East_England_Stormchaser91

It just proves that you don’t necessarily need a summer like 2018 or 2006 to achieve record breaking extremes. The same could be said about winter. E.g the BFTE 2018 or 1987, which overall weren’t too cold, just extreme spells.

There’s a big difference being able to breach 40c here and 37c. You can get 36-37 under the 20c iso no problem under the right conditions. We had the 24-25c isotherm slap bang over us at 3pm on the 19th July 2022. I don’t think we have ever seen that before in the history of record keeping. Even with that, we only just managed 40c. That was no regular or normal occurrence.

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come.

Whilst I’m excited. I’m also a bit annoyed that this is happening into March. Even if it was a month earlier, we could have seen so much more effect from the deep cold. We can’t take away the fact now that solar input is many fold stronger than it would’ve been only a month ago, as we near to the peak acceleration rate of solar insolation per day. As good as the BFTE was, and 2013, even they felt somewhat ‘wasted’ compared to what they would’ve delivered in say late January. 1987 and 1991 were pretty much perfectly timed events.

I know the charts and foresight were minimal back then, but at only 5-7 days from the start of what was to be the most brutal period of weather in living memory, you would be scratching your head looking at these charts wondering where it could possibly come from and how it could happen!! Uppers of 0c and above across most of Europe, a fairly organised PV in a fairly undesirable area. Pretty zonal for the best part!

A very interesting battle going on, pretty much all predicated on what that bout of heights does from the Aleutian WAA, and how the residual greenland heights behave. If we can get that link up, that should change the outlook completely. Over the past, cold spells have often sprung up very quickly. 2012-2013 during January, it wasn’t until the mid timeframes that a scandi High suddenly built up. None of the models were interested one bit post 180 hours into each run until we got to more or less a week before the event unfolded! That was otherwise looking like a tedious mild winter.

Starting to get a feeling that some real fun and games could be the other side of Christmas. This isn’t no ordinary winter setup in our Hemisphere. Perhaps this is just a taster of what’s ahead. Most classic winters started off with a preliminary cold snap. Gav from Gavsweathervids highlighted this in one of his historical videos. The height rises from the Aleutian side could well start things off.

We need to get this week out of the way first, the I’ll be looking at any breakdown that’s meant to happen. None of the models predicted 4-5 days ago that parts of the SE would be having their best snow event since 2018 at the moment. So much can change in a short amount of time. We need to see if that surface high materialises and sinks into Europe, and how the attempted height rises from the south pan out.

Glad many are experiencing some decent snowfall. Hoping we have a few flakes out of it as it journeys North.

Areas in the NW saw significantly more snowfall than was first predicted throughout last night and today, so who knows. It’ll be a nowcasting event I would imagine! Some may get quite a dumping from this.

180+ hours is a long time in these situations. I’ll be ignoring any hint of a breakdown until we have agreement right across the board. In the meantime, it ain’t looking bad!

If the models are struggling how far north the low will get over the next 4 days, then how can we trust any FI output!? Until we clear that off, we can’t know for sure how long the cold May hold on for. Also the Scandi trough, how strong will that get? We don’t yet know! These small differences over the next 48 hours could change a lot over the next week or two! That’s why we are starting to see model disagreements creeping in.

Yes I believe so.

Starting to pay attention now to high res outputs, and already we have a possibility of a cheeky little channel low that’s popped up on the runs out of nowhere! This could be quite a snowmaker for London, Sussex, Kent etc!

We rarely get prolonged cold. But once here, believe it or not, it can be a real nightmare to shift. March 2013 lasted well into April. It got to the point where people were absolutely sick of it and even wishing it away! It was spring mind you. Im looking forward to seeing how this approaching Azores low pans out. We could end up with a real snow fest from it!

The GEM decides to bring a Bartlett in at the end of the run! You have to laugh. Straight in the bin that one goes, I’m sorry. A broken clock can tell the right time twice a day!

My word, the Icon is a thing of beauty up to 120hrs. Streamers piling in down the east coast!

Got my eye on that precipitation heading down the North Sea. I’ll let you know what it delivers if it keeps together! Lamppost watching is back folks. It’s been a while!

The fact that there is a huge absence of jet stream power being generated off N America is sending the models loopy. Effectively just floating low pressures with no pushing power. I would expect any block to the N or E to put up a better fight due to this. The UKMO and icon send the Azores low away east, which is the best outcome for us to sustain cold, effectively cleaning the Atlantic of any phasing of shortwaves exiting canada. If we can build a fortified cold pool over the UK and Europe, that’s when the real fun and games could start. All eyes on if the low undercuts us, and then if Scandi can tap into that super cold air flooding in from the Asian PV!

Wouldn’t bet against it. Expecting to see more of them runs crop up as we head on. The idea is certainly being toyed with.

Right. Time to look no further than 96hrs from now on in. We need to watch that Azores hurricane and the Greenland heights as from today. Until they are resolved, its anyones guess on what will happen after! Expecting some big differences from the models over the next two days, from blowