CWT2012
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Posts posted by CWT2012
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The Synoptics are certainly falling into place for deep disruptive snow next weekend, things can change and shift south but am much more hopeful than I was this time
Just need a ENE shift and it could well be Thames streamer time next weekend IMHO
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I didn't say that another poster had called for GFS to be retired. "To curry favour" doesn't mean you say exactly what they do.
Your analogy simply backs up what I said in my last post about your ridiculous hyperbole.
I know, and it was ludicrous ramping. Just saying that in terms of helpfulness, such exaggeration and lack of measured consideration is not up there, that's all.
I am more a weather, should I say snow, enthusiast
it is reflected in my posts really, a kinda less knowledgeable Yamkin or Frosty037 The Thames Streamer is the holy grail of weather conditions for my area and when I see the possibility of one I guess I get a bit over excited
No doubt in the coming months I will be getting excited about potential Spanish plumes and thunderstorms
But to me GFS is way behind the big 2, even this week it was predicting spring like weather with 12-13 degree temperatures while ECM and UKMO were predicting a robust easterly, in the end it latched onto the ECM / UKMO scenario but the roundabout route it took to get there to me seriously damaged it's credibility again
Every wintry spell it seems to be ECM / UKMO v GFS and then the GFS finally comes on board
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Sorry, but this is just hyperbole of the most ridiculous kind and entirely unhelpful. The stats posted simply do not bear this out.
Anyone would think you were just trying to curry favour with a certain someone...
In terms of your judgement as to the models and weather... aren't you the poster who felt COBRA would have to meet this week?
Said poster has never to my knowledge called for the GFS to be retired, my views regarding the GFS are clearly more extreme than his
I compare the GFS to an amateur hit man, an amateur hitman would go into a bar and spray it with bullets in the hope of killing the intended target, that is what the GFS does IMHO, sprays around any old bullonions scenarios in the hope of getting something right, consistently been outperformed all winter, when it finally locks on to it's target it sprays that with bullets wildly in the hope of getting there.
The COBRA reference was to ONE run where I believed the Synoptics were in place for a Thames streamer, ENE winds combined with -10 to -12 uppers
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It is time the GFS was retired, it has lost all credibility this winter, a joke of a model
ECM and UKMO are only ones worth taking seriously
GFS gets the occasional thing right but even a broken clock is right twice a day
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Good upgrades from the important models, good potential for a Thames streamer as the winds move ENE from E plus good chance of heavy snowfall at 144 if the northwards progression continues
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Still lots to play for
Things are disappointing compared with 2 days ago or even yesterday morning but there are 20 lots of model updates before the action is supposed to kick off (next weekend) so the 'winter is over' brigade need to relax, a lot can and will change in those 20 runs.
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COBRA stood down then?
Can only comment on individual runs, that was my take on that particular one
There will be downgrades and there will be upgrades before anything is nailed on, the 12z is disappointing bar for those living on the SE/E coast but the 18z may upgrade again
The next few days will probably be a rollercoaster ride in terms of models and emotions
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Not much of a positive spin can be put on these runs bar the potential for a Thames streamer increasing, fine for Kent and Norfolk/Suffolk but just dreary cold muck for the rest of us, cold is useless without snow
Not going to stress though as it's only one set of runs and any more before anything is nailed on
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Latest comment from BBC weatherman a few minutes ago. Quote,going into next week nothing dramatic on the horizon just yet. HEDGING THEIR BETS?
Best thing to do at this stage
The fact it is going to be very cold again is nailed on, the juicy stuff is still in FI so no point scaring people at this stage but the fact the models are upgrading with every run makes FI stuff coming off more likely as the big 3 are broadly in agreement now
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ENE would be perfect, with those uppers and an ENE wind it would be good conditions for a proper Thames streamer
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An easterly is nailed on now, well into the 96hr reliable timeframe so all that is in question now is how much snow it will deliver
In terms of snow the models are upgrading with each run with some even showing -10 to -12 uppers which makes heavy deep snow across the eastern half of Britain more and more likely
Next week could well be talked about in many years to come, I fully expect COBRA might meet if the GFS 18z verifies
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Just need 1 more day of the weather gods smiling on me, no troughs, occlusions, thames streamers, stalling fronts or polar low's this side of 1.30pm at Heathrow tomorrow please
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Typical
ECM teases us for days, GFS on a parallel universe, GFS falls into line with what ECM shows and soon as it happens ECM backtracks.
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GFS has lost all credibility this winter, any GFS run should be taken with a mountain of salt not a pinch
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If that band of PPN does reach London, it will be rain, not snow due to the milder uppers that have followed behind the front that is passing through the region.
