karlos1983

All gone a bit messy. Looks like the heights over Greenland have gone and the PV is rebuilding in later stages.

Nice change from the GFS 06z to 12z 06z 12z Some decent WAA pumping up to the west of Greenland

Scrolling through the 06z GEFS Purbs in fl it really is a question of take your pick, only a few don't favour deep cold of some sort and the ones that do not, have a high bang smack on top of us. 9 in particular is a beauty! linked below http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=216&code=9&mode=0&carte=1 850s http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=216&code=9&mode=1&carte=1

This chart is a thing of beauty!! Almost complete perfection Very uhhmm... what's the word...... oh yes, BLOCKY!! oh WOW

Overall I'm still happy with the outlook, we don't quite get the Artic High link up with the Atlantic High, but so very close on the GFS(P). Pretty happy with the ECM Ensemble at 216, GFS op gets there as well really, but seems a bit to much energy coming out of N America pushing it east very quickly, which is not a massive surprise, it is the GFS, which does tend to favour a more mobile pattern historically. I still remain very positive about mid month onwards. Just a few weeks ago we were here Karl

We do see some decent WAA which is repeated on the GFS P. So that's a good sign.

I'm not sure I have the energy for another easterly. I fear for my sanity if it were to fail

Not really the beast we are after, more of its lame lesser cousin. Which is pretty unlikely to verify, very weak ridge that is certain to get shoved east as is usual with the GFS imo

Yup, looking at the main 3 this morning, if I was looking for a trend it certainly seems to me that we could be eyeing up a northerly around mid month. UKMO obviously doesn't go out far enough but you can see how it could get to a northerly Fromm its 144. UKMO

Indeed iceberg, We can't discount them, the last one looked unlikely but it hit Iceland luckily rather than us

The PV in that locale is not going to do us any favours at all, not for cold or drier weather.

Crikey, t'would be a tad blowy if that verified Anyone for a game of mid Atlantic darts?

Couldn't agree more with your last paragraph Catacol.

I know who I want to put my money on...

Upwards then downwards hopefully!

Was certainly on the warm side towards the end though

Not really, it took a day for the ensembles to catch up, which is normal. The op will lead the ensembles not the other way round in my experience, so tomorrow I'll expect more of the same from the ensembles, but come the evening it could be a different story.

Yes, this is very much Unknown territory, I've been model watching for 5 years and not seen a setup like it. Bizzare yet I can't wait to see the outcome. I shall sit in my corner and read the input of the experienced posters digest what "could" happen. At least it ain't boring

@BLAST FROM THE PAST if we do see heights towards our NW and a trough to the NE, happy flipping days. I must say I was surprised at the lack of excitement following GP's post because you could sense the anticipation in his post that something is definitely afoot. So I very much look forward to the modelling into the NY. Happy New year everyone. I love this forum, it's the one place in the world that I can truly indulge myself in, that nobody around me gets, which is my passion for the weather. Enjoy the night, drink plenty and I hope 2016 brings happiness to us all!

Cheers @mountain shadow, will keep an eye on that then.

I know deep in la la land, but surely this is the last thing we want to be seeing?

To be honest if you can't post your opinion of what you see without you being shot down because apperently you don't know what your talking about, then good luck to this forum growing the numbers from people learning or daring to post. I'm no expert, but I'll try, and am 100% open to constructive criticism or even correcting what is just wrong, you won't see me saying anything derogatory to anyone in here, pro or not.

Look I understand the issues around the country with flooding which is why I said emotion aside, so don't pull that one. i only had one little scentence on what my preference was, but well done. so here is my backup perfect storm, thanks for the feedback from a respected poster such as yourself....... ECM for example 12z on 27th failed easterly but potential a plenty 28th ok but Atlantic "angry"er 29th less blocky heights not favourable imo With the pv lobe in a less than perfect location

Well one thing for sure is that it certainly wasn't meant to rain like it has in my part of the country today!

I do have a concern about the last few model outputs. Is it just me, or have we gone from accepting that the easterly is not going to occur, but looking at the blocking that has been modelled over the pole, which is now being watered down with each run? Now what looks like the form horse is a big robust high that could very well end up slap bang on top of us. Yeah it's nice n all, but not my bag that's for sure. Emotion aside I would much prefer raging storms slamming our shores. I just feel that the WAA created by Frank was to Far East for us to really benefit. Had that happened nearer Greenland locale, we would be as good as in here as it relates to where a block sets up and cold ends up in mid lattitudes. Cheers Karl