Allseasons-Si

January 8

19 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

It would be nice to see this being somewhere near accurate as well. Certainly has support in the early stages of progression

Just a quick one whilst Man utd are at half time

this is good going forward to get us out of a quick unfavourable position to race round to more of a favourable position

latest CPC however kepping in with the blocking theme to our NW,i am still happy with that

January 8

EPS mean from 144...

216 v's 240 00z,...oh yes.

January 8

Brilliant ECM,...very cold with disturbancies in the flow...

sorry for the quick post as i am doing dinner.

January 7

Last one from me tonight as i am pushing it for 5am tomorrow

the mean at 192 is a sniff better than the 12z...

January 7

My deep dive of today allbeit short

GN you happy bunch

onwards and upwards in terms of upgrades tomorrow.

January 7

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

On a frozen bench

but in all seriousness i do hope that the gefs ens follows the op

a disturbance running N>S on this run,...a polar low?

January 7

Upgrades all round today and the 18z just tips it,...good old pub classic.

January 7

How many runs have we watched this count down?

and now within touching distance because broadly speaking the output has been very good since the sniff of all this

the two ingredients,...height's into Greenland and trough from the north,...it has been marked out for some time now.

January 7

This is nice if i am honest

January 7

13 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Once again... That is not a polar low

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

polar low, isn't it like a 'runner' feature, but north to south in the flow, rather than west to east

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you look back through the run then you’ll see a kink in the isobars around day 9. That becomes a shortwave which eventually develops into the system that trundles towards Scotland

it’s not what I would consider a polar low but between us, we’ve managed to derail the thread

It is embedded in arctic airmass and formed off the south coast of Iceland and pushes S/SE,i would class that as a polar low

anyway,let's move on from this now and i do hope some crop up in the unstable airflow

January 7

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic. Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me

a snippet from John holmes:-

Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5000247

January 7

OK i know i started the polar low story from the Ec control but let's not go down the polar low history

Not much in the ICON IMO but the one thing i see is a more squashed neg tilted low in the Atlantic allowing heights to migrate west better.

January 7

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic. Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me

a snippet from John holmes:-

Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

January 7

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Would uppers of -4 be any good though?

All academic this far out but i would suspect frontal snow as it hits the cold air in place with a slightly milder sector in the core then colder poss back edge snow and snow showers after but it's origins are from the N/NW so could be an all snow maker

January 7

Ec control throws a polar low in the mix

January 7

The CPC is still rock solid

January 7

EPS mean from 168,...not bad...

January 7

Here is the NAVGEM at 180 @Mark wheeler

another good looking chart.

January 7

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Have you a link to this please as I can only access later for some reason. Or I am just slightly looking in the wrong place .

Here you go Mark

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

had to edit as that link was not working.

January 7

The ECM has -11 in the SE t24.

January 7

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 12 GEFS is actually an upgrade on the 06z in that there’s still a ridge showing, and less movement of the PV from Siberia to the pole.

Little steps to greatness !!

Liking the control Ali

Scandi inbound?

January 7

Gem control following the op if not better...

192.

mean at said timeframe,...whooooosh!!!!

January 7

A cracking start to the 12z

ICON...

January 7

Day ten geps mean,...we are back on track.

January 6

The models will always struggle with setups like this that isn't the norm (aka)zonal

we have a firm baseplate on where we are heading now and that's for height's to migrate NW,...then the fun game starts as to how the NWP's handle what's to come next after the initial push of height's into Greenland,this has been an epic chase that we haven't seen for some time,...and it still is

great MOD discussion,...and it will continue

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