Dan the Man
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Posts posted by Dan the Man
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Still nothing at all here - just threatening cloud.
Patience is a virtue however.
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Very dark here. Slight drizzle a few minutes ago which has since stopped. Still looking good for later. TWC don't predict 'Heavy T-Storms' to hit until 7pm onwards.
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Think if there was a TORCON index for Northern France, it would be about a 6/7 right about now?
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Big difference from previous storm events in the last couple of years has been the absence of the jet - not today. Strong upper level winds straight across central England.
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Latest TAF for LGW has been released in the last couple of hours. Severe/heavy thunderstorms predicted between 2pm today and midnight...
LONDON/GATWICK EGKK 271101Z 2712/2818 VRB05KT CAVOK BECMG 2713/2716 BKN040 TEMPO 2713/2723 7000 SHRA TSRA PROB40 TEMPO 2714/2721 VRB15G30KT 2000 +RA +TSGR TEMPO 2719/2807 6000 BKN008 BECMG 2720/2723 27010KT BECMG 2806/2809 21013KT PROB40 TEMPO 2812/2818 7000 SHRA
And from IMBY point of view...
LONDON LUTON EGGW 271101Z 2712/2812 12005KT 9999 FEW040 TEMPO 2714/2724 7000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2714/2724 VRB15G30KT 2000 +TSRAGR BKN012 BKN040CB BECMG 2720/2723 26012KT TEMPO 2721/2807 6000 BKN009
Slightly less confidence.
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Squall line looking impressive - is that just going to keep going N or veer NE or NEE?. The precip seems to be increasing in size as it hits the SW coastline.
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Anecdotally, that system coming out of Biscay is getting bigger and bigger. Looking good.
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and looks like decaying
I wouldn't say that there are that many visible signs of decay - and obviously 75 miles of English channel will gain a fair bit of energy.
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Not sure those holidaymakers at Bognor will be there much longer!
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That Caen cell is only about 60 miles from the South coast now, if only the system could back about 10 degrees for an absolute direct hit for all of the SE.
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FAO Surrey/Met Monkey forecast...
Not worth splitting that 'severe' zone into two - the thunderstorm potential seems to be far more pronounced for Central Southern England than the area north of London?
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Bloody hell! Northern France twinned with Oklahoma?
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That cell over France is HUGE.
If you just watched Ben Rich's forecast a few minutes ago, it demonstrates so well how that cell has grown and grown overnight. France and Belgium are in for a battering.
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Just watching Peter Gibbs' forecast - look at those pulses Saturday night!
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Up to 3000kj of CAPE in France.
Unfortunately I've only just arrived back in the country after a few days, so missed the fireworks earlier this week. Any videos knocking about?
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Flew into Sanford Airport in Florida back in August 2001. Our flight landed approx 3pm local time; looking over the back of the airport you could already see the convection building. Within an hour, the sky had gone pitch black and we had the best fireworks show I've ever seen. Surrounded by about 2 or 3 separate cells blasting out fork lightning every few seconds for several hours. Torrential downpours made driving almost impossible.
I was in Atlanta during the deadly tornado outbreak in April 2011. I kept well away from 'the action', but driving upstate a day after a big storm, you could tell where the cell had hit.
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Hmm Im flying into LGW next Thurs night... could be quite bumpy!
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The Daily Express doing its usual MEGA RAMPING this morning. Sizzling to 2 days of 90F
Apparently this heatwave will also kill 1000s.
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Plenty of CAPE to play with.
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Epic Ecm! would that little shortwave of the west of Ireland produce instability/thunderstorms over Ireland?
I'm looking down at those upper temps in Spain and Morocco. Crikey!
What sort of temp are they looking at there?
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Surely +18 uppers would bring ridiculous heat, as in upper 30's celsius. Or am I reading this wrong?
Quick question - how do uppers correlate into surface temperature? Is there a ratio?
During the winter, I assumed the general rule of thumb was 500m temps + 5C?
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So, what was the final score today then?
Heathrow - 30.9C?
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Just had a look at TWC app - forecast for my area. Reporting back chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon?
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I was surprised to see the local BBC forecast going for lots of cloud and only 24c here on Saturday, that looks several degrees to low
I think its wise not to look at temperature predictions until T48 as the trend is to upgrade significantly between that time and T120. Often these estimates are conservative.
Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Dan the Man
THAT forecast for the Pennines on BBC1 now. Bloody Nora.
That looks a potentially dangerous forecast.