Chris W

http://i.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/9754431/Storm-brings-hail-tornadoes-to-Canty A little off topic but we had a supercell here yesterday, thought you might like to see it.

I just wanted to come online and offer my deepest sympathies and 'support' (for what online support is worth) given how this winter continues to unfold. It is strange being abroad at a time like this and seeing what is happening to my homeland. My 3-week visit to the UK from mid-December to early January coincided with the start of this exceptionally stormy pattern and I thought that period was extreme; whilst seeing that it has indeed done so I cannot believe that it has continued like this and the images from south west England (especially Porthleven, Dawlish and the Somerset Levels in the last few days) as well as Wales (in the last month or two) are incredible. I do hope that the period following next week or so can finally bring a definitive pattern change to something less windy and above all something dry, for all of your sakes!

Just a quick word on the next SW Pacific TC - tropical disturbance 08F is in residence in the monsoon trough near the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu and is increasingly looking likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days or so according to Nadi: http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf This one is being projected by the BOM (and I hear GFS) - it currently lies in Brisbane's area of responsibility but will move to Nadi's soon - to track southwards over New Caledonia before impacting the North Island/upper South Island of New Zealand by which time it would be a sub-tropical low.

Brilliant, and welcome light-heartedness to bring to the thread amidst the robust model debate. I think the Gavin Model should answer with their own perturbations. One day that setup will happen.

Thanks Coast, trough has weakened a bit at York but some awesome skies! Could I meet that South Wales storm?

On the train from Durham to Kings Cross, seemingly poised to stay with the trough as it moves east .

Rinse and repeat...again?

Stayed around a mean sustained wind of around 30 and gust of 50 (occasionally higher) all day. Windy for sure, but thankfully not expecting to hear of much damage in Sunderland beyond the odd wheelie bin falling over.

Pressure in Sunderland is 965mb, wind still sustained at 30mph gusting close to 50mph. Not as strong as overnight but plenty of time left in this. Looks like the LP centre is about 944mb just off the Hebrides.

What a wild night in Sunderland and it is blowing hard outside right now! This is the real deal for sure and we're just 3 hours into the amber warning period. I haven't had the chance to check radar or gusts as yet. Edit - currently 30mph gusting 50, overnight maxima were 45mph sustained and 60mph gusts according to Weather Underground.

Gosh, the north east is right in the firing line this time. Surprised to see the impacts of the winds here projected to be worse than for western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Pretty blowy here in the north east and gusting around 45-50mph but strengthening. Checking in again at the BBC forecast it loks like we are in for a windy evening (gusts up to 70mph) before this plays itself out.

Off the UK topic but I thought you guys might like to see this, photographed over Western Australia on my flight from New Zealand to Singapore last week:

We've had some of the rain and hail in Sunderland, but not the thunder and I don't think there was any snow - too near the sea . Durham is a great place for snow.

After a crisp, clear morning in the cold sector the squally showers and more strong gusts are now reaching Sunderland. I notice there have been a couple of sferics near Durham and also in the south west this afternoon. It looks like an almighty blizzard up in northwest Scotland - hope you guys are all safe up there and ride this out with as much as possible intact. I took a screen grab from Sat24 from earlier on - as Liam Dutton said on Twitter "beautiful but dangerous":

I see now that there is also a UK-wide yellow weather warning for Friday. Also, East Coast trains are accepting tickets for any train.

I see the 06:00 Met Office observations for Northern Ireland reported pressures of 956mb, and those for SW Scotland were reporting 960mb. These are on-land figures and the Hebrides should see lower than that. I also noticed a couple of snow streamers across northern England on the radar. They may turn to sleet before reaching the north east coast but we will see.

Waking up to a strongly gusting wind here in Sunderland. Yesterday was fairly gusty but this does sound stronger & I believe today will be worse here as the storm begins to track north. My sympathies to all affected so far, especially it seems in the south & IOW. Hopefully you can overcome it to have a good - or at least decent - Christmas Day.

It looks like they are staggering the warnings - I can see rain and snow warnings up but it looks like the wind warnings are yet to arrive. I'd be quite confident given the fax charts that they are on the way soon.

The force of the winds could yes, the only reason we cannot claim to be affected by hurricanes is because they are simply areas of grouped tropical thunderstorms and not frontal systems but our winds can be described as hurricane-force if they match the same speeds. Apologies if you already know this well! I have advised my sister to travel down to Sunderland from Edinburgh today rather than tomorrow, unfortunately I have an aunt travelling up from Leeds on Tuesday but that will be in the evening when the winds may have lessened somewhat. Otherwise that journey may have to be Christmas morning. I would say to others to advise your friends and family to do the same, as you probably already are doing.

Rightly so, looks like (due) caution but I would expect amber warnings tomorrow as the likelihood increases.

This might help if you haven't seen it before: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/guide/beaufortscale.html

I'm not quite sure what to say after running the 850 temps, 500 heights and wind speed/direction output on the latest GFS run. Not only for Monday/Tuesday but also for the 27th. Monday's/Tuesday's storm barrels across the Atlantic then stays put over the northern Irish Sea for a long time and still strongly influencing us on Christmas Day. The storm on the 27th looks just as furious. Below is the response from the Met Office to my tweet just this morning: https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/414355927220105216

A very active cold front coming through Sunderland today, clouds are speeding along and bringing some very heavy rain/hail showers and strong gusts - one of the downpours brought some of the largest hail I have seen. It brings into light how bad Monday and Tuesday could be, but that is for the other thread.

Perhaps later today or early tomorrow the Met Office will begin advising against all but essential travel on Monday & Tuesday. I do not mean to hype but I think the danger is clear and present at this stage. What are the data on western coasts and the Isle of Man regarding a storm surge?