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Chris W

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  1. Chris W
    Follow-up comment from NWS OPC re: sting jet:
  2. Chris W
    American NWS tweeting about the storm: https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/555512499760795648 Confirmed hurricane-force wind west of Ireland: https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/555513433526128641 Hope you all stay safe there, I'm sure that not all of you will get very strong winds but it does look nasty for some.
  3. Chris W
    That's a beautiful video. Nothing at all here in Sunderland, but a lovely clear morning (approx 1C at present) and I'm about to go out for a run to enjoy it.
  4. Chris W
    Even if a cold high gets established over the UK after the weekend? Could it really be pushed aside so easily? I'm genuinely asking, but it doesn't seem to me like it would just be like that. The PV revival in the models has come about rather quickly.
  5. Chris W
    Comparing this in my memory (and limited analysis) to last year, the setup is very active north of the UK but with the vortex much further east and with very little persistent cold air for the Atlantic to draw strength from over eastern Canada. The heights over North America in the GFS and ECM are quite something. The upcoming storm is concerning, as last year's were and with 950mb being something that would but for last year have seemed very unusual so close to the UK, but it does not look to be a case of very strong low pressure systems lining up in succession from south of Newfoundland like last year. I will have to do more model watching to see what heights build to the west of Greenland and get up to speed in general, but there seems to be the potential for that to occur and for the mid-Atlantic high to edge northwestwards. Definitely colder in general than last December, and going off the GFS 00z op that is an impressive fetch on this week's northerly:
  6. Chris W
    Tuning back into UK weather ahead of another Christmas visit in 10 days' time. Let's hope this doesn't herald the start of a repeat of last winter, but it's a very interesting system. Here's the 48-hour NWS Ocean Prediction Center analysis: https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/541503844153581568
  7. Chris W
    A storm popped up out of almost nowhere today and rumbled south past Christchurch. I saw several spectacular CG and IC bolts, and heard one very loud peal of thunder. Amazingly, even though the storm came so close I stood watching it in the dry and in the sun for most of the time.
  8. Chris W
    Yep, started with anticyclonic gloom this morning but sunny spells now at 1036hpa. Looking at morning cloud and afternoon sun for at least a week. Westerlies not really getting a look in.
  9. Chris W
    It didn't really snow in Christchurch, a few flakes but nothing more than that. It may struggle to this winter, as the strongest anticyclone I have ever seen moves in for the next week at the very least:
  10. Chris W
    From my own experience here in Feb this year, things can develop very quickly - we went from not much on a cloudy-ish day (that wasn't too hot either) to a supercell forming at 3-4pm offshore and cleaning the city's clock two hours later before producing a damaging tornado north of here! For reference we ended up with this (scroll through the photos): http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/9754431/Storm-brings-hail-tornadoes-to-Canty Plenty of time guys, and it looks from what I can see on sat24 and the lightning detector that things are picking up in the south.
  11. Chris W
    Very organised line of storms in France - bowing line?
  12. Chris W
    Been following this most of today and admiring all of your commitment in staying awake! 6pm here now, and I'm in for an evening of more and more storm (report) watching. Your photos and videos have been epic, even before the main event - bravo!
  13. Chris W
    David Cameron has criticised several strikes occurring over Southern England tonight, and widespread unprecedented strikes expected nationwide on Saturday, as being disruptive. He blamed these strikes on a sudden uncontrolled surge of immigration from France. He was, however, full of praise for North West England saying that they hadn't had a good strike since the 80s. Jean-Claude Juncker was not available for comment, and was last seen headed speedily for Rouen with his SLR.
  14. Chris W
    Settling in for some very remote storm watching with you guys, can't miss hearing about a real overnight import...and never mind tomorrow!
  15. Chris W
    I decided to check out the latest BBC forecast video to see what you're in store for, and I haven't seen or heard a forecast quite like it before - the words intense and massive being used to describe Saturday's storms. Enjoy yourselves!
