Chris W

Cold rain and no test match down here? You sure?

Take a look at what just went through Edinburgh and how quickly it developed. A sign of things further south? Keeping track from afar, this looks an incredible setup for night-time storms, wish I was there!

Visiting friends in Bloomington-Normal, but spent yesterday in the windy city - was great. Storm risk is marginal now for sever, but a lot going on around here (especially the MCS to the south-east) and hopeful for some action over us later.

Flying into Chicago soon and this is tomorrow's severe storm risk!

I'm on a train south of Peterborough (heading south), cloud gaps are appearing and there is strong-looking convection to the west with blue skies ahead of it. May be a chance of something yet.

Went for a 40-minute walk just now, the two images below show development to the north-west - left is earlier and right is later. Convection edging closer to the coast.

Moving very slowly east, looks like we're possibly in for some later afternoon/evening action up here!

Visiting family in Sunderland at the moment, just watched a big CB going up to the west. Looking active over western County Durham now.

Autumn has been very warm and dry in Christchurch and many parts of NZ. Most days have been over 20C since March and the start of May actually became warmer than the end to April with temperature maxima of 23-24-23-23-15-22-21 for the first 8 days of May and the mean temperature for the airport running roughly 5C above average! There has been no rain in Christchurch for 3 weeks and only 8mm in the last month. Looks set to continue, as what was looking like a strong southerly this week is being flattened out into continued strong northwesterlies which will make Canterbury warm and dry. The west coast will get a soaking however.

Something large looming for WA/SA/Vic at least later this week on the latest BOM run, aided by the NZ block.

That's astonishing Styx, really would have expected a pattern change as we cross months but no sign as yet. Let's hope the Antarctic really lets rip sometime soon!

Same here in NZ, a really warm Trans-Tasman autumn with very high SSTs, strong highs keeping the westerlies south or only far enough north so to draw a warm airmass over here. Same again next week though a wet-looking low for Victoria midweek.

Thankfully not such a severe impact on Samoa as feared as one stage, as Amos remained Category 3 and stayed further north than expected (it had been forecast to directly cross Apia). Something of a relief, definitely.

BOM posted a La Nina watch with 50% probability by the end of the year, certainly a very rapid decline of El Nino: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ After El Nino brought NZ a very dry spring and unstable early summer (including a December record of 36C in a very up/down month), a January soaking and a very warm Feb the first two months of autumn here have been dominated by gentle westerlies then warm high pressure (late March saw four consecutive days at 30C in Christchurch) - the south is not getting a look in as anticyclones have ruled April.

Fiji Met forecast track showing destructive to very destructive winds crossing Samoa's western Savai'i island (including some popular tourist areas) at Category 4 before grazing the south coast of the eastern Upolu island away from the capital Apia, with widespread gales across both islands. http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html Savai'i is thankfully less populated than Upolu. They remember Cyclone Evan well there and are better prepared this time, but this is looking more significant today.

A 'state of natural disaster' has been declared for the whole of Fiji:

Winston is impacting Fiji as I type (landfall on Viti Levu approx 1 hour ago), with the government there warning of a "grievous" experience. It is alarming. These are the figures I have read: Central pressure 917mb Wind gusts up to 225mph/360kmh! Sustained winds 121mph I cannot comprehend how frightening that must be. Fiji is well-prepared but will still need significant aid after this.

Winston is a category 5 and looks set to hit Fiji dead-on with the same intensity, winds sustained at 125mph:

On she heads to give Hawke's Bay and North/Mid Canterbury a soaking this week before shuffling out east.

Yeah, I hadn't thought about strikes but that makes sense. I just recall in the NSW fires of 2013 the authorities were blaming a number on deliberate acts. Looks like some more heat moving across the eastern states this week.

Currently a Category 3 cyclone just having passed Palmerston atoll in the Cook Islands, now heading towards Niue and Tonga (Fiji Met threat track posted below) before looking likely to bullseye NZ (according to the BOM Access model). Haven't looked too often at Victor, but he seems lively!

Checking in more detail, as your posted track above shows Fiji Met also have Victor moving southwest before a turn to the southeast and then becoming category 3 but passing Niue at a fairly safe distance. Not sure of any possible turn towards Rarotonga. http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

This was TD08F before becoming Victor tonight. Looks set for a southward track and to only affect the Cook Islands - hopefully not badly.

Incredible, a January hurricane over cold waters! This system will be great to watch.

Real sympathy for you guys over there Styx, it seems like a few states are having bad fires this year and I can't quite imagine the scale. Hope it abates and the authorities keep doing a great job of evacuating and mitigating the fires, whilst catching those responsible for the deliberate starting of some of them.