light and not disruptive but it was not until the Saturday that the models showed something brewing in the estuary, and even then it was going to be fairly light and again not disruptive, Sunday lunchtime the Met Office put out a red alert and the region got over a foot of snow, that is the sort of thing that crops up at short notice totally unforeseen by the models
Am not saying there will be another Thames streamer although with ENE and the uppers the potential is there for one, quite high potential, but any snow we get this weekend that is heavy and potentially disruptive probably won't show up on the models for a few days yet
Which is why I am not taking the models as cast in stone
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Nonsense according to model thread... which is a case of everybody fighting for themselves over whats gonna happen!! Check this out for a confused.com.. 3 posters in a space of 10 mins with what will happen.. this one says.. "with the high positioned further south now theres not much chance of any precipitation (as things stand). the milder uppers return across the coutry early next week as the high is centred west of north." (obviously a mild ramper) Next!! "At this point in time i would add that their is a good chance that for those living in the south east you will experience a decent spell of snow contrary to others views i feel that the weather as we head into the back end of the week can produce"(loves the cold!!) And finally.. "This does not look good if it's snow your after. It's going to be cold, but dry. You might find the odd snow shower in the far south east but that's about it before temps begin to recover, roll on spring!" (a fine and dry who loves a high!!) So whats the point of viewing the model thread these days?? None because your better off just sticking yourselves in here as those in the model thread couldnt figure out when xmas will arrive!! Ok il say that everybody is entitled to their own opinion because thats what that thread is for.. but please stop confusing the people who just want to view the thread to see or have a rough idea to what this weekend will unfold, yes i have something planned and reading that i just end up throwing my hands up in the air and want to throw something at these people..
My prediction is a few flurries on a cold wind followed by settled conditions because the high will ruin it for everybody!! i know i should of stuck this in the moaning thread but i dont have a pram
The models don't pick up disturbances, trough disruption, streamers though until usually 24 hrs at best before they occur
The fabled Thames streamer of Feb 09 didn't show up in any models days before and the first hints of it were the day before and even then it was not till Sunday morning when we realised something special was about to occur, models picked up jack onions, far as they were concerned it was going to be a few flurries in the east.
The most spectacular events tend to be near enough now casts and this is the likelyhood this weekend
No point reading the models like an Indian call centre worker reads from a script
Any heavy snow for the weekend will probably not even show up by Friday morning on the charts
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South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013
in Regional
Posted
Don't want a northerly, as useful as a chocolate teapot in our region unless it is North Sea coast facing