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Allseasons-Si

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Posts posted by Allseasons-Si

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

    The issue being that where we were orginally seeing solidly -AO charts being churned out, we’re now seeing strengthening TPV.

    This is due to the failed reversal IMO. So we are seemingly reliant on Atlantic sector amplification…which really isn’t ideal to hang your hat on.

    Would this not take into effect until a couple of weeks as the landing date for the near reversal is the 6th Jan?

    don't shoot me Aaron as i am not that clued up about up above so just asking🙂

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    OK guy's let's keep it friendly in here please,do remember this is a public forum that anyone can read

    please keep it model thread related with some backup as to what you are explaining with a bit more info,one liners/moaning and off topic post's will get moved or removed

    there is a moans thread,there is a meto thread and a historic thread of which you all know about

    thank you.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think everyone has had too many sherry's cos as far as i am concerned the charts was showing height's past day ten if memory serves but now we are seeing this been brought forward before day ten as in heights starting to build in the Atlantic,no model is going to nail a day ten chart just yet so sit tight and see how the next few days pan's out

    don't forget that the 12z has been a good upgrade today so don't let one chart (aka the pub run) spoil your evening when it doesn't show what you want it to show

    it does have better amp than the 12z as i stated in my post^^ but goes teet's up,...IN FL but hey that's just that fl.

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Allseasons-Si

    Aaannnddd!! ,...what's wrong with this...

    clearly the height's are pushing further north than the 12z,people just don't let the models roll out before commenting on then.

    18z v's 12z.

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.7f4475afc3b6ec04cbb22db2a39c94f8.pnggfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.79c47d4f408c977951426499cbbb6a27.png

    and just to add,it has a better vertical WAA N profile than the 12z NE profile.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Allseasons-Si
    typo

    Hey gang,...not been on today as i have been busy with stuff but it's nice to see upgrades in the models

    and finally we are starting to see some of the mild outliers getting ironed out on the ens

    ECM 12z v's 00z

    ens_image(1).thumb.png.2cd3a93be509e05acc286346953a4a83.pngens_image.thumb.png.7dfe738963a86b710dbec5ae28de7d40.png

    gefs 12z v's 00z

    ens_image(3).thumb.png.a7c690258b94cc66472f6e4df7506654.pngens_image(2).thumb.png.0a369d3a37cc36035ba3c809b7049ab3.png

    cracking set of means at day ten too

    EDH1-240.thumb.gif.d4428a87af5a0fea7cd199900f1311f2.gifgensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.2058a91fa6f0c7fbc2e93127424c74d4.png

    gensnh-51-0-240.thumb.png.6e9af261be73c617354154fd5337c13f.pnggensnh-31-0-240.thumb.png.78f5aa8494e5053ace6af5f827bf9e0a.png

    EDH101-240.thumb.gif.e00b961351d6f3e9daf50ce24c61ad25.gifgensnh-31-5-240.thumb.png.6076bcd9d4a5786b8d3b1d4ab628fa59.png

    De-built NE'ly's are increasing to 66% from two day's ago

    2.thumb.png.c1494fc1d1b3350f79208f1331461aec.png1.thumb.png.41364350802c8242fabb680a7c14f04a.png

    my optimism has crept up slight today so my glass is half full but not full yet and i just hope that we can get enough amplitude to this high propped up by lower height's to our south

    on to the 18z we go😉

     

    • Like 15
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Swings on roundabouts really when it comes to the models,the 18z control run has an amplified run similar to the 12z op then the 18z op similar to the 12z control

    this tells me that the models don't have a scooby on what is going on past day 6>,it all boils down to how the phasing of the lows out of the NE states behave at that said time

    the 18z control does not phase with the downstream trough and it stays seperate and heads E/SE whereas the 18z op phases the low with the downstream trough and sends it NE

    so lots to keep tabs on over the coming days

    I know which one i would back but the gefs isn't that bad really

    day ten...

    eps_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.ef299bf0d9bdf1b572c5f1ebc064d6ca.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.thumb.png.0ddc3a59bb4011be4e944ae889fd151e.png

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Allseasons-Si

    2 hours ago, johncam said:

    This is the model thread or is it not? and that is the mean at the end , it heads in the wrong direction 

     

    2 hours ago, johncam said:

    But when other posters post a mean that far out that is showing cold that is ok we can't be selective,  that's what it shows 

    Sorry for the confusion and the debates about the mean charts at day 16 and you are quite right to post it in here but just make sure that you put some more info into your post stating what your chart/s shows,the point i was trying to say to you earlier is that there is so much happening well before the16 days mean chart that there is so many scenario's that may happen that it skews the mean chart because there are different paths on the ens(not the same as the ops) that these will or could take and so then we would look for trends this far out,i hope that helps

    i too also post mean charts and we all do it to see if there is a change in them within 24 hrs for better or for worse

    sadly we can't compare mean charts from the day before because there isn't an archive for those(not on meteocial anyway) to compare unless you save them to your device

    anyway,...talking about mean charts,the EPS is pretty good,the gefs not so good

    EPS v's gefs 12z,obviously i would like the EPS to be correct here but we need some support from the gefs

    gensnh-51-1-360.thumb.png.5f23882c4bed35e543f5071743e56f26.pnggensnh-31-1-360.thumb.png.2841e66663e9aa3513676d1de9d2a9bb.png

    and the cpc backs up the EPS in regards to +ve heights in the Atlantic and has not changed from last evening

    814day_03.thumb.gif.d76944e0f00b8c132daa3fca6aba3666.gif

    the NAO/AO still in a neg phase so all is good at the moment.

    nao_gefs.sprd2.thumb.png.5162585a1f8e563897874c67dd70f12a.pngao_gefs.sprd2.thumb.png.8b93b57f244ff46e492a35904c80e30e.png

     

     

    • Like 14

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, DCee said:

    UK high pressure illustrated again.

    With the energy to the East, the cold will slide into Europe and beyond. 

    This feels like a likely outcome given where we are. Good thing is the HP will be quite sunny and mild, very few frosts in the SE.

    h850t850eu-4.png

    Certainly not mild when you have -digit numbers across the country,if you have high preasure over the UK you will have inverted cold as in colder air condenses and decends in the center due to slack winds.

     

    • Like 8
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