Chris W

That shortwave at T+84 bouncing off Ireland and heading in the reverse direction (to that of usual Icelandic lows) towards Iceland, dragging warm air right where we want it, is fantastic: The GFS really does seem to be going the way of Scandi/Greenland heights and a major undercutting low as pioneered by the UKMO. Time will tell, but I think this is a great run for the weekend if not beyond. Additionally, in case it has not been posted, a link to the BBC's take at lunchtime today on this week: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21015105

4 Degrees Celsius and rain last night and today in Chester and Birchwood as the warnings shift east and everyone else gets snow. Seriously. Well, onto the weekend perhaps? Would love the UKMO from earlier today to verify on Saturday!

My general view across the models and their trends in the past few days is that we generally remain in easterly/battleground territory throughout the next week. That to me is a superb situation for snow potential, maybe a slightly weaker block allowing a little Atlantic is just what we need, as opposed to a massive block with dry cold?

I was wondering about this earlier - the current sequence of stratospheric warmings will end at some point, yes? If so, given that the strat should generally warm towards the end of winter what are the chances of the vortex reforming, or or staying split/weakened? The gist of my question is how sustainable is SSW-induced cold after the warming ends? Thanks for this thread, it is very cutting edge to me and a fantastic read.

A great run from the GFS to put it mildly, or not mildly I should say! Leaving aside the consensus for a cold and potentially snowy weekend and whatever comes early next week, Thursday looks immense for battleground snow over the west. I was confused as to why it was showing such a strong Atlantic when the SSW is in force and has the PV in disarray, but it seems to have come to a more likely solution given the prevailing analysis (strat thread, BBC, latterly Met Office) associated with the SSW, high-latitude blocking and its associated drawing of easterly winds that has been growing in volume for days on end.

The fog out of town around Chester tonight is very thick and visibility is down to 10-20m in places. Otherwise a foggy start this morning, less so than now with ice, then a cold day with a relatively fog-free if overcast afternoon in Birchwood.

I have found the consistency of warm air advection west of the UK being modelled over the past few days by the GFS (I haven't seen too much of other models) for this week pretty encouraging, especially in light of the SSW and effects it clearly seems to be taking on the models. More experienced folk know more of course, but personally I have high confidence in strong northern blocking and severe cold coming. I doubt the 06Z GFS run will verify in FI, but oh my if it does!!! As a short off-topic aside, lot of credit is due to those in the strat thread and others in here with a wealth of experience for their level-headed forecasts and analysis of this event. Edit - just saw this on the Met Office site: @bluebakermcfc Our 30-day UK outlook is indeed indicating wintry conditions for the north for the next few weeks, http://t.co/9O71ti0o ^TK

The GFS model output this morning has been nothing short of breathtaking in FI. The cold spell is coming to Britain...the day after tomorrow! Just a little joke there, but with the warm air advection west of the UK to east of Greenland consistently being modelled for the next few days the scenario of strong high-latitude blocking and a severe north-easterly cold outbreak looks increasingly likely.

He could do it weekly to measure what the strat is up to and how far down its effects are reaching...he'd be well up for it, right?

It has certainly been very interesting and encouraging to see the models develop from the late December Atlantic-fest to show heights building north of us and increasing signs of a favourable response to the SSW. The non-easterly was difficult to take, but this looks like a well-based route to cold weather from my understanding. Credit to those in the strat thread for calling this, whatever comes of it they seem to have been ahead of the game in there! I would like to see the Azores high shift from around these parts though, it is looking a bit difficult to shift and seems to block all comers (east or west) for now, though I'm sure with potential northern blocking and a more south-flowing jet then it could well happen. It will be fascinating to continue watching this.

I have just driven over the M62 through a squall which occurred around 2-2:30pm, making for horrendous driving conditions. That is not all, however, as within this squall I saw an intra-cloud lightning bolt and a possible second flash shortly after it. An unexpected bonus!

High tide earlier at Seaburn beach in Sunderland, even before the wind started to pick up: http://telly.com/D6H1C A dog was rescued having been washed into the sea, thank goodness for the coastguard/

Chester reached -7.2 last night with freezing fog and it is still -6 there: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD9497

Very interesting to see the GFS almost oscillating between a northerly and easterly then back again (almost) in the last few days or so, with attempts from the Atlantic to break though the western block - except that is doesn't seem it will. It looks to me that we're set for mainly cold conditions through the next couple of weeks with battleground potential if the Atlantic attacks, since even if/when it does it really doesn't seem to get beyond Ireland or the west coast of the mainland. The blocking to the west and north looks persistent and at times (especially to the north) very potent. Just general thoughts rather than charts, but it's my two pence worth. Whatever happens after it, next week looks frigid with some possible hope of snow for us westerners if the east coast doesn't hog it again!

