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Everything posted by Allseasons-Si
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening everyone i would just like to put my mammoth tooth into all this controversy as this thread looks like a slanging match at times(when doesn't it!) lol come on guys i know that we are all looking for some summer loving weather and we have had that in spring/early summer while we was in lock-down,didn't everyone enjoy it,i know for a fact that i did and i wouldn't of enjoyed it if i was working we cannot change the weather and neither can the models and the summer charts are always in fl as well as the charts in winter show winter Narnia things can flip on a coin in regards of NWP'S as i have stated before whether it be winter or in summer,if there is no strong signal in the models don't trust it a look at the CPC 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 day outlook suggest's that there is no signal for a hp cell in our local with upper flow mainly westerly/northwesterly with ebb and flow of the Azores ridging in at times in the south a look at the day ten means from the ecm/gefs also show a predominantly W/NW flow i have been a bit pessimistic since my last post hence why i have not posted that much in here recently,i just hope that the fortunes change soon i too want some summery charts to appear,but in the meantime we just have to sit it out and hopefully things change quickly. -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
Is it going to be a late one tonight? nothing to report here this evening. and typical,it's clear as a bell too. -
Tornado threat 18th March onward
Allseasons-Si replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Storm Chase USA
Footage of the tornado that touched down north of Elbow lake,Minnesota earlier, he didn't have a cracked windscreen at the start. -
Tornado threat 18th March onward
Allseasons-Si replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Storm Chase USA
Funnel on Basehunters chasing Live Storm Chasing & Tornados WWW.SEVERESTUDIOS.COM Experience live storm chasing & watch top storm chasers stream dashboard video of tornados and extreme weather as it happens. Compatible with Android & iOS. -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is and i should of mentioned that in my post above -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening all there has been some fantastic post's in here again today and thanks to Tamara again for her super post lets have a gander:- ecm/gefs mean at day ten shows some build of heights/pressure esp the south of the UK,the gefs more bullish with this as downstream trough in the Atlantic is more amplified,the 850's pretty similar though,can we get that cauldron to the south in Spain to pump northwards? the temps look like responding next week esp later in the week and lastly the cpc 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 days a tad better than two days ago but still hardly screams plume type scenario,dryer yes next week but beyond that is a little subdued but upper flow mainly westerly so looking at the above,a fine spell for next week then probably unsettled again as we go into the following weekend and week after but this is crystal ball territory later's. -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a quick one before i dash off to work the gefs mean(NH) is looking good at day ten with the tpv way out over Greenland and N Canada,even out to day sixteen is still looking good London gefs ens steady as she goes but i will have a check at the cpc anomaly's when i get in tonight to see if they shift the pattern in favor of what the models(NWP's) are showing later's. -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
I will just be turning in then as i am on afters this week for the first time since March so hopefully plenty more sightings in the next few days,i will try and get some snaps later,twilight permitting without cloud of course. -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
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Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
Yes i am seeing them here too,going out to get some pics if the cloud bugger's off. -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening all,i hope that you all are safe and well as others have said there looks to be a fine spell on the cards after this week coming judging by the means from ecm and gfs at day ten and if we can get that trough out in the Atlantic to behave kindly in a way that it stays out there then we may get some warmer weather from the south/southwest,dig it further south then we would have another plume setup ecm and gefs ens are nae bad either and i hope it's the only way up with those temps but.... i am still not convinced by the fine weather that the NWP's are showing because the latest cpc 500 mb outlook anomaly's show +ve heights to our N/NW with upper flow W/NW,shift these heights a bit further E/SE then we would be in a better position for finer warmer weather the winner though goes to the jma this evening,what a chart i am on the fence for now until nearer the time. -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Zak a good day ten indeed and to add to that including the ECM,the gfs op,control and mean at day ten are also showing some settled conditions,are we going to see a trend here,i hope so a quick glance at the pressure chart and the ens look quiet consistent up to the 13th(black circle) but huge scatter afterwards,it is from the 13th that i will be keeping my tabs on to see if we can gain on some more height's the JMA last night was a good run out to 264 but this is pushing the tin a bit tonight's JMA at 192 ain't bad either i have not posted for a couple of days because there wasn't that much to post about really and it has just been mundane weather all week and i would be one of the first to jump on here if there is even the sniff of decent weather showing in the models but lets not get too carried away ATM pubs open tomorrow....yay! but lets be sensible peeps have a good evening and weekend all and stay safe. -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
Love that first pic Rob with the dark cumulonimbus in the foreground and sets a nice contrast,well done. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doomsday...you are starting to sound like the Daily Express just kidding mate,yes it's looking unsettled next week but there is growing sign's that things look to improve into week two of next month and don't get hung up on the NWP's as they are as fickle as they always are past 120> tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW. so hang on in there mate and lets see how this pans out as we enter July Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I will have some of this too...from the JMA although not overly warm but from there you would favor that hp cell to drift further E/NE it would be sods law that it would turn out hot second week of July just as i would start my first afters shift since March still not complaining though as last week was superb whilst i was off with all the heat and storms. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Allseasons-Si replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
JFF... i want the control to be in control -
Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020
Allseasons-Si replied to Arnie Pie's topic in Space, Science & nature
It's an absolute pleasure to be viewing these photo's,and thanks to all the other contributors too on this thread Thanks @Weather-history for this fine time-lapse,love the Lenticuli type clouds too in the foreground heading a separate way,stunning.