Allseasons-Si

January 9

I am back and i did miss the ECM run as i had to nip out and another cracking run it was too and just about anyone could see some snow over the next two weeks

i just thought i would add the NAVGEM below before having a look at some other stuff,a nice blocking high there on this run with no phasing issues with our northerly trough with the ESB trough

It is going to turn colder as we all know after the mild-er blip from the 11th-12th as the gefs and EPS ens show and i think that this cold spell is starting to have a bit more legs to it

the cpc still banging the blocking drum,...this has been consistant for some days now and you can see in the ext'd anomaly the lower heights to our SW,this is that feature that we see on the dets and to some extent on the means to heralding an approach of lower preasure from the SW under the base of our northerly trough,it does look to me that it slides south of the UK but this is just an anomaly but it looks good to me

EC ens graph 850's and 2m temps look cold with the op on the mild side of the pack of 850's but look at the 2m temps,this tells me that the op is still cold at the surface.

well that's my brief look at things,...on to the 18z we go them

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004085

January 9

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Is anyone else exhausted from the build up to this. It seems to be ongoing since Christmas!! In my time on here I don't ever remember such a drawn out event, and yet still the goods or day 7 and further!! We must be averaging 3/4 pages an hour now for about 19days and nought to show for it

I'll give it an extra day and if the wishy washy charts and chopping charging are still there am packing it in. Sorry guys but the rollercoaster is designed as a short journey for a reason. This place is gone like the titanic and that Greeny high is sinking!! Let's see where the 18z goes, now rolling

Nope

It has been a great build up since the start of the new year and may it continue,also we are in prime territory (Jan) for it to happen and then we have Feb to start again ha ha,...love it

there has been some great insightfull post's on here over the last few weeks models watching and i am sure that everyone including newbies and the experienced alike are also taking a lot in,i for sure have been over the years that i have been on here,a great lurning experience that's for sure

great comunity in here barring the odd bickering and imbyism which does spoil it for some,...it's always the case regarding who gets snow and who doesn't but i will tell everyone on here that it is difficult for everyone in the UK to get snow from one cold spell

i wish all the best for this cold spell and get snow but if you don't,...don't blame the weather there is always the next time eh.

January 9

I am back and i did miss the ECM run as i had to nip out and another cracking run it was too and just about anyone could see some snow over the next two weeks

i just thought i would add the NAVGEM below before having a look at some other stuff,a nice blocking high there on this run with no phasing issues with our northerly trough with the ESB trough

It is going to turn colder as we all know after the mild-er blip from the 11th-12th as the gefs and EPS ens show and i think that this cold spell is starting to have a bit more legs to it

the cpc still banging the blocking drum,...this has been consistant for some days now and you can see in the ext'd anomaly the lower heights to our SW,this is that feature that we see on the dets and to some extent on the means to heralding an approach of lower preasure from the SW under the base of our northerly trough,it does look to me that it slides south of the UK but this is just an anomaly but it looks good to me

EC ens graph 850's and 2m temps look cold with the op on the mild side of the pack of 850's but look at the 2m temps,this tells me that the op is still cold at the surface.

well that's my brief look at things,...on to the 18z we go them

January 9

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

How do you know it would phase?

The Greenland heights could be reinforced from the low in the Atlantic.

Also, there's about 1000 miles between those systems, a lot can happen

We wouldn't know that yet as it's relatively in fl but you can see the notion on this gif,i hope it doesn't happen as a lot of us don't want it to happen,reading between the lines of the Meto though sounds V promising so who knows.

January 9

5 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks good to me, purple lobe will drop down onto us in the next couple of days following this.

Unfortunately it would phase with the ESB trough(red arrow),so not that good really,we need clean seperation of these two for height's to sustain the pattern.

January 9

UKMO at 168,...not a disaster like the gfs...but could of been better,still a way to go yet to be resolved.

January 9

UKMO/ICON 144,... LOVELY.

the gfs,...well i have stopped viewing it

January 9

UKMO/ICON and the gfs at 120,...gfs what are you doing to us

cracking UKMO and that it's better than the ICON.

January 9

UKMO/ICON at 96,...yes

gfs,...mmm.

January 9

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This? Could you add a photo with a comment please be really useful.

That's the Alaskan ridge,the ESB ridge is off NE Canada here...

January 9

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We’re trying to build up our defences against the Dark Force as in the Atlantic attack . The Death Star will try and attack the weak point of any blocking .

Thats why we want that straight flow and block in a better position before Darth Vader and his sidekicks attack .

Its crucial to have a solid start , if you see that bulge in the flow early and the block orientating more ne sw it’s easier for Vader to break through our defences.

At that point the battle is almost lost .

# Save Princess Leia !

but seriously,...i hope the other 12z follow the ICON,it was sensational to watch it unfold

may the force be with us

January 9

The difference is huge here,...for the better,...great start to the 12z

January 9

Clean as a whistle this run

ICON

12z v's 00z

January 8

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

History tells us it matters very much indeed. We have seen in several occasions over the years how these type of weak wedges are too weak closer to the time and leave Atlantic back in. Cold on paper, reality casts doubt on duration of cold

It is just one run and one run that i am commenting on,the low/trough is further south on this run regardless of height's to our NE,we are still in cold air by a marked trough to our NE driving the pattern and what ever encroaches us from the west SW hitting the cold air will have a battleground scenario written all over it

we may well not hold the pattern for long but at least we have a chance of seeing some snow somewhere over the UK in this period,...where is yet to be decided

high risk high reward.

January 8

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Huge differences between GFS / ECM at day 8 mark.

Hard to see much longevity coming from this. Where have all the greens and yellows gone to the north west?

It doesn't matter as long as we have cold over the Uk whilst troughs/lows slide E/SE ,would keep us in the game

the cold is further south on this run too.

January 8

The gfs moves the SW low into a better slider territory,...slide it further east as the 18z show would keep us in with the colder game

18z v's 12z.

January 8

19 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

It would be nice to see this being somewhere near accurate as well. Certainly has support in the early stages of progression