Allseasons-Si

For tomorrow Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jul 2020 ISSUED 21:08 UTC Thu 23 Jul 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan On Friday evening and night, increase mid-level instability and steepening mid-level lapse rates in the vicinity of the cold front could result in some embedded elevated convection evolving across parts of Ireland, drifting towards SW Scotland, NW Wales and NW England. Forecast profiles exhibit moist low/mid-levels overlain by a rather dry mid/upper level layer. While a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible in these areas, confidence in much in the way of lightning is rather low. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Saturday still looking interesting,i may throw a chase day in

Hey guys not posted for a while as it has been quite boring weather wise but some interest in the models as you lot have already covered are starting to show...at last,now at the moment this looks like a fairly brief affair of a plume starting to show later next week,i have been keeping a close eye on this as the carrot is starting to dangle further west in turns of this low out west an example of the ecm at day ten 3 days ago had a feed from the NW and now compare it to the day 7 from the 12z this afternoon the gfs for that same period and i have to say the the gfs is more in line of what it showed at day ten than the ecm,how ironic...!!!! and lastly the latest from cpc tonight days 6-10 has us with a brief window of opportunity to drag in some warmer air from the S/SW with -ve heights in the Atlantic but then this pushers east in the extended but will it? i do hope this plume comes off to savior summer,it has been dross of late(up here anyway) on wards and upwards i hope laters.

Evening everyone i would just like to put my mammoth tooth into all this controversy as this thread looks like a slanging match at times(when doesn't it!) lol come on guys i know that we are all looking for some summer loving weather and we have had that in spring/early summer while we was in lock-down,didn't everyone enjoy it,i know for a fact that i did and i wouldn't of enjoyed it if i was working we cannot change the weather and neither can the models and the summer charts are always in fl as well as the charts in winter show winter Narnia things can flip on a coin in regards of NWP'S as i have stated before whether it be winter or in summer,if there is no strong signal in the models don't trust it a look at the CPC 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 day outlook suggest's that there is no signal for a hp cell in our local with upper flow mainly westerly/northwesterly with ebb and flow of the Azores ridging in at times in the south a look at the day ten means from the ecm/gefs also show a predominantly W/NW flow i have been a bit pessimistic since my last post hence why i have not posted that much in here recently,i just hope that the fortunes change soon i too want some summery charts to appear,but in the meantime we just have to sit it out and hopefully things change quickly.

Is it going to be a late one tonight? nothing to report here this evening. and typical,it's clear as a bell too.

Footage of the tornado that touched down north of Elbow lake,Minnesota earlier, he didn't have a cracked windscreen at the start.

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It is and i should of mentioned that in my post above

Looks a bit dodgy with that Icelandic low at 120 v's 12z 126 more Icelandic low dramas

Evening all there has been some fantastic post's in here again today and thanks to Tamara again for her super post lets have a gander:- ecm/gefs mean at day ten shows some build of heights/pressure esp the south of the UK,the gefs more bullish with this as downstream trough in the Atlantic is more amplified,the 850's pretty similar though,can we get that cauldron to the south in Spain to pump northwards? the temps look like responding next week esp later in the week and lastly the cpc 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 days a tad better than two days ago but still hardly screams plume type scenario,dryer yes next week but beyond that is a little subdued but upper flow mainly westerly so looking at the above,a fine spell for next week then probably unsettled again as we go into the following weekend and week after but this is crystal ball territory later's.

Just a quick one before i dash off to work the gefs mean(NH) is looking good at day ten with the tpv way out over Greenland and N Canada,even out to day sixteen is still looking good London gefs ens steady as she goes but i will have a check at the cpc anomaly's when i get in tonight to see if they shift the pattern in favor of what the models(NWP's) are showing later's.

I will just be turning in then as i am on afters this week for the first time since March so hopefully plenty more sightings in the next few days,i will try and get some snaps later,twilight permitting without cloud of course.

Just managed to get some shots before cloud took over.

Yes i am seeing them here too,going out to get some pics if the cloud bugger's off.

Evening all,i hope that you all are safe and well as others have said there looks to be a fine spell on the cards after this week coming judging by the means from ecm and gfs at day ten and if we can get that trough out in the Atlantic to behave kindly in a way that it stays out there then we may get some warmer weather from the south/southwest,dig it further south then we would have another plume setup ecm and gefs ens are nae bad either and i hope it's the only way up with those temps but.... i am still not convinced by the fine weather that the NWP's are showing because the latest cpc 500 mb outlook anomaly's show +ve heights to our N/NW with upper flow W/NW,shift these heights a bit further E/SE then we would be in a better position for finer warmer weather the winner though goes to the jma this evening,what a chart i am on the fence for now until nearer the time.

The ECM mean at day ten v's the GEFS mean and ecm pressure bam...i will take that

Yes Zak a good day ten indeed and to add to that including the ECM,the gfs op,control and mean at day ten are also showing some settled conditions,are we going to see a trend here,i hope so a quick glance at the pressure chart and the ens look quiet consistent up to the 13th(black circle) but huge scatter afterwards,it is from the 13th that i will be keeping my tabs on to see if we can gain on some more height's the JMA last night was a good run out to 264 but this is pushing the tin a bit tonight's JMA at 192 ain't bad either i have not posted for a couple of days because there wasn't that much to post about really and it has just been mundane weather all week and i would be one of the first to jump on here if there is even the sniff of decent weather showing in the models but lets not get too carried away ATM pubs open tomorrow....yay! but lets be sensible peeps have a good evening and weekend all and stay safe.

Love that first pic Rob with the dark cumulonimbus in the foreground and sets a nice contrast,well done.

Nice capture mate the clouds are moving in all directions here.

Heavy shower to my east but i noticed there is a pileus cloud biulding behind it.

Doomsday...you are starting to sound like the Daily Express just kidding mate,yes it's looking unsettled next week but there is growing sign's that things look to improve into week two of next month and don't get hung up on the NWP's as they are as fickle as they always are past 120> tonight's cpc 500mb height anomaly's show an improvement from day eight onward's with the Azore's/Atlantic hp cell encroaching from the SW. so hang on in there mate and lets see how this pans out as we enter July Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Aaaannnnd.......the mighty NAVGEM also that would be great going forward