[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

3 hours ago, Nights King said:

I remain un convinced Karlos it looks like a cold wet week with plenty of disappointment. Tuesdays looks like sleet briefly turning to non settling snow as it clears. Then rest of week we on wrong side of marginal mostly?

As Richard would say... it’s the hope that kills me  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

27 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

My view, on Tuesday/Wednesday hasnt changed. Not enough entrenched cold in situ before the front arrives on Tues to give decent snow for our neck of woods. And it is not a classic channel low either imho.

These marginal events can be high risk high reward! There will be cold undercutting. Large areas of our region still very much in with a decent shout at a snow event. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not sure it'll move west, more like further east of anything. When are the next model runs?

Well..... as I was saying Jay it’s not impossible or improbable 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Personally I’d be more nervous if I were under the warning now! As they have a habit of moving in these setups...

but yeah it’s not ideal.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

With the 528 Dam line straddling the south, cold uppers close by and plenty of moisture, the potential is definitely there imo. 

Take 4pm for example on the gfs

low to our south, 850’s -4/-5. Some possibly heavy ppn in light winds! I would say a high chance of evaporative cooling coming into play as a minimum.

So although a widespread snow event doesn’t look to likely right now, I think there is a high chance some will do well out of this. It’s a shame we didn’t have cold air in place. A classic channel low really is when we’ve had cold continental air in place and a channel low pushes up against any block. This is a different animal. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

19 minutes ago, CSC said:

Have you watched the 10 O'Clock news?

BBC have said 'showers in places' but nothing note of any significance. Some models seem to be going for dumping whilst others seem to go for 'showers' or some cases nothing at all. ECM puts South East in a great position whilst GFS does not.

Here is the GFS

 

Here is there BBC. Evident to me of a non significant snow event..

Of course everything depends on the position of the Low but I was simply stating that I think the South East will be in the favourable spot this time around and that the BBC are wrong (not for the first time) about the position of the low and therefore where snow falls.

Here you can see GFS (P) is also entirely different,

Icon heavy snow too for much of Kent and Sussex.

Most know that the BBC app updates are not always in reflection to current information as they are automated much like many apps. They update at periodic intervals and sometimes, at times like these, they do not update as frequently. This means that if the app is showing snow now, it may not be currently forecasted snow for the period if it hasn't updated so a link to the website at this moment does not show their current forecast.

This what I meant for BBC not going for a significant snow event. I hope everything has clarified!

 

 

Well very interesting, but here’s some factual information:

“those BBC graphics are showing EC12z deterministic and yes, it really has v little snow, hence the forecast *as it stands*?? 

Also bbc app updates using actual intervention at nearer lead times; rest is primarily EC based BUT represents ensemble blend rather than pure deterministic. It also uses algorithm for temps to be site specific based on historic climatology in specific set-ups. Temps have proved more accurate versus UKMO 'best data' blend used before.”

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

This low won’t even have formed in 24 hours time, so don’t expect anything to firm up until at least Monday. 

I’d ignore the mod thread as it’s IMBY Central! We should have a better idea of the general track tomorrow afternoon maybe, I.e the cone of uncertainty will narrow a bit. Until then I’d put it to the back of your mind to avoid disappointment, the odds favour disappointment for now imo..

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

ECM is.... interesting 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Quantify "some"

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Are post it again . Hopefully someone will answer the above ? Pretty please . 

Looks more like the Russian high nosing in over scandi as apposed to true scandi Heights. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Weeks 2&3 look good

week 4 looks a bit west based 

but don’t worry week 6 all good

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GAME ON? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

This thread is absolutely hilarious sometimes! Today really has been quite something to behold  

heres an explanation in song

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS not a million miles away fro the UKMO at +144

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Dunno what to make of ukmo this evening at 144 hours!!could do with that low pressure further south and slightly east!!

Never mind that Shaky, look North!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I think we’ll run with “Trend setter” 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Bit of a pub special that! Cracking stuff and not the first time we’ve seen the gfs chuck that sort of run out in the low res over the past couple of days. It’s picking up on something for sure, let’s hope that’s the watered down version ???

That reminded me of march 2018 but with staying power!! 

How cold

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216:

Should be ok in the end, some half decent WAA heading up west Greenland

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, and we see the warm air advection start to build heights towards Greenland , good run this await the next frame:

I’m slightly concerned the next frame could be very West Based -NAO

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

7 minutes ago, Storme said:

Ok thank you. I am still learning stuff. 

No worries, thought I’d answer rather than skip past your post

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Decent ecm at 120

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Storme said:

I would like to add, if I may, and its ok to do so, that the NW radar had a lump of snow pass over us. Nope, it was rain 

These are model based though. Radar is correct in terms of ppn, but the ppn type is determined by the conditions that were predicted at that time. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

On a more serious note a player we signed is probably dead as the plane crashed Into the sea shocked.

Yeah  i heard about that, really sad news  . Cardiff don't seem destined to sign anyone this window do they

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm hoping it snows tonight, haven't even seen a flake.

You must be due a foot mate 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Anyone actually got a covering of snow?

err have you read any of the posts Jay