karlos1983

That’s the guy that writes a lot of the Long range forecasts for the MetO. He’s worth a follow seems a decent fella, replies to tweets as well.

LOL yes it does feel we are being trolled! I think that could well be the case! At least once this propagation has happened, a clearer picture should start to emerge.. *hopefully

Yes Weeks 2,3,4 looking good as we head into February Although we’ve been here before, I understand the lack of excitement that this update may bring. But I’d rather it showed this signal than comfirm what some of the more sceptical are possibly thinking!

Week 2,3,4

The graphics didn’t suggest that. They may use that forecast for the 22:00 news on BBC1

Jet way to the south, snow was mentioned with low heights very near or over the UK. Certainly looks a tricky forecasting period coming up with chances a plenty!

BBC forecast looked quite juicy for next week on BBC news channel just now to be honest.

Shame that the ICON didn’t go a few frames further. Scope for a wedge in the perfect position at 120!

It also says keep it model related and more importantly “friendly”

Well the tail doesn’t wag the dog....

Hungarian MetO site should update soon for EC monthly snapshot. It’s usually out by now

An odd run I thought from the EC Det. A thought backed up by the graph form. Very up and down and on it’s own by D10

Exactly PM... yet is the word as far as I’m concerned. I’m not sure if people are aware that the downward propagation is still underway, the signal is for this to reach the surface at the end of January. So as we head to February, anyone writing the background signals such as the SSW off, are doing so prematurely. Also can I just add, that the people that go to extreme lengths to construct in-depth posts as to where we may be heading and why, looking at teleconnections etc, should not be disregarded so flipently when things don’t turn out how people wish, they should actually be commended. People used to say the strat had nothing to do with colder winters if i remember correctly and that has now been well and truly put to bed. Not withstanding the fact it is pretty rude, especially when you don’t have a coherent reply to debate it with, just a throw away comment to say they are useless.

Yeah I know, I was just confused where to post, but I’m over that. I actually like the bit of freedom this thread gives for a bit of humour rather than “it must be deep model analysis only”! You can’t have your cake and eat it, although it appears that’s what some are after ? anyway, easterly on the cards again! Pass me a beer!

Agreed, it’s hard to know where to post..

Yes exactly John. But I think when we use the term it’s usually to our N or NE forcing sliding lows over the uk and bringing snow chances. Obviously wedges of heights could appear anywhere on the globe, but this is usually when many would refer to said wedges on this forum... I think

A wedge of heights to the N or NE of the UK that can direct low pressure system on a more SE trajectory in a sliding fashion over the UK! Is my understanding.

March is always more likely to have Scandinavian Heights than mid-winter. Guessing because the PV begins to break down

I’m almost at my wits end with this winter. I know there’s still a while to go, but all I see at the moment is that stubborn PV lobe and it’s not going anywhere fast. Hideous output this morning, unless you live on pretty high ground in the North! The EC46 update tonight will be interesting.

Bit of a less cold set of T2’s

Goes to show how utterly useless the 18z & 06z are! That’s a staggering data difference on balloon data alone! 12z/00z use 1.6GB and the 06/18z use 99mb

Not sure what impacts it will have, but if the start data is wrong.... god only knows what the low res results are... surprised it didn’t show the moon by +300 to be honest

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real.

Yeah that’s more than just a bit lol

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z If you’re wondering What does this mean?: “It shows the amount of data gone into the initial conditions. More data in usually means a better idea of atmosphere at starting condition.”