[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

you can't deny the 06 GFS is remarkably similar to its 00z run 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Why don’t you all wait? The GFS is only out to T+60!!!

it doesn't look good, the low is heading north  I really think the GFS has lost the plot comletely. Time will tell, if not I risk losing the plot completely! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Respectively I disagree.

in that order?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply won't have enough ummph from the north t move south.

I'm sorry but it's not a case of GFS vs ECM..... its GFS vs pretty much every model going. right now I don't trust any of them, but if I have to back 2 models at D5 it would be the UKMO and ECM, in that order. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, MJB said:

6z ICON not as good as the 0z ....................gulp!

It's nothing like the GFS though.. probably just delays the coldest air arriving. The GFS has a much deeper feature by the same time stamps

ICON 

GFS

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

looks like the gfs has been to a party and is now in complete isolation!! GFS was the first model I viewed with my coffee at 7:45am and I almost made it Irish as I got that sinking feeling. I’ll be honest I was pleasantly shocked when one by one all other models in the GEM, ICON, UKMO and the ECM showed the cold spell still very much on! Surely the gfs will begin to tow the line starting with the 06z? Those 4 can’t all be wrong at such short range surely?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Andypvfc said:

Must admit I do find it strange how Snow can turn grown blokes  into toys out the pram mode . Yes it looks nice on a Christmas card and I do like Severe weather events, but I've not to the point of losing the plot over it lol

Not even after a promised easterly only to be ripped away by “that ECM” at +72. Not that I’m bitter about that still...  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Karlos , good to see you posting again . Yes I’m well but haven’t stopped comfort eating during the covid crisis ! So my figures gone to pot! Anyway in terms of the GFS , the 18 hrs is currently equal second with 06 hrs and the 00 and 12 are equal first at day 5 , at day 6 the 18 hrs is last , at day 8 it’s 3rd as the 06 hrs falls below it . I’m very dubious of its run tonight , hopefully it’s just a rogue run .

Cheers Nick, mainly been lurking this year for multitude of boring reasons. Same boat with Covid fingers though

thanks for the stats, that’s interesting and I think we can claim D6 just about for the 18z show tonight. The way it blows that low up really doesn’t look right to me, but famous last words Fingers crossed for the 00z.

 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the low in terms of the ECM ensembles for that time period not a single member has a pressure reading below 1000 for London , further up towards the east coast where the low deepens more on the GFS no sign of anything deeper than that . 

Looking at key points , so from my area heading ne towards Paris , that gets down to around 997 .

I haven’t had time to go through each member with the full synoptic charts but simply in terms of a deep low tracking in the manner the GFS op shows there is zero support from 50 ECM ensembles and the control run . There maybe shallower features but in terms of that track and depth , no support at all .

I’m not saying we can just ignore the GFS perhaps it’s found a new trend but on the current evidence the jury finds it guilty of causing undue stress to coldies in here ! 

Hi Nick, hope you’re keeping well? Any idea what the 18z performing like in the stats? Do they break it down by run or just by model?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Let’s be honest, it won’t be the first pub run to disappear by morning. I Take some comfort in that.

who’s setting their alarm for 4am

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Heights are on the move, cracking ending possibly on the cards here.

 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

oh my, brace yourselves. fl beauty incoming 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Mean looks closer to UKMO than it’s operational to me 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

I think the gfs has broken all lockdown laws, broken into the pub and been on a proper sesh!! 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

30 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

I don't think this is wholly true. The trend has been and continues to be away from cold. The one good bit of news is that the 12z operational was on the mild side in FI, even at one moment a brief outlier. But the ensembles continue to show a wide scatter with more and more mild runs appearing and the cold snap is less sustained as the Atlantic returns. In the short term the operational was less supported, with a significant number of milder runs. The general trend is way from anything too dramatic. A colder snap, certainly, from Friday to Sunday but nothing to get too ramped about. Very early days in winter terms and all that.