After driving rain/sleet and strong winds on the M56 on the way home from work (making for difficult driving conditions), followed by a calmer period, we have just had two intense hail showers here moving in from the Irish Sea. A wild end to the day for sure! As I type another sharp shower arrives, though this one just looks like rain. At work in Birchwood earlier today we had a short snow flurry ahead of the rain around lunchtime.

If we have a battleground developing that potentially looks better for the west in terms of snow - say for example a front comes in from the west against cold eastern/northern air leading to snow then we're first in the firing line. I'd love deep cold leading to snow, but if it is a battleground and that brings the goods for us in the west (starved of snow in 2010-11 despite the very deep cold!) then I will certainly be pleased! It really is fascinating watching the models and how they trend over time.

Not exactly for Saughall as it has rained here most of the time since Thursday/Friday, two of the roads out of the village have been flooded since the weekend and the remainder are turning into streams as I type. With what is due overnight it will be very interesting getting out to work in the morning! However, as the map shows that is nothing like the rest of North West England, Wales or the West Country. My deepest sympathies go to all those badly affected or even killed by this weather, it is truly tragic.

I haven't time to post charts etc. to back up my view, but I think most would say that over the past couple of weeks or so things have been trending towards a cold end of the month into early December and perhaps for this to continue after that. With the GFS and UKMO model outputs (plus some others) I have seen on average they do seem to be favouring blocking and a north/easterly flow with increasingly cold uppers and lower heights. Indeed this week the Met Office surface pressure charts have shown Atlantic high pressure ridging north to our west as per the GFS this week. Added to this the Met Office comments have gone from 'no strong signal but possibly below average' to 'below average with some wintry showers over hills' to even a little further than that so they seem pretty convinced by their modelling about a cold spell. I guess there is always the threat of westerly lows breaking through blocking, but overall it looks a pretty good overall setup for cold developing and as a cold fan I am pleased at that. Thanks to all on here for their analysis and interpretation, reading through all of these (however qualitative) does help to form a balanced view of things. I will continue to read with interest.

I don't wish to anatagonise and was actually agreeing with you John, however I still do not see how geography does not significantly improve one's knowledge base at degree entry level for studying meteorology. I didn't think the 'amateur' reference was at all right or necessary however, and a little misleading. Geography is less commonly mentioned as a prerequisite for degree courses because it is less fundamental to general science-based degrees than the pure sciences. Anyway, I don't want to detract from the thread and I think we are broadly on the same page.

I beg your pardon John? I fail to see what three subjects would better qualify anyone to study meteorology and find that reply a little patronising. Anyhow, my alma mater has featured one of the greatest meteorologists the UK has produced, Gordon Manley: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Manley

Three great subjects (as I have made obvious earlier), geography being my real and lifetime love but the others can be a lot of fun also. Find your passion at school, follow it relentlessly and enjoy it. Feb1991blizzard - physics and maths describe the fundamental processes and equations behind the phenomena on the earth and are the building blocks on which geography rests, but physical geography is the study of the earth and the processes happening on and around it encompassing all other academic fields. "Geo" meaning earth and "graph" clearly meaning to chart or map - critically this study is holistic in linking all other scientific fields together to understand the earth and its dynamics.

Just been making my car ready for winter: I also found an artist's impression of what the River Dee in North Wales will look like in a couple of weeks' time:

Agreed. Mathematics at A Level underpins Physics, and the two underpin advanced scientific geography including meteorology - these three (geog, maths and physics) were my A Level subjects and gave me a superb base to build on in degree-level geography and MSc-level remote sensing (the latter a combination of geography and physics). Knowing about thermodynamics, density and atmosphere-ocean interactions are fundamental to understanding global circulation and weather patterns.

A real yo-yo of temperatures in the next week or so it seems! A bit like earlier this year (March? I cannot remember exactly) when we had a warm/very cold transition in a matter of days (from t-shirts to scarves in a week). It does look to me that the remnants of Rafael merged with the low off the southern tip of Greenland will drag some pretty toasty air (for October!) up for a nice weekend/early week across England at least to start with. I have been mostly looking at the GFS on Netweather's free charts tool (many thanks for this guys) but have glanced at the ECM and UKMO, and it looks to me that there will be a north-easterly next Wed/Thurs through to Sat/Sun toppled briefly early the following week before a colder northerly plunges down later that week from slightly further west. Interestingly the latter is looking timed (though in FI of course) for my trip to Sunderland to see family, so perhaps I will see snow there? During that period the GFS also has the 528 dam line reaching to south-east England by my reading of the chart. Regardless of the chances of snow it is looking pretty good to me for a pretty cold end of the month/start of November, that is, after a pretty nice weekend first up.

I was watching the one further south (of the two cells over Yorkshire on your radar screenshot) which is the one that started here - it just looked to be growing into something significant on the satellite image but now looks more like a very active 'normal' cell rather than a supercell, though it is still going strongly over Yorkshire (as is the one to the north). Some big old Cb's still passing here too.