[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Just some more info on the MJO.

We're currently in phase 4 - this image from Marco Petagna (Met Office)

shows the trends for each phase 

 

That’s the guy that writes a lot of the Long range forecasts for the MetO. He’s worth a follow seems a decent fella, replies to tweets as well. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Johnp said:

Are they trolling us and just putting the same images up every few days?

My hope is the signals for hight lat blocking are correct, and it's just a case of the downwelling being much slower than expected.

LOL yes it does feel we are being trolled!

I think that could well be the case! At least once this propagation has happened, a clearer picture should start to emerge.. *hopefully

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Yes Weeks 2,3,4

looking good as we head into February

Although we’ve been here before, I understand the lack of excitement that this update may bring. 

But I’d rather it showed this signal than comfirm what some of the more sceptical are possibly thinking!

[Focussed Model Discussion]

Week 2,3,4

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Didnt see it but guessing its mainly for the North West ??

The graphics didn’t suggest that. They may use that forecast for the 22:00 news on BBC1 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Sounds intriguing to say the least.

Jet way to the south, snow was mentioned with low heights very near or over the UK. Certainly looks a tricky forecasting period coming up with chances a plenty!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

BBC forecast looked quite juicy for next week on BBC news channel just now to be honest.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Shame that the ICON didn’t go a few frames further. Scope for a wedge in the perfect position at 120! 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

It also says keep it model related and more importantly “friendly” 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Disco_Stu said:

How many more times do we have hear the phrase 'background signals'?

Well the tail doesn’t wag the dog.... 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Hungarian MetO site should update soon for EC monthly snapshot. It’s usually out by now

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

An odd run I thought from the EC Det. A thought backed up by the graph form. Very up and down and on it’s own by D10

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yet..

Exactly PM... yet is the word as far as I’m concerned.

I’m not sure if people are aware that the downward propagation is still underway, the signal is for this to reach the surface at the end of January. So as we head to February, anyone writing the background signals such as the SSW off, are doing so prematurely. 

Also can I just add, that the people that go to extreme lengths to construct in-depth posts as to where we may be heading and why, looking at teleconnections etc, should not be disregarded so flipently when things don’t turn out how people wish, they should actually be commended. People used to say the strat had nothing to do with colder winters if i remember correctly and that has now been well and truly put to bed. Not withstanding the fact it is pretty rude, especially when you don’t have a coherent reply to debate it with, just a throw away comment to say they are useless. 

 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Geez! Some folks do love to complain!

Yeah I know, I was just confused where to post, but I’m over that.  I actually like the bit of freedom this thread gives for a bit of humour rather than “it must be deep model analysis only”!

You can’t have your cake and eat it, although it appears that’s what some are after  

anyway, easterly on the cards again! Pass me a beer!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

These threads have been dead since they split them. Hard to follow anything.

Agreed, it’s hard to know where to post.. 

[Focussed Model Discussion]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

https://www.google.com/search?q=in+meteorology+what+is+a+wedge%3F&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&gws_rd=ssl

various links but all say ridge of high pressure

Yes exactly John. But I think when we use the term it’s usually to our N or NE forcing sliding lows over the uk and bringing snow chances. Obviously wedges of heights could appear anywhere on the globe, but this is usually when many would refer to said wedges on this forum... I think

[Focussed Model Discussion]

6 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Would @bluearmy or anyone else have time to give a quick explanation of a wedge? Am I right in thinking its an increase in application of a high pressure cell that causes the jet to come in on a NW/SE axis causing a PM flow as opposed to full on Greenland block?

A wedge of heights to the N or NE of the UK that can direct low pressure system on a more SE trajectory in a sliding fashion over the UK! Is my understanding. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

March seems to be the best time for Easterlies in recent years that give you decent snowfalls and bitter temperatures

March is always more likely to have Scandinavian Heights than mid-winter. Guessing because the PV begins to break down

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If anyone needed convincing that there is no sign of nirvana in the modelling then surely the above post is it, more to the point, who actually posted it!

I’m almost at my wits end with this winter. I know there’s still a while to go, but all I see at the moment is that stubborn PV lobe and it’s not going anywhere fast. 

Hideous output this morning, unless you live on pretty high ground in the North!

The EC46 update tonight will be interesting. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Bit of a less cold set of T2’s 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, doctormog said:

The balloon data appears to be at 77MB rather than the 18z norm of 99MB. I doubt those 20MB would make any significant impact on the 2TB set.

I’m guessing the 91% is based on the deviation from the daily average not the 18z one

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfs_gdas_observation_amount_quality.asp

Goes to show how utterly useless the 18z & 06z are! That’s a staggering data difference on balloon data alone! 12z/00z use 1.6GB and the 06/18z use 99mb  

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well it would explain the variances between the GFS and Para at 162

 

Not sure what impacts it will have, but if the start data is wrong.... god only knows what the low res results are... surprised it didn’t show the moon by +300 to be honest

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, BlackburnChris said:

someone is winding you up mate, that chart aint real

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Balloon data missing 91% of data

Yeah that’s more than just a bit lol

 

[Focussed Model Discussion]

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

If you’re wondering What does this mean?:

“It shows the amount of data gone into the initial conditions. More data in usually means a better idea of atmosphere at starting condition.”