Chris W

She was a hot one alright!

Yes it was Ed (was typing from the previous page, missed this one entirely!), in fact the Monday in question set a new December temperature record for Christchurch of 36.1C. It was a hot day for sure! Quite normal to get foehn winds in Canterbury, and to occasionally drag a hot airmass over from Aussie, but the westerlies have been more frequent with El Nino so this setup was a matter of time. We may get it again before summer is out.

It was fun watching little Ula meander across the Pacific, until she strengthened and affected some of the islands that is. Her extratropical remnants are feeding some moisture down to the North Island of NZ at the moment. Next one to watch is the larger TD08F which is expected to form in the next couple of days and affect the Cook Islands - image copied from Metservice NZ: http://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

Video of the tornado, wish I had seen it myself! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJTPcu09J9o

Mid-thirties IMO, we had 31C in October with a cooler airmass than that. Record in Rangiora is 41C!

That airmass is on its way to us for Sunday/Monday, Christchurch could reach mid-thirties. Must be scorching in Vic/NSW/Tas right now!

Looking forward to the maximum temperature on Monday with this hot Aussie airmass and the foehn wind off the Alps, though sleeping may be hard Sunday night!

A supercell with cricket ball-sized hail and a tornado hit Sydney yesterday - Bondi Junction and Cornell (sp.?) were hit according to radio reports.

Supercells galore in Canterbury yesterday, large hail and a tornado: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/75057881/hail-gone-but-thunder-may-return-in-christchurch.html The hail downdraught took the temperature from 20C to 6C!

Thought I'd drop in and share, at the risk of potentially riling you during the winter storm drought but you might still like to see this - 2 supercells in Canterbury yesterday after an entire spring of no storms. At least one tornado and marble-sized hail that has ravaged my veggie garden! Photos at the link below: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/75057881/hail-gone-but-thunder-may-return-in-christchurch.html Here's a panoramic I took of the second one approaching:

El Nino conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a 60% chance of continuing, after Cyclone Pam provided a strong westerly burst of wind to reverse the trades. Here's Metservice New Zealand's blog: http://about.metservice.com/homepagerss/ April outlook for NZ from Metservice: http://www.metservice.com/rural/seasonal-outlook

Due east of Christchurch, pretty much. I know very little else about them! She was 949hPa around the Chathams after merging with a Tasman Sea cold front and becoming very large. Still 976hPa and giving us showers here on her very northwestern fringes - 3 days of southwesterlies and drizzle/showers. I'll sign off on this one with a request to consider giving to Vanuatu's emergency response, and a Cyclone Pam wrap-up by NZ Metservice: http://blog.metservice.com/2015/03/tc-pam-summary/

Not forgetting the Chathams Jo: http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/first-dramatic-photos-cyclone-pam-smashes-into-chatham-islands-6257255

There were high rainfall totals in the East Cape, but mostly nobody lives there. There were 100 evacuees around Gisborne and as mentioned the coast took a bit of stick, but otherwise not too bad. Waves were up around 7-9m in places. 3m swells today along the Pegasus Bay coast including Christchurch - SW winds are fresh around the 40kmh mark here (max we got was 50kmh on the very fringes of the storm). Yesterday was horizontal drizzle all day, but only 7mm of it! Really struggled to rain here this year. Photos included: http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/67425032/Cyclone-Pam-remnants-touch-Christchurch Chathams next, mean speeds 80kmh and gusting 110 - thinking of those guys now.

Pam was transitioning yesterday, so the media are not correct. However, as it has only done so very recently some confusion is understandable. 4-7m swells and 144kmh gusts reported from near Whangapararoa last night. Edit - Pam has now been formally reclassified as an intense extratropical cyclone by Metservice: http://blog.metservice.com/2015/03/cyclone-pam-latest-update-7am-monday-16th-march/

Here's a link to read regarding donations to post-cyclone recovery in Vanuatu, there have been major agricultural impacts: https://www.facebook.com/events/804076756337342/ Nine News Australia also reported that half of Tuvalu's population was displaced by Pam. Here she is approaching NZ, and already beginning to impact Northland. Gisborne, East Cape and Bay of Plenty are in for a particularly rough time from what will remain a very intense extratropical cyclone (currently beginning transition, and was still sporting an clear eye at 27 degrees south this morning):

Reports from Vanuatu are sparse, with lines of communication down & the cyclone only just beginning to move away.

Yes, pretty much a direct hit on Port Vila itself too - within around 15-30km of the eye. Twitter reports are grim reading, 44 deaths feared at present and widespread damage and flooding. Hoping & praying for the best possible outcome.

Vanuatu is one of the poorest nations in the world, this will hit them very hard. UNICEF and Red Cross (amongst othes of course) are already doing what they can and will need donations to support recovery work for sure. It's rare to get something this strong in the SW Pacific by all accounts, but the conditions were there with high pressure forcing convection to group into a big system and head south. We already have an outlook for severe gales and heavy rain over the North Island and eastern South Island for Monday through Wednesday, but before Pam gets anywhere near here it's our island friends who are feeling her fullest force.

At 7am NZST (18:00 GMT Thursday) Pam had winds of 257kmh with top gusts of 314kmh (Weather Undergroound). That is serious. The eyewall is now impacting/very close to Vanuatu's north-eastern islands and the eye is very well protected.

Pam is being reported by NZ media as having reached category 5 status (no official confirmation as yet), pressure 920hPa and a very clear eye now. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/67314645/tropical-cyclone-pam-becomes-category-5-supercyclone http://phys.org/news/2015-03-tropical-cyclone-pam-nasa-eye-opening.html

Pam at 941hPa this morning. JTWC expect a minimum pressure of 907hPa. http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCyclones/Warning/tabid/172/Default.aspx http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCyclones/TCTrackMap/tabid/173/Default.aspx Westward revision of the track by UKMO also leads to this on Tuesday:

SSTs have been high around NZ of late, wondering how far south this will retain TC status for. Currently Pam is in an environment of 29C SSTs and as Somerset Squall as mentioned forecast to peak at Cat 5/140kt sustained (170kt gust) just east of Vanuatu inside 48 hours with a 165nm radius of 34kt winds. Current threat map from Fiji Met, showing the threat to the Vanuatu islands - particularly Vila and Tanna on the current forecast track:

After a quiet SW Pacific cyclone season we are watching this one closely. Looks certain to impact Vanuatu, possibly as a Category 4, maybe New Caledonia and then recurve just east of NZ when extratropical - although the North Island may get a good deal of (much-needed) rain pushed in from the east. We will see. Hang in there Vanuatu.

New Zealand could be on the verge of a significant drought: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11387085 In fact we pretty much are about to have some kind of drought. Nationwide there is a real shortage of rain, soils are very dry and the scrub fire risk is already extreme. https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/daily-climate-maps http://fireweather.nrfa.org.nz/ Our garden is tinder-dry in places. Christchurch airport has been reporting month after month of below to well-below average rainfall, and so far this month, 18 days in, we have had 4mm of rain! Added to this have been a few days now of northwesterlies, which are hot and dry - today we reached 32C after a high of 25 yesterday and a solid overnight temperature of 22C. Tonight it will likely stay around 15-20C, and tomorrow is 27C with more northwesterlies. In rural areas the temperatures are higher and the hot winds stronger, and this is where the farms are. See the Past Climate section of the below page for the last 30 days of rainfall, temperature and wind direction for Christchurch: http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/christchurch/christchurch