Allseasons-Si

January 7

13 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Once again... That is not a polar low

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

polar low, isn't it like a 'runner' feature, but north to south in the flow, rather than west to east

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you look back through the run then you’ll see a kink in the isobars around day 9. That becomes a shortwave which eventually develops into the system that trundles towards Scotland

it’s not what I would consider a polar low but between us, we’ve managed to derail the thread

It is embedded in arctic airmass and formed off the south coast of Iceland and pushes S/SE,i would class that as a polar low

anyway,let's move on from this now and i do hope some crop up in the unstable airflow

January 7

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic. Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me

a snippet from John holmes:-

Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5000247

January 7

OK i know i started the polar low story from the Ec control but let's not go down the polar low history

Not much in the ICON IMO but the one thing i see is a more squashed neg tilted low in the Atlantic allowing heights to migrate west better.

January 7

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic. Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me

a snippet from John holmes:-

Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

January 7

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Would uppers of -4 be any good though?

All academic this far out but i would suspect frontal snow as it hits the cold air in place with a slightly milder sector in the core then colder poss back edge snow and snow showers after but it's origins are from the N/NW so could be an all snow maker

January 7

Ec control throws a polar low in the mix

January 7

The CPC is still rock solid

January 7

EPS mean from 168,...not bad...

January 7

Here is the NAVGEM at 180 @Mark wheeler

another good looking chart.

January 7

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Have you a link to this please as I can only access later for some reason. Or I am just slightly looking in the wrong place .

Here you go Mark

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

had to edit as that link was not working.

January 7

The ECM has -11 in the SE t24.

January 7

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 12 GEFS is actually an upgrade on the 06z in that there’s still a ridge showing, and less movement of the PV from Siberia to the pole.

Little steps to greatness !!

Liking the control Ali

Scandi inbound?

January 7

Gem control following the op if not better...

192.

mean at said timeframe,...whooooosh!!!!

January 7

A cracking start to the 12z

ICON...

January 7

Day ten geps mean,...we are back on track.

January 6

The models will always struggle with setups like this that isn't the norm (aka)zonal

we have a firm baseplate on where we are heading now and that's for height's to migrate NW,...then the fun game starts as to how the NWP's handle what's to come next after the initial push of height's into Greenland,this has been an epic chase that we haven't seen for some time,...and it still is

great MOD discussion,...and it will continue

January 6

Stronger heights on this run compared to the 12z,....lets go

January 6

The gfs finally looks very good at 144.

January 6

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Not sure whether this has been posted today or not - I've had to skim the thread a bit due to shortage of time so apologies if it has.

Wow - just wow. Not sure I've seen many better of these.

John Holmes put out a great post earlier today that ties in with it. Let's make the most of this - it could be 5+ years again before we see anything quite like it.

Yes mate,posted them ealier.

January 6

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

GEFS12z P14 is a nightmare, which I sincerely hope will not come to fruition:

Are you trying to enforce some milder weather,you seem to be cherry picking them out on every run,i think you need to join the MRA (mild rampers association)

here are some better charts for you and everyone else

EPS.

now onto the 18z,...no mild cherry picking in here please

January 6

Well somethings got to give because the CPC remains resolute.

January 6

5 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but is this evidence that the ECZm op was in fact an outlier

Yes,the black line is the op and the red line is the mean,the shaded purple is the ens sread,hope that helps

i have corrected my post above as i didn't state the op.

January 6

The EC op was an outlier,watching the EPS rolling out now.

January 6

The EC is better though for height's than the 00z,look at the difference between the two.

January 6

Better retrogression of heights in the Atlantic from the EC at 144 compared to this mornings 00z run so should be a lot better amplification into Greenland at 168.

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