Chris W

The frames leading up to the one I just posted seemed to indicate that the Canadian vortex could help to pull heights up to Greenland quite strongly. As for the vortex strength, isn't it still possible that it will be further weakend by the SSW?

Forecast to be very deep not too far west of us, and it will be a very windy next few days for sure:

If I recall rightly we are due for some SSW-related effects from the 28th onwards? If so, and given the 18z and its superb Atlantic/Greenland height development, I think the mild spell will be pretty short. This chart at T+177 is great: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130125/18/177/h500slp.png

Three cheers for battleground setups! Hip hip...

A marginal event and we get 3 hours of snow around Chester - result. I think that's the lot now, just a question of will it last long into the morning and how bad will the flooding be over the weekend...

Still going, no rain in sight.

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We're not done yet, snowing more heavily again!

Amazing 2 inches of wet snow on the ground outside, very slippery and the snow is lightly falling - perhaps it will turn to rain soon. The motorway stills are incredible, I hope anyone stuck on the M6 is freed soon.

Stil going here, going to go for a walk in a bit.

Snowilng heavily for the last hour and a half in Saughall, still coming. Beautiful breakdown!

The jet modelled for the weekend onwards looks incredibly strong. Hold on to your hats people!

The Met Office fax chart has that low at about 940mb close to Scotland by Sunday: http://www.metoffice...oductId/4639085 As for Monday through to Wednesday it looks like there are some severe winds possible, for example: http://cdn.nwstatic..../129/ukwind.png

If the UKMO model it, it will come! You will get it tomorrow, I am sure of it.

I hope you do, as will we. I will be at work in Birchwood and getting home could be interesting. Then there is Monday's event to follow!Enjoy it in the Port.

A light dusting of snow in Chester tonight, looking forward to tomorrow. Enjoy it everyone!

Quite possibly because a ) we're all preoccupied with tomorrow and b ) with the current and likely forthcoming synoptics of negative mean zonal winds, a split vortex and cold air feeds everywhere the breakthrough of the Atlantic as modelled by the GFS in FI is pretty much unbelievable. The GFS is seemingly on its own vs the UKMO, ECM and the rest and still struggling to deal with the SSW effects and subsequent cold.

We will get snow, simples.

In case it hasn't been posted yet this is the Met Office outlook for North West England through to Monday: Headline: Cold with an increasing risk of snow. This Evening and Tonight: Although it will be dry for much of the time, outbreaks of snow will affect some areas this evening and overnight. Any accumulations should be relatively minor. It will be a cold night with brisk southeasterly winds. Minimum Temperature -5 °C. Friday: Outbreaks of snow will become more widespread and persistent during the day, with disruptive snow possible for Cheshire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester. Staying windy and feeling very cold. Maximum Temperature 0 °C. Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Further rain, sleet and snow expected, although with some drier, brighter periods, especially on Sunday. Remaining cold with ice and frost affecting many areas, and with freezing fog possible.

We have a firm low pressure system carrying plenty of moisture colliding with cold easterly air, I very much doubt tomorrow will be a non-event.

Looks like precipitation will extend ahead of the front, added to this there is a cold southeasterly feed from the continent and the chance of showers in eastern areas from what I have been reading over the past couple of days. There are also troughs indicating instability over eastern areas on the Met Office surface pressure charts.

Just a nod from Cheshire here, stay safe in the Beacons and valleys tomorrow folks.

The Met Office have been pretty strong on a good snow event tomorrow for the past couple of days, and they are usually right too, so I am very pleased with that and to remain in the amber warning area both at home and work. Perhaps the 12z will offer a slight upgrade, though I do not wish to be greedy! Then there is Monday...

UK in the battle between...cold air and colder air... http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png Edit - as a geographical aside, look at Florida in FI: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130115/18/183/usamaxtemp.png

What a roaring jet with clear space between us and it to the south: http://cdn.nwstatic....8/78/hgt300.png It's almost like the UK has been shifted north a few hundred miles!