Snow will be in short supply with such warm North Sea temps. It will only really be apparent above 300 metres, elevation which doesn't exist in East Anglia. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

NAO/AO tanking

If these upgrades keep on coming in then i might have to change my avatar...

now where's my car

Upgrade or trend away from cold... which one is it the newbies scream.?

personally I’d say it’s neither, short term it’s been quite a consistent picture for the end of the week, we are in the almost cold enough for all category, but it’s going to feel a lot colder than of late. Question remains where we go next week, but currently a mild outlook looks unlikely, as does anything remarkably cold & snowy. 
 

lamp posts definitely on standby for some as we approach the end of the week though. That’s good news for week 1 of Winter in my book
 

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

6.9c & 72mm

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward]

14 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Karlos, similar to you but my garden suffers from Chafer bugs, and plan to use Nematodes to remove then. Big issue is the supply has arrived late, so most are now fully grown. So what you say, well the moral of this is that it's better to apply this in the Autumn rather than the spring I think (of course the view is mine and we have many gardening folks on here, who will probably disagree). Amywayz..given you will have a limited window to apply these as their use by date is usually fairly short, with next weeks daytime temps in the mid to upper teens and night temps down to around 7C, unless we get a frost I think you just have to apply it as early as you can as the day temps warn up..I plan to apply mine this week as it has just arrived today..

Hi Dorset, My Nematodes arrived on Friday and they are in the fridge. I also plan to do it this week, as you say the weather looks good with nights not dropping below 7 or 8C. 
 

seems the best time to apply is in the evening from what I’ve been reading?

Good luck with yours, I hope you manage to salvage your lawn.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Hi Karlos!

I can't give you an accurate reading where you are, but soil temps here at 10cm down are around 13 - 14°C. 5cm down they are 16 - 17°C.

That’s plenty warm enough then, thanks v much

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward]

Hi everyone 

I hope you’re all keeping safe and are in good health?

I’m after some help. I’ve got an infestation of leather jackets in my 1 year old Lawn I’ve ordered and received parasites that will hunt them down and kill them, but I can’t apply it until soil temperature is at least 10c.

Has anyone got an accurate reading for my general geographical location?

thanks

Karlos 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

7 hours ago, Zak M said:

.

 

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

Hmmm, most snow events happen in late Feb/March aided by a weakened PV, that’s not looking likely anytime soon. It’s highly probable this year’s breakdown will be a late one given the strength of that beastly PV! 

northwesterly colder than normal airflow seems our only straws to clutch on this winter. Don’t worry though, next winter ️

 

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Oh well, that’ll teach me for digging the sledge  out in November. I take full responsibility

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

36 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Has there ever been a more boring Winter? 

No, this is probably the quietest I’ve ever been on this forum, because from every angle this winter looked doomed until at least Jan & that’s progressed through January now.... so you can bet your bottom dollar, just as we want spring...... it’ll snow

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Also i said give it till friday before getting excited!!mate it didnt even last till wednesday evening!!the inevitable flattening down of all the amplification looks to be happening!!over to the 06zs!!i give it till the 12zs before packing it in!

Flat as a pancake 

More up and downs than the Jet stream at present! Shaky.... Relax you will pull a muscle 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s still fascinating to watch this unfold. Still to close to call at this stage in terms of who may see some snow. Ukmo has stuck to its guns but is still suggesting some will unfortunately not the majority. 

 

I think we we all know he’s not referring to winter. Considering the detailed posts he often puts up we should allow a short emotional post? 

Newbies should imo look through the output and see  why it’s not as good as it once looked. Compare ukmo and ecm and gfs to help learning. It’s less stressful than just hanging on everyone’s words without being able to form your own opinion.

 

fwiw imo some will be going to the voting booths with snow underfoot.  

yup I agree. Actually the UKMO & ECM are not that dissimilar at +144

and by D8 on the ECM you wouldn't kick that out of bed would you?