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Everything posted by karlos1983
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been rather critical of the gfs this year, but, and I’m talking to you GFS, just when I think you couldn’t be anymore stupid, you go and do this PS D.Bett obviously got told, because he just said next week winds from the east and snow likely it looked like it hurt -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECM is sleeping in the streets of Baghdad! I’m not happy with it, and if it doesn’t change it’s tune in the morning it’s not getting any more RAM! -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t care if it’s a mince pie, I want a bite -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fair enough RD, was just a bit of fun, like the shaky stuff, . looking like a good run anyway -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
However, it’s accelerated the ridging rather than delay it. You should stick to your advice because it was good advice let it run a wee while. -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s a touch of irony in your post sir. Let it run a while -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s literally zero change that I can see so far on the 18z. I wear glasses, but I’m pretty sure it’s almost identical out to +90 18z/12z -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just the size of the envelope. Look at the ensembles graph. The Det could have sat anywhere in that envelope, we just happen to have seen a few cold runs recently. Time will tell, but the 12z can’t be disregarded -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t think we can argue that actually the mean isn’t as good as his morning. But I would prefer to wait until I see it in graph format. Still cold all the way through however. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fair enough -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Feb have you not seen 126 above?Looks banging to me -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks fine to me, jets digging further south. I’m not sure how much use a Mean is at 90 hrs out though to be honest -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
True Daniel, but on graph format, probably a different story -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
19:42-19:48 roughly -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To expect to see an EC Det on the cold side of the mean every run is probably asking too much. This is still shaping up to be a good run, which should really give more confidence to all. Yeah we want it at the first bite and that still looks odds on to me, but if not, it certainly doesn’t look like we’d need to wait long for bite No.2 -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ahem, let us never speak of that event again..... Ever... -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! OR NOT! They look just fine Especially into next week, nice tight grouping -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Southward correction would be nice To be honest just seeing the blocking signal retained this afternoon is good enough for me, detail can come later.