karlos1983

nice bit of WAA

potential for an undercut here looks almost impossible for the high to sink, low heights in europe south and east.

enter phasing... errr phase

perhaps not then........

looks more amplified to my eye

Christ on a bike, instant lightening deafening thunder and substantial hail storm. Was having a pee, could have ended badly!

hmm, i'd probably let it ride a little longer, it's not until around +96 that our interest there gets going. at least.

That'll do too. I think if we look back on the past few days exhausting model watching, I can't look past +120 with any degree of certainty. I'm pretty convinced more twists to come, whether or not they turn out favourably is another matter. Ps. Do the postage stamps only go out to 120? 144 would have been ideal after today's 12z

Yeah I'm happy with that. If we can prolong it further then great, if not oh well, either way a nice winters week ahead.

Cluster 3, members 31&34 please.

ECM ENS for 168,

Interestingly the operational starts its separation from the pack, right around the time it's shown to phase the Azores low. So perhaps a good sign.

I'm sorry, but until such time that all 3 models are in agreement on how the Azores low is dealt with, we can't really say with any confidence which is correct, all three still pretty much disagree (GFS/ECM/UKMO) although the ECM and GFS agree that it will phase with the lobe south of Greenland, just down to timing. I don't think currently any model can be disregarded just yet. I think as Nick said a little earlier, for sanity think ECM, but I guess that's down to individual choice, I know I will be. so we have GFS discounting any extended cold in the midterm and the UKMO sticking it's fingers up at that idea, with the ECM sitting on the fence, that's how I see it. 144 ECM/GFS/UKMO

Certainly be interesting to hear what the meto musings are, if they back the ECM or UKMO.

Very UKMO esque

The warm witch on her broom stick

Well BA, your bird has taken a dissection this afternoon on the UKMO 12z

Definite back track from the 18z. Might even get up for the 00z. I won't be humouring the GFS and watching its fl fiasco, I'm happy enough out to 144 Southwesterlies holding back

This is a southwesterly No further comments your honour

The BBC nor any weather Model is showing s'westerlies next Wednesday as we know it.

Blimey that's almost a carbon copy.

Well I'm glad Ali put it out there as I was thinking the same I must admit after your post. Last thing we want is a positive AO And NAO, although you didn't state that exactly, that's where my head was. I'm considering a cheeky PM to Stewart or Tamara. I'm in need of some urgent torpedoe reassurance

ECM ENS graph is a worry though, bottom end of cold

here you go

I would say look at the data that Frosty backs his comments up with and then make your mind up. He like many others always backup what they think they see. And like Frosty points out, it is going to get cold and some will see snow, no question about it. You will probably get better idea of your locations risk of snow from the regional threads if that's what you are after, as all the talk will be for in your back yard. but a lot of water to go under the bridge before pin pointing where it may or may not snow IMO.