I would start taking notice of UKMO forecasts as of Sunday when I fully expect a warning to be issued for parts of the North West for Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Yes this is a potentially an extremely important run for people seeking proper cold, surely tonight "Pub Run" of the GFS will continue its slow backtrack to what I think is the most plausable solution.
Looks like another cracking run from the ECM tonight, clearly does not support the GFS for the Atlantic to win the battle, along with the UKMO & GEM its looking clearer that we a moving to a more prolonged cold solution.
December 17/18th 2010 we got lucky, will we be lucky again only time will tell one thing for sure however is its going to be mighty cold going into the start of next week, I wouldn't rule Sunday night temps of -10 out of the equation.
NOGAPS is an old computer model and is being replaced soon, in my opinion ignore, GFS still out there on its own. Something leads me to believe that some people want the GFS to prevail.
She is one of the biggest Mild Rampers of all time, I want Ian Fergusson up here. In all seriousness though doesn't matter what she says cold and possibly sustained cold is most certainly on the way.