karlos1983

Tomorrow night.

Blowing an absolute Hooly in Southern Holland with intense hail. I don't feel I'm missing out now :-)

Hi Knocker, wouldn't the ECM make it a more marginal event due to the warm sectors as the system is to Far East?

Well sitting at Gatwick airport and quite simply drewling at this mornings output. GFS fantastic, UKMO fantastic, ECM can do one with its warm sector, needs to be a bit further west. All in all the trend this morning is clear, *potential* for our beloved and sometimes hated CHANNEL LOW!!! Bet it's gone above 30% now, surely 33% :-p If I were living in the Channel Island, I would be watching future runs with great interest! EDIT: I'm going to stick my neck out and say I would be very surprised if most of our region don't at least see snow falling out of th sky at some point between midnight tonight and the back end of next week!

Nirvana run from the GFS!

2cm.......... BANK!!!!!!!!

LOL

Oh I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad, still be in Holland! That's not what I wrote, but you get the point

See, as stated earlier, writing anything off in these setups is mind boggling! blooody typical it will snow tomorrow night when I'm in Holland!! Grrhhhh

Would be nice to see the 264 chart, undercut on the cards there.

I think it would be foolish to write anything off, in a very cold Northerly airmass which is unstable. more runs needed.

In fairness those Ian F tweets were almost 24 hours ago. A lot can change in 24 hours in the world of weather, even a MetO forecast. We should know that better than most in here!

Makes me pig sick seeing news of this massive snow storm to hit NE states. 45-75cm of snow. I'd be happy with 3-6cm so I Could take the nipper sledging, they will able to jump out of the flipping top window come Wednesday morning!

Wow that's impressive, a midnight thunderstorm. Must get myself to Corfe by 11:55pm, don't want to miss it....

I struggle to see from looking at the models the past 24-36 hours what people are worried about for this progged cold spell? Apart from the fact we have to get it to within reliable time frame of course, I'm not worried about will it or won't it snow or the depth of cold. To me this looks a much much better setup for the UK to feel the effects of this spell on a wider scale than the last one. Let's get the pattern into the reliable and then worry about the detail, I'm a lot more upbeat about chances further south this time.

Hmmm wendnesday Thursday looking interesting and I'll be in blinking Holland! Typical.

Yes it does look nice, however...... after the last failed "cold Spell", I'm refusing to get to drawn in this time. ECM needs to follow suit now and this place will be buzzing again I'm sure.

Of course lol

It would be nice to see if the UKMO agrees, we shall see in the next few mins EDIT: looking at +96, there are differences though @120 looking very similar! Nice finish by UKMO @ 144 - BANK

Hmm, I'm in Holland next Wednesday Thursday so the Models bringing the cold in earlier is most welcome!

No UKMO on Meteociel? EDIT: sporadically rolling out now

some of the GEFS purbs give some mouth watering charts in deep fl and blocking does appear in one shape or another in most, as per Ian F comments earlier. but just for fun, run P11 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

And it has to be said, the MetO have pretty much nailed this winter in terms of the forecast they put out!

Because it's not that cold at the source/NE.

Well you say plenty of time, but to get snow on the ground and to stay there will become harder the further into February we go as the sun becomes ever stronger, especially in the south of the UK, which so far this winter has not done well at all. So the less we see these sort of charts, the better! even though in deep la la land