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Chris W

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Everything posted by Chris W

  1. Chris W
    I don't want to mis-read things but that storm that initiated over here and has since crossed Manchester appears to be growing according to Sat24 - not becoming a supercell is it?
  2. Chris W
    Massive rumble there, pretty sure it was thunder - edit, I'm in Birchwood, not Chester...and it was thunder followed now by hail. Thunderstorm.
  3. Chris W
    Electrical activity has started up in central Wales and it looks like there may be more to the south west on the radar. Hoping that stuff in Wales comes somewhere near me, the charts Coast posted look good here as far as CAPE, lapse rates and shear go. Last night was a very wet one indeed in Chester.
  4. Chris W
    I'm a little concerned about Tuesday-Thursday with that strong-looking secondary low rounding the main area of low pressure to our west and approaching from the south with more apparent energy/moisture than a standard westerly and then becoming stuck for most of the week. All in all from what I've had a chance to look at it's going to be a bit of a battering next week, though of course things could change.
  5. Chris W
    Looks from the forecast track like extratropical Oscar will come for us from the south west, potentially bringing more tropical precipitation with him - as if we need any more (after Nadine's offspring)! A few days off at least however, so it could change.
  6. Chris W
    Plenty going on in the Irish Sea as that intense rain band looks very convective - interestingly for me there is some activity heading into NW Wales which could potentially keep going and reach me. After yesterday I think it is perhaps likely to be swallowed up by Snowdonia or just not amount to that much, but perhaps not...
  7. Chris W
    Yes, I saw the forecast track today - could be quite a large low pressure system in that case, but it is a long way off and as Nadine has shown these things can be unpredictable.
  8. Chris W
    It has quickly gone pitch black here.
  9. Chris W
    Been eyeing up an approaching anvil on the way home (two in one day, what a rarity!) - not far away now and that lightning over Gwynedd is heading my way too! We'll see what happens.
  10. Chris W
    Yes, that would be the one - it seemed to be extending west from ahead of me (I was travelling north on the M6) and it was the largest classic anvil I have seen for a long time. A real beauty of a cloud. It seemed to dissipate over Yorkshire however. Presently a line of showers is forming along the occluded front (later becoming a trough on the Met Office fax chart) across northern England into central Ireland which could turn thundery soon. It's particularly interesting for me that according to the Met Office's charts and forecast rainfall that the 'tail' of this front/trough will travel across from Ireland and that it will rain heavily from Anglesey to West Cheshire from around 4-5pm well into the evening as this tail becomes oriented west to east. Could be interesting storm-wise, but also cause further flooding as we're utterly saturated (not that others are not of course) around here! Edit at 4pm - we're in business, electrical activity starting up over Bangor and other locations along the rain band and elsewhere.
  11. Chris W
    I have just seen a massive anvil north of Warrington on my journey to work this morning - a majestic sight especiall in the morning sun. Somebody to the east should get something good out of that I would imagine.
  12. Chris W
    That storm looks like it could be bad news if it approaches land, it is very large indeed.
  13. Chris W
    A lot of heavy rain in Cheshire today but nothing electrical and it looks like that might be it for today. However the Met Office have been mentioning thundery showers in their day 1 to 5 summary, so we will see.
  14. Chris W
    It's all looking quite interesting for today, the occlusion currently crossing Wales with some embedded convenction and more behind it by the looks of SW Ireland at the moment. Just starting to rain heavily in Birchwood after the rush hour burst this morning and a quite clear, sunny interim period.
  15. Chris W
    That is incredible, I hope that people are safe and their property can be salvaged - of course this meaning their very shelter in the case of those owning narrowboats.
  16. Chris W
    Saw a bolt from the storm that just passed Chester, but due to traffic I wasn't home in time to see more. The already-soaked streets of Chester are even more so after that deluge!
  17. Chris W
    We have had some more rain tonight, that has abated now but the wind is picking up.
  18. Chris W
    The foam is amazing, but the commentary is even better! Having looked at the rainfall radar and Met Office forecast maps it does look as though there are convective showers being drawn towards the UK from the channel - once the main prolonged rain event from this system clears it does look like a more thundery picture later tomorrow and into Thursday. It was thankfully a little easier getting home tonight, though roads are still partially flooded and the Dee is on the rise in its lower catchment. This is a crazy event, and I feel for those who have suffered from it.
  19. Chris W
    We had 33mm at work today and when I looked at Chester (nearest gauge Hawarden) just before leaving the office at 5 there had been 53mm today. Two routes into Saughall (where I live, just outside Chester) were deeply flooded and the only other was flooded but just passable at several points. We have a new pond half the size of the garden too. It will be interesting trying to get to work tomorrow, it is just starting to rain again!
  20. Chris W
    I can't remember seeing lows come from the south too often so this is very different territory for me - I have a couple of question points: - Coming from the south, over potentially warmer waters (and interacting with land over Portugal/Spain perhaps) than usual when coming from the west, how does this develop the storm differently to a 'normal' south-westerly autumnal low? - This may be well-related to the first question, but since this low from the south is spawning directly from Nadine (it seems) then how would the more tropical characteristics and nature of Nadine feed into it? Is it just a question of it having more moisture and energy? It does seem from what others have posted here that something will develop over the weekend and into Monday, it's just a question of how intense and the specific track. I see that the Met Office have early warnings out mostly covering the south at the moment.
  21. Chris W
    How many TSs/hurricanes go extratropical and then turn back into a TS or hurricane? I have never heard of it happening, but can very much see the possibility of Nadine doing this if she is directed south again this week. It certainly will be a few days of buffeting for the Azores, if they aren't being so buffeted already. The tracking video above was great for seeing the low level circulation and high level outflow, thanks for posting it Coast.
  22. Chris W
    What a strange path Nadine is taking! It has been fascinating to track this storm over the past week or so and see how it deals with the high pressure over the North Atlantic. It seems like the models are leaning towards Nadine taking a slow route east (becoming extratropical fairly soon) towards Gibraltar and then turning north to come almost due south towards us, following another depression not far ahead. Of course it could all change a lot, but I'm certainly not ruling out the chances of a visit - come whenever that may!
  23. Chris W
    A squall has just passed through here - fairly heavy rain and gusty, looks very intense on radar now as it strengthens, and the Met Office have a thunder symbol over northern Scotland.
  24. Chris W
    Looks from GFS to be set to curve back towards Spain and only make extratropical transition not long before it reaches there (check the North Atlantic modelled wind speed!), then possibly heading north towards southern UK. Could be quite eventful if that happens...or it could follow the due north track west of the Azores high and fizzle out over the Labrador Sea. Very much worth keeping a keen eye on for now though.
  25. Chris W
    Looks like a squall line (or convergence) is developing - intense rain in Birchwood for the last 5 minutes and it looks extremely heavy over Preston towards Leeds.
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