Chris W

Looking like we're still pretty locked into a very blocked pattern from the GFS 06z (a cold run throughout) with a strong jet way south over Africa/Spain, which albeit not great for the mild fan does at least promise to keep the Atlantic at bay and therefore keep us much drier than last year - I'm sure this at least is welcomed by all of us. Could be quite some March if we end up with something close to this in the later part of the month:

With respect, March often carries a chance of cold and people can look for what they are interested in.

A very sunny, bright and fine day around Birchwood, Warrington from dawn to now with a very enjoyable commute through the sunrise earlier. Currently 11 Celsius and negligible wind, pressure 1035 hPa. In both Chester and Warrington we have been enjoying the dry, often fine and sunny weather of the last week or two after the long drenching of 2012 and the snow (whilst the latter was enjoyable for me personally). Today is a continuation of that. Off-topic this has allowed my office chilli plant, restored to the windowsill after the winter, to explode with flowers promising a good supply soon!

You said 'no northerly', the chart showed otherwise. That was my disagreement with your post.

I disagree, not as potent but still a cold north/northwesterly by Sunday 3rd:

On March 12th 2006 this brought a very heavy snowfall to Dundee, where I was resident at the time: More on this here: http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id110.html

GFS has gone a bit loopy in FI, the temperature gradient from Italy to Denmark almost spans the entire scale: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130219/18/384/h850t850eu.png

Looking forward to storm season, there were rumours of thundersnow in Manchester/Cheshire in January but I heard diddly .

Is that strictly true? If so what is the statistical evidence to prove the opposite hypothesis?

Of course our definition of the end of winter means little to the weather itself, or the models, but to continue would be to venture off topic.

GFS 06z at 126 Hours: That easterly lasts for days, becomes a slightly milder south-easterly then a cool easterly again into FI after which a bit of a northerly beast. Suffice to say it is a cold run influenced by a strong block.

18z GFS playing about with shortwaves vs heights going north/west but gets there with the easterly eventually, before an advance of cold from the north later. Don't see mild in the mid-late stages of this run.

From a cold point of view I hope the GFS 18z is way off the mark, it has shunted everything east. From the point of view of those who have been flooded out of house and home this last year/winter, however, the high pressure setup would be great news.

I noticed that too, and in my understanding that increases the chance of high pressure to our west/northwest holding firm and opening the door quite wide for cold/unstable north/easterly weather? This type of development has been touted as possible for a while but it may finally be happening.

The UKMO seems to agree well with the ECM and GFS at 120 hours too (in terms of the 00z), and with how well it handled January's cold spell I'm very interested in seeing how it trends henceforth. With another nor'easter storm being touted for the US the models look like taking warmer air further west and north later in their runs due to this system keeping close to the US/Canada and little else around in the Atlantic taking energy eastward.

I'd give it a couple more weeks at least before we start declaring winter to be over according to the models, especially as those same models were showing chances of Greenland/Scandanavian highs and cold only last week. We are eleven days into our coldest month with high pressure hanging around that could suddenly end up going west (I think I like western blocking rather than northern), and I am sure the model output even over days 1-5 will continue to vary.

I see from the radar that moderately heavy precipitation is heading from Shropshire towards Chester and the social radar in the last few minutes indicates it is turning to snow. Also an upgrade on the weather warnings for us here, promising for something tonight.

GFS going a little shortwave/Atlantic crazy in FI, after earlier showing high pressure around Greenland and cold edging ever westwards. An odd 12z run I must say. I have let my expectations of a mid-late Feb Greenland high build after the last week's output, and see little reason to change them, but that is only my opinion and no more.

I haven't time for a long post but I do like direct northerlies, and also north-westerlies - looks like a brief northerly for Saturday then a north-westerly next week. Not 2009/10, but cold and wintry for sure in my opinion.

Getting pretty breezy around Warrington, expecting gusts of up to 60mph this afternoon. I see the low last night bottomed out around 955mb, not as low as the 928 the other day but right over Scotland rather than Iceland.

Haven't seen a convergence line on a fax chart for quite a while. This for Saturday: http://www.metoffice...oductId/4799126

Better warm air advection west of Greenland, ridging in the Atlantic and chances of a northerly on the GFS 06z at T+147 (even if it is a toppler): http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130126/06/147/h850t850eu.png

Blimey Coast, that shear is literally off the scale. So we have a close to record low coming in against relatively colder air (even after the initial low today), bringing in tropical and moist air - guess we'll have wind, rain, flooding, thunder, cats, dogs and the kitchen sink coming at us in the next few days! I'm scratching my head for the deepest low I've seen in my lifetime (that I remember, being born in '84 and remembering details of isobars from something like the mid-90's) and I'd reckon that would be around the 960mb mark. Hence, 928mb is downright extroardinary and I'm concerned for those in western Ireland and the Western Isles, potentially the south and east coasts too.

That's BBC Sport in Salford, News is still at Television Centre in London as far as I know. Still an inch or two on the ground this morning and a lot of sheet ice making paths a bit dicey. Will see how long it hangs around for until the rain comes and properly finishes it off. A very good cold spell and the best snow in Chester/Wirral by my reckoning since the blizzard of early Feb 2010 (deep snow, sheet ice everywhere and a 3.5 hours journey home from Bromborough!). Sounds like a nightmare for those stuck on the M6 last night, glad they were able to find some shelter at Chorley services though.

I do not! I agree it wouldn't be long-lasting based on the 18z run and northerly potential, but compared to the zonal runs of late it is a considerable step in the direction of potential cold and what I've been expecting from January's chat on these forums. My own experience is that the best cold is usually in February.