  16. Chris W
    I'm jealous of you guys, though I did get an awesome supercell in February and may get snow on Monday . Post up some videos, would be great to see what happens today and tomorrow.
  17. Chris W
    Here she is over NZ right now: Metservice blog on wind speeds and rainfall for the North Island over the last 24 hours: http://about.metservice.com/homepagerss/blog-mid-storm-update/ Light rain in Christchurch at present, but all set to change mid-afternoon.
  18. Chris W
    This one looks set to dump more rain on us than Lusi did, including in the drought-stricken Waikato where they will love it. Canterbury does not need it but it looks like we're in for a soaking Thursday into Friday. Abel Tasman, Nelson and Blenheim/Kaikoura looks set for some serious rain totals. http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-warnings http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-watch http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day
  19. Chris W
    I loved that chart. The radar now shows Lusi crossing Marlborough after pasting Nelson, and heading to her demise over the Pacific. http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-radar/all-new-zealand Certainly a very cyclonic day here, pretty wet and windy at times with rain persisting between light and heavy all day, and some tasty gusts - in my estimation up to around 60kph here but much higher further north. Possibly around 30-50mm of rain here. No significant flooding to my knowledge, but some power outages. 27C for Christchurch tomorrow due to the warm air dragged down and the coming nor'wester.
  20. Chris W
    Wet and windy this morning, then calmer on the rain front and a fresh to strong wind all day. One last burst of heavy rain coming down towards Christchurch this afternoon/evening: Nelson looks set to be hammered by rain later.
  21. Chris W
    Morning Lusi. Waking up to heavy rain and a gusty easterly - the heaviest rain for us seems to be due up to and around lunchtime (late evening GMT). Little idea of North Island totals, but I hear Te Aroha in Waikato got 100mm+.
  22. Chris W
    Lusi has arrived at Kaitaia and Kerikeri in the far reaches of Northland tonight. She looks to have downgraded slightly for Christchurch by taking a more westward track, but I will still not underestimate how wet it could be here on Sunday. Metservice are forecasting the worst rain for Northland, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Hawke's Bay and Nelson/Marlborough as well as easterly gales for the North Island. It will get windy down here too, with strong easterlies/north-easterlies but perhaps not as strong as the North island. The west coast will get some significant rain as well as North Otago. http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-outlook http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-warnings Following Lusi's departure a quite vigorous cold front will move up the South Island and to the North Island, bringing the usual hot Nor'wester for Canterbury, heavy rain for Westland and gales for Wellington. A satellite loop showing the rapid extratropical transition that Lusi underwent today is below: http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/satellite/tasman-sea-nz-infrared
  23. Chris W
    Metservice 3-day rainfall forecast with wind direction: http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day Looking a bit worse for the South Island at present due to the eastward recurve. I'd be pretty surprised if there is not a large amount of rain from this on Sunday, though at least it will be warmer than last week's southerly. The North Island, however, really does need rain.
  24. Chris W
    That's about right, yes. Last Monday into Tuesday produced severe flooding across large parts of the city from a deep and static Pacific low: https://twitter.com/MetService/status/440940448417579008/photo/1 We has a supercell the other week and have ex-TC Lusi on the way at the weekend too. Before all this we had 12mm of rain in the first 40 days of the year so our rain is coming in very big bursts at present!
  25. Chris W
    After last week's deep low that brought severe flooding to Christchurch (from 150mm of rain over 24 hours) we need this like a hole in the head. It is a very interesting system though, and only the second ex-tropical cyclone I will have seen striking NZ since I moved here. The latest estimate I heard is for 80mm of rain on Sunday for Christchurch, and impacts all over the North Island and upper South Island. I'm not sure how strong the easterly gales will be, but we had a lot of tree damage last week from up to 100kph winds in the city (up to 160kph on the Port Hills) and trees will have been weakened whilst still in full leaf. 5-day Metvuw rain, MSLP and wind speed forecasts for NZ here with the t+84 chart below: http://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nz&noofdays=5 N.B. This should surely be tagged SW Pacific, not South Indian Ocean - unless we have been moved!
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