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Chris W

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  1. Chris W
    I just saw this a couple of hours ago, amazing! Leaves me feeling pretty weird and amused having set foot on there not so long ago, weird. Here's a photo someone has posted on Facebook: http://www.facebook....153267631364988 I wonder if Ruapehu will join in and increase its own activity...
  2. Chris W
    Looks like Chester was caned today with me down south, gutted to miss it but I hope the others around here got a good show. Seems I did well to miss a full on storm, but those two strikes (around Shefford, Beds near the A507) were beautiful.
  3. Chris W
    I haven't had the chance to see what went on this weekend, but am delighted to report that I saw two CG strikes whilst driving from Letchworth toward the M1 at around 5pm. It is the first time I have seen CG lightning this year. Still no fully fledged storm, but tonight I am contented man. There were some epic clouds today, one of which decided to give Hyde Park a drenching before the dun returned but no storm in London this morning or early aft.
  4. Chris W
    Estofex have a level 1 warning for marginally severe hail and tornadoes for almost all of England and Wales, plus Ireland, with 50% probability of lighting.
  5. Chris W
    <p>How are the moisture levels, shear etc. looking for tomorrow? Looks to me like the occlusion started some decent storms in Ireland today. Sunday looks just as good from a CAPE and LI point of view. That said, I for once do not want a lunchtime or afternoon storm in Stevenage or Letchworth tomorrow as I am attending my cousin's wedding. I am also planning to watch the Olympics in Hyde Park on Sunday bur could always run for cover so that is ok!
  6. Chris W
    It probably will go off in Cheshire tomorrow as I have taken my storm shield with me to the south east for the weekend. Ho hum.
  7. Chris W
    I hiked over the Tongariro Crossing last year - through three of the craters next to Mt Tongariro and over the adjoining Red Ridge - so this is pretty interesting personally! Ngauruhoe was the most recently active of the volcanoes in the park, Ruapehu aside of course, but I didn't expect Mt Tongariro to do anything at all any time soon.
  8. Chris W
    Looks like our only chance is tomorrow as the risk seems to have diminished for other days, but there's a good focus of energy and potentially rising air around then so who knows? It looks like the colder air from the north west begins to move in during tomorrow over here, and if the humidity of this week is sustained (it has been very hot and very close) I'm encouraged by that.
  9. Chris W
    Lincolnshire?
  10. Chris W
    Hi Weather09. I'll pass on the above discussion but thanks for your reply - whilst I have studied geography extensively including meteorology (and long been passionate about both) I haven't the time to study the charts as perhaps yourself or others have, and will certainly yield to greater experience. The UK climate and weather is so variable and unpredictable at times that all number of things come into play. I may be wrong about this week being of a similar or greater magnitude than the 28th of June, and the conditions were indeed very favourable there (save for around here) - the comment was perhaps led by the extreme quantities of available energy forecast on the 00z run and I would still consider it valid. I do not take CAPE and LI alone as indicative of storm potential, but they are a good baseline indicator and there is could well be a good setup regarding both if the models hold - even with the 06z downgrade. I do not know what the other parameters are looking like at the moment, but perhaps they could turn out well for storms nearer the time? I see on the 12z that we have been upgraded slightly around here, and that Saturday now looks more interesting too.
  11. Chris W
    Talk about a crazy chart, that 00z run for Friday afternoon and evening is mental! Saturday isn't bad either, but a tad overshadowed...
  12. Chris W
    That could be epic next week, bigger even than a couple of weeks back in the midlands and north east. Would love more of that energy/more negative LI and other condusive factors to push north west.
  13. Chris W
    Met Office have a yellow warning covering wales, most of the south and part of the west midlands for heavy rain and possible thunder. Seems to have come out of nowhere - first I heard of any potential today was the BBC forecast last night. Edit - the warning area just moved east, now verging into Lincolnshire of course!
  14. Chris W
    Something heavy has been developing over Manchester north of the convergence line that has sat over Cheshire southeastwards to Suffolk all day. Don't know if it's going to become anything electrical, but it's heavy and growing.
  15. Chris W
    Seems like a very near miss to me, really thought I could get something particularly when I got home after work but it seems not. Still, the skies around here are amazing (see attached) and I can see things are still alive and kicking elsewhere .
  16. Chris W
    Well, it became very sticky at work this afternoon in good time for the drive home - fan was on max! Temp 20, DP 16 and humidity 80% (was 86 earlier). There's some interesting stuff coming over the Irish Sea from Dublin (a very active storm location this summer!), where I notice that the GFS runs have been modelling a 'bridge' of energy from Ireland to Wales for this midweek. I should visit Ireland soon. We were in a very sweet spot with energy being taken away fromthis region on later GFS runs, but with things coming from the west/south west and Ireland packing bags of energy with a little less over North Wales who knows if we could finally get something decent? A rhetorical question, as the moderate climate around here is very well-known. Edit - I wrote that not having seen the 12z run, which has upgraded us a little in Cheshire/North Wales. Hurrah for that.
  17. Chris W
    Looks like maybe there's a chance here tomorrow from the 12z GFS, we'll see - ever the optimist! I also see there's been something mildly stormy crossing the Lleyn Peninsula into Gwynedd tonight.
  18. Chris W
    Looks like some kind of fierce low forming over/off the south west on Thurs/Fri that leads to this forecast of serious rain (and by the looks of it strong winds) on Friday on the GFS wind chart. I hope it doesn't come to that. There are some very weird wind patterns forecast, and it looks as changeable generally as any time this summer. Let's hope that's for the better, and drier, for those areas already badly flooded.
  19. Chris W
    Don't see why, there's good CAPE and the LI looks good too. Thursday was less promising on that score, so I'm not surprised it died out in the end - just hoped it could keep going. The lightning detector is showing fresher strikes moving this way too. On top of that I'm doing all of the things that usually encourage heavy rain - shorts, washed the car and have washing on the line as I type! Sky TV has just gone on the blink too. Pasting the Aussies at cricket and a storm too? Would be great.
  20. Chris W
    Sunshine all day here, warm and seen convection going on all day in bits and bobs. Washed the car from around 3-4pm and watched a couple of very sizeable CBs going up, then in the last half hour it has clouded over quite quickly. Looks like that line coming has steered this way, so let's hope this is better than Thursday night. Those clouds are looking increasingly dark and wet.
  21. Chris W
    Crazy, gutted - at the last minute it died a death. Well, never mind. Hope we get something interesting but more so that everyone is safe tomorrow.
  22. Chris W
    I don't believe it.
  23. Chris W
    Can it beat the...um...Tarvin storm shield? My housemate didn't believe me when I just told him a storm was coming.
  24. Chris W
    .............
  25. Chris W
    Looking like about half an hour for a hit, sat24 looks great. Crewe - maybe a smaller cell to the south of the big one? Shall we call this El Millennio given the frequency of them coming?
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