karlos1983

Last years SSW was a completely different beast. Was the perfect split with a QTR. I’m quite happy to say the ICON at this juncture is wrong. Possibly been found out. Just an opinion of course

Lift off Stunning chart, don’t care how it got there, it got there!!

I get the feeling the ICON is struggling with this low dropping SE. Guess we will find out with GFS and UKMO shortly

Control backs the Op Extended ENS also looking good The signs are good... steady as she goes

Pete, do i detect a

That GFS run is a prime visual example of how unlikely we are to see heights sink over the uk anytime soon if you're interested @Lloyds32 I need a lay down!

On Meteociel there is an icon called GIF. Click on it, choose your parameters and create the gif. Then copy and paste the link

pure filth from the 06z Synoptically stunning!

usual caveats of being in lala land, but we could do with that low scooting off, before it drags mild air into the mix. But my my, what a run, begs the question where do we go from here on the 12z lol

Euro Trough reinforcements yes please!

Hi L I'm sorry you feel that way. Aggressive reply? Not at all, I'm not an aggressive person in anyway shape or form. But you are correct this is a forum and there is Nothing wrong with you having your opinion, so I've taken the time to reply to your post to just give a more balanced view (in my opinion), based on what the models are actually showing rather than "gut feeling". Part of Forum life is people may not agree with you and therefore a debate will take place. So I'm far from upset, I reply often to your post as they do tend to contradict the actual pattern being modelled more often than not. Sorry if you took my reply in the wrong way. Cheers Karl

That's interesting.. other than gut feeling, do you have any charts to back that rather sweeping statement up? nowhere on this mornings output have i seen the ridge sinking over us in the way you are suggesting. UKMO - nope ECMWF - nope GFS - Nope GEM- Nope If youn refer back to for example, some of @Catacol or @lorenzo 's posts (hope you don't mind me tagging you), you might understand why uk a high is pretty unlikely anytime soon. Take the time to take on board what the more technical posters are saying and you might learn some cool stuff, gut decisions don't usually end well in most situations, definitely not in nwp.

PPN charts in this setup are useless!!! Easterlies almost always get modelled as dry easterlies but seldom end up that way. There will no doubt be troughs popping up in the flow, if we get to the easterly, 48 hours is all you need, sometimes less, to pick up sudden kinks in the isobars etc. When you have cold uppers you can’t rule anything out! Many warnings of snow in winters past have been issued 12/24 hours out. lets get the pattern locked in first

Outlier? I prefer the term trend setter ?

Crikey! Not sure how anyone musters up anything negative about the overnight runs. 1. Did the UKMO improve? Check 2. Do the ECM and GFS still show and easterly? Check 3. Are we very much in the winter games for the first time this winter? Check EC mean at 144 (important time frame) BINGO ps some of you wake up far too early to look at the models. I’d have to peel my eyes open and nail them to my forehead at that hour.

It’s certainly a tighter cold cluster

Agree, but this summer the UKMO didn’t do well in Hurricane season. ECM was supreme, even 7 days out, which with tropical storms is no mean feat, never mind cat4/5 hurricanes. UKMO does tend to struggle upstream when there’s a lot of noise, so I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t have any factual evidence of that, but Hurricane season is my 2nd favourite time of year, so it just sticks in my mind. ENS looking good still, although a bit more spread towards the end than of late. But nothing really to grumble about too much

Ah I see, well sarcasm is ill advised in this forum, it moves to fast.

4 weeks earlier . Should it play out like that, any snow will not be going anywhere fast

No. Factual -8 uppers + ppn = snow nothing marginal about it

Errrrmmmm there’s not much marginal about -8 uppers

Oh alright then, if I must

Looks fine to me.... 144 is enough for me and the gfs

Week 2,1,3,4 sorry got them mixed up. Looking good Incredibly stubborn Euro trough So Atlantic ridge to scandi by looks of it ?

Quite right Mike, code development is the same, which is my life , Bayesian approach should really be adopted to everything we do lol. Quite prudent in this situation as you have pointed out!