[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

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[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I just want to refresh everyone's memory here

and why is everyone looking at a breakdown 7+days away when this cold spell hasn't even started yet,7 days is a very long time in meteology and anything is possible up until then

we have a cold and unstable airflow forecast from the north and it is damn right pointless guessing when and where snow will fall because it is one of the hardest weather types to predict and there will be disturbances popping up at very short notice

it's going to be cold,...it's going to be frosty,we have no rain forecast,we get out on a lovely cold crisp walk instead of dreary grey sky's with drizzle keeping us in and feeling depressed

and the models can and will change(not by much) but it will look different in the models come next weekend i garentee that to what we are seeing for next weekend ATM

We have a quick race into phase 6-7 on the MJO plots come the end of the month so edure a brief blast of zonal(IF it does happen) ,then back to another chase beginning of Feb

@MATTWOLVES 3  i am glad that you have your dad's ashes by your side and he will always be by your side pal,% all the best to you my friend

in the meantime enjoy the cold crisp weather

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If London is good below the -5 line,then all is good

good night guys

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

That mean is,...i mean is a beauty

my local and London flatlining below the -5 isotherm,...take note,...this is coming to a place near you.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Look at the mean 850's now -8 into the midlands than the borders of Scotland

we are still upgrading in this regard,...how much upgrades can we take,...all of them

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The control and mean are both an upgrade at 120,...keep the upgrades coming,....pleeeeaaaaase

18z v's 12z

short gefs ens,...-10 mean

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Unfortunately since then it's continued to track southwards across all modelling & ensemble suites. the Met said it was a lower probability (still cannot work out why, these systems generally do trend south) but todays model trends have placed that in the "highest probability" risk. 

Because the cold pool to our north is intensifying on each run= deflecting them further south

i said the other night that this trough to our N/NE is the main player here

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

People worried about snow chances need to keep a calm head on here,we have a cold spell coming,...granted but the snow chances will come at short range,...believe me.

Edit: @Met4Cast just said the same

and it is true,...get the cold in first,snow will folow.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

OH WOW!!!

SW system quashed,...we stay in the cold game for longer +look at the seperation of pv lobes and to top that a trough out to our west get sheared off completely.

what a run.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

What a difference in terms of 850's because the shortwave comes down from the north instead of phasing with the pv lobe over the NE states

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The gfs is a big upgrade in keeping the two pv lobes apart,...a lot better.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would have liked that one to have run longer.  Just starting to hint at keeping the lobes apart a bit longer there at the end, which is kind of what I’m expecting to see.  Don’t think we’ll see it on GFS, as that model is still a bit behind the curve in my view, but maybe on tomorrow’s 0z runs.

Yes me too,...it's a shame they don't add extra like the 00z/12z upto t180 so i suppose we will see in the morning if it keeps the two vortices apart longer,keep these apart for longer prolongs the cold spell,...simple's

looking at the cpc,...the 6-10 dayer keeps us in the cold pattern but the ext'd has shifted to the other medium range models unfortunately.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

No shortwave drama around S Greenland on the 18z ICON hence the further push of colder air into the UK thanks to a cleaner flow.

18z t114 v's 12z t120.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Guess what!!!

the gfs is a mild outlier *AGAIN*

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

UKMO 168

thank you very much.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

7 hours ago, toggerob said:

Magnitude 4.5 quake has just occurred right under Grimsvotn this morning at 06:53, Depth (to be confirmed) at roughly 100 meters (0.1km)

This set off a glacial flood...

Glacial Outburst Flood Has Begun in Grímsvötn

WWW.ICELANDREVIEW.COM

---

A glacial outburst flood has begun in Grímsvötn, experts have confirmed. An M4.3 earthquake occured at the site this morning.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This is a really good set of gefs ens for London.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The gfs was way in la la land on the ens,...bodes well in keeping the low further south...

that is a good ens set for London BTW

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The control has the low further SE than the 12z

The mean is colder,...probably tracking the mid week storm further south.

the ens for London are colder than the 12z via this midweek storm compared to the 12z...

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Hi everyone,been lurking but not much of a contribution today as i have been ill overnight and today,much better now though

interestingly looking at the EC46 there does seem to be a relent in the cold as we move onto the latter stages of Jan(fun times before this though for quite a few peeps) but this may be a temp blip looking at this Weather regimes probabilities graph

it shows (as we know) a blocking(red) then an Atlantic ridge(purple) then a -NAO(green) upto the 19th/20th then a relent in the scenario's for cold weather but doesn't mean that Zonal will be the form horse(blue) as this could mean that the jet could be further south,...southerly +NAO if you like but we don't know this yet but what about after this?

this does look(ATM) that this will be a temprary afair as we loose the zonal signature (blue)as we enter the new month to more of a blocking regime

also looking at the Time-longitudes diagram,this reflects the above,i have marked out the scenario's on the basis of this chart below,GH for Greenland high(red) on which we know that the foundations is set for this,zonal (blue) for the latter part of the month,but looking ahead there is tentative signs that blocking to our NE at the end of the month (SH=Scandi high) may take a foothold then migrate somewhere nr the UK(UH=UK high) then migrate W/NW again,all speculative ATM but something to watch for

in the meantime,...a great week of model watching to get through in terms of who will get the snow midweek next week

And one final note or two,...great post's again from @Catacol @Tamara @Met4Cast @TEITS and a good selection in here too

but please keep the IMBY post's to the regionals where they do belong,...thankyou.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

There is my arctic rabbit sitting proud,i remember a cold spell showing the same synoptic charts(cannot remember the year) that produced.

i really must go now,...hold the fort and be nice

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just had an hickup,....really?

i love this chase ha ha.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

One thing that is bullish about the gfs is them Alaskan heights,i don't know what impacts it has down the line but is this forcing the jet further south in our local?

it does seem to be forcing colder weather down into north America.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I think the gfs needs a safehouse

It does get the jet further south though,...bless it

so there could be some surprises from the mediocre run

even though i support Man Utd,this model reminds me of it ATM

over to the overnight crew,...i am out

night guys.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

But wait,...it might be sniffing a new pattern,...watch for height's here(black arrow)