karlos1983

ok we have the link up between Atlantic High and Greenland. steady as she goes..

which one Geordie out of interest? the Azores?

@Mapantz what weather station do you have for WU?

WANT!!!

Indeed, We are discussing the Model output in the Model output forum...... The Azores Low is of particular interest, because depending on how it develops will depend on where it tracks, and if at all as the GFS has just shown. We shall see. (in terms of it ejecting another low towards NW Europe)

Nice black hole

Yup, does exactly what we want it to do, it hasn't chucked anything out. So bearing in mind the Extended ECM and now the 06z, it seems that it is more unlikely than likely. Still, the cold has been watered down in the shorter term quite significantly and when it arrives.

Well perhaps not, but It's is ultimately going to decide the fate of the south of the UK imo. But like you say much time to nail down detail on that. I would prefer it didn't spin another low off and phase with the Trough over the UK to be honest, but I'm not sure if that's an option to be fair.

Hi Geordie I have to agree with you. Im in a state of unease this morning. After being on cloud 9 after the 12z of yesterday, I found the 18z from the GFS worrying. Although I'm confident a cold outbreak is almost certain, I'm still a little underwhelmed this morning RE longevity, more particularly for those further south. I've been watching the Low that has been key for me to keeping the Atlantic ridge joining the Greenland High for days now and I must admit not for 1 minute did I consider that it might spin off another low and attack the south coast as early as it is being modelled this morning. I do take some relief in the extended ECM Steve M has recently posted, which does suggest that it may have overdone the intensity of the low and what trajectory it takes, I prefer more E than NE. Certainly very interesting nonetheless. Overall still good synoptics, but I'm keeping my excitement held back for a bit longer yet, especially for my area. No question areas of the Midlands North could get a pasting from the 168 chart.

I'm actually regretting watching the GFS 18z now Bambi just fell through the ice on that run

Hmm is the greeny high getting cut off from the Atlantic ridge now ?

850 -5 line clearing the English Channel 18 hours earlier on the 18z compared to the 12z GFS. Cold in quicker. Happy

What time do the fax charts come out?

It looks like it has nowhere to go from a coldies perspective

Couldn't agree more, up to 144 agreement of the theme was the most important part and it would seem we have that for now. Very relieved

Well I will be book marking that GFS run. I don't think I can say ever seen a run quite like it. Jaw droppingly amazing. I'm very mindful that it's almost impossible surely to get a run now that can top that. So I'm managing my expectations before the ECM rolls out, and really looking at the theme rather than trying to replicate the GFS, because I can't honestly see that happening. But believe me I live in hope. As for snow chances comments I've seen, I wouldn't rule out snow pretty much anywhere in the uk going on the GFS, how anyone can is beyond me, I just hope we get the chance to worry about that nearer the time. One thing today has shown is that it is absolutely a possibility that it could play out like that. I'm off for a lie down, just WOW!

looks good to me

spot the difference GFS v UKMO @144

I've seen some posts in my time, but the one just posted in the Mod thread, takes the biscuit, the chocolate and everything else in the goodies cupboard

No disrespect but the previous post you made contradicts that statement.

IS that a joke....... for GFS view, go take a look http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=1&heure=6&jour=6&mois=1&annee=2016&archive=1&carte=1 The image you cherry picked from the GFS output is the beginning of its sustained cold outbreak . I'm commenting on what was modelled, not what will happen.

Well their own model is none to shabby from the 00z output. Which one would assume could easily go the same way as the GFS as the modelling at that time frame was almost identical

WSI go for longevity

WSI certainly seem more confident about how long the cold stays. I think I may have to watch the 12z from behind the sofa.

Yes he could well be, but he certainly did state that a turnaround is not going to happen.........and it did. I on the other hand am not yet convinced either way, so won't be guessing.