Thanks yeah seemed to be heading in a direction that might include London
Wondered whether it would bump into cold air in the south and turn to settling snow
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That band of exceptionally heavy snow stretching from Manc to Sheffield, any likelyhood that is going to reach the London area?
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Which Dutch expert and why does he have knowledge about an event in the UK that the UKMO have as far-off possibility at least a week away and yet he can guess the exact depth of snow and at unheard of record breaking depths? Someone (you?) needs to get a reality check and whilst I said yesterday that I understood your concerns for travel safety and timing, this constant scaremongering without any basis what so ever is starting to get tiresome and members here don't deserve to be mislead or treated as unintelligent.
As I suspected (unfortunately) yesterday we have not had any precipitation here at all so far and certainly no white stuff. I haven't checked in this regional thread yet to see if anyone has had even a dusting but I haven't heard of any media reports so far this morning for this area that makes it any different to yesterday.
Now, let me go and see what the meteorological world is doing and might do for us today!
A guy called Ryan on the models thread, reckoned UK would see up to 60cm of snow if the UKMO 144 verified
He wasnt ridiculed by the others or his post moved to off topic by the mods who tbf do police that thread quite firmly so that makes me think he is onto something even if it is not the 60cm he predicts
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Tbh, I suspect ECM is too quick to mix out the cold uppers anyway. On my phone so awkward to post charts, but the upper temp profile is unlikely to change that much in 24 hours given no change of air mass.
If most get a load of snow at days 5 and 6 though, I personally wouldn't be that bothered about what happens after. Given the low heights to our NW this winter I'd bank two major snowfalls from this winter :-)
There is still a chance (albeit small) that we could see a more substantial full on easterly in the day 10 timeframe, but that's an outside bet.
CWT - 18 inches of snow :-) a tad optimistic me thinks
Jason
That's quite conservative compared with what our Dutch friend forecast
60cm which is like 26" :oGiven up all faith in the GFS now though, useful as a chocolate teapot this winter
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Then I hope for your sake your flights are all booked on ONE ticket. If they are and you miss your connecting flight the airline will put you on the next available flight. However, if the flights are on seperate tickets and you miss the connecting flight its au revoir unless you purchase another ticket at the walk up price. ( About as expensive as it gets ).
Now back to the weather. Still breezy here in Nw London but I just heard a traffic report on the radio saying police have closed the M4 between Hungerford and Chievely due to an accident and SNOW.
It was all booked and paid for at the same time and my luggage is going straight to BKK so should be alright there
UKMO has snowmageddon on the cards around 144 next week, could be an extended holiday if that verifies as looking like 18" snow according to a Dutch expert
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UKMO verifies at 144 then it will be a COBRA event, looking at 18" of snow nationally, especially on eastern side of UK
GFS can be consigned to the bin tbh, probably for the rest of the winter, performed poorly most of the winter
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CWT2012. In the 23 years I have worked at Heathrow it has very rarely if ever 'shut down' completely. You are stressing yourself uneccessarily in my opinion. Flights MAY be delayed/cancelled due to adverse adverse weather conditions, ( Highly unlikely this week I think based on current forecasts ) but since you are on a flexible ticket the airline will offer you a full refund or an alternative flight.
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True but have connecting flight, have to change planes at Dubai so any delays would make it difficult to catch my connection, am praying to the weather gods
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Your going to do yourself in at this rate,
or many of us..........
Aha true, I do worry, I have had sleeping difficulties last couple of nights because I was worrying about disruptive snow
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How long are you away for CWT2012?
I think that is the way it might be, I'm not saying I hope it might be though!
Just 8 days, 9 including flying time, then I can start wanting snow again
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I understand your personal concerns, but many posters have reassured you this is very unlikely on a number of occasions and you really should put more faith in the Airport authorities to get you away on time and safely, as I'm confident they will.
Onto 12z GFS as it churns out now and the best/worst it has is this in the early part of the morning:
It then disappears to this, not unlike the previous runs:
Wednesday's best currently on GFS is:
Hope you are right but the snow on Wednesday and it looks pretty intense on the GFS was a spanner in the works, just shows that a trough or front can develop out of nowhere.
JP is posting fax charts later, I eagerly await them. Admittedly with a fair bit of concern
it is reflected in my posts really, a kinda less knowledgeable Yamkin or Frosty037 
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 14:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted
I think things are setting up nicely for a Thames streamer over the weekend, Saturday into Sunday look to be from ENE and with the uppers being -10 to -12 things are looking promising for a Feb 09 style event IMHO plus if you add into the mix potential disturbances I do think that a foot or more of snow could be quite widespread in the SE by the end of the weekend IF and it's a big if, things fall into place