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karlos1983

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Everything posted by karlos1983

  1. karlos1983
    It was present on the 06z, it's just behaving slightly differently and hanging around like a bad smell compared to the 06z on this run.
  2. karlos1983
    I think I will be retracting my earlier comment, it is now looking like the 06z, But i must stress, I could be wrong. 12z v 06z
  3. karlos1983
    Agreed, but shortwave Drama risk goes up from this point on. nail biting stuff.
  4. karlos1983
    So if my understanding is correct, at around +84 hrs is when we need to be watching where the energy goes, highlighted on the below graphic from the GFS 06z output. Hopefully not SE, we want it to go N. Exciting 12z to come regardless of the outcome. One question I do have, regarding the above, surely the GFS is better at getting to grips with detail in it's own backyard in comparison to the UKMO for example? or is that wide of the mark?
  5. karlos1983
    I'm certainly one to get carried away sometimes (cold wise, sorry Knocker) but i always try and steer clear of petty arguments and digs in the Mod Thread. my word, it's like a kids playground in there today. Oh to be a moderator..... no thanks. I guess opinions are like a certain bodily orifice, everyones got one.
  6. karlos1983
    Yes, I would take the JMA 84 chart, good WAA into Greenland, and seems more akin to UKMO.
  7. karlos1983
    thats +84 not +120 i believe, which is as far as the JMA will go on the 06z
  8. karlos1983
    Interesting update from Ian (via Twitter), which unfortunately got removed from the Mod Thread, although I think it is pretty relevant, but luckily that isnt my decision. Worth a view folks.
  9. karlos1983
    Well lets hope it heads for Africa. It's not uncommon for tropical storms to meander in the Atlantic and actually head back in the same place they came from. Tropical storms and Hurricanes is where I turn my attention to every summer. So this is far from over(in terms of where it goes), it is incredibly difficult to predict where these storms track.
  10. karlos1983
    Not convinced, we shall see fl starts way back as far as I'm concerned, jury still well and truly out on this, and that is currently the ONLY thing that is assured right now.
  11. karlos1983
    The GFS P shows the Subtropical low going east, so thats good news in my book. Although it ends in tears soon after.
  12. karlos1983
    Indeed MWB, just to back that up, the operational does seem on the highside for London.. So very much a case of more runs needed. Until we have consistency this s not nailed on. if the the subtropical low does veer more east than north east, or just stays put, well we will see a different outcome.
  13. karlos1983
    Yes that's exactly where the cold is heading on this run.
  14. karlos1983
    Well if the GFS 18z pulls this out of the bag from here, I'll never watch it again because it appears almost impossible. High now feeding in air from the south. That should be game over in this run
  15. karlos1983
    The signs are positive. There is nout warm about those ECM ENS. Fact
  16. karlos1983
    168 Blocky 240
  17. karlos1983
    @nick sussex I do think 6 was a bit stingy for the ECM, I'd push a 7. But if the uppers it are showing in fl come to fruition, then I'll give it a 10.high5 it's not often the south coast get to see that! HUBBA HUBBA
  18. karlos1983
    Thank goodness the GEM is onboard That would take some shifting. I've heard the GEM is better at dealing with heights over the pole? Fact or Fiction?
  19. karlos1983
    GEM looking good, heights across the pole
  20. karlos1983
    I would much rather take a middle ground of the two to be honest, which stops the High sinking and stops the Cold from being pushed to far north as heights lower in the Atlantic and potentially put us in a westerly airflow.
  21. karlos1983
    and it wants to raise heights over Spain/S France. It's a mess.
  22. karlos1983
    I'm not sure the GFS is dealing with this setup at all well. even with it's 4 runs a day it's struggling to agree with itself.
  23. karlos1983
    Nice from UKMO +120 Much cleaner than GFS It's behaving and showing the trough over the UK the Door. Good riddance
  24. karlos1983
    Yeah I agree, It is a concern, Shortwave drama to thank for that appearing between Greenland and Iceland at around +90, hopefully it will change as frames go on.........
  25. karlos1983
    Warm Air Advection Basically warm air being pumped into the Arctic, which will aid the Heights in that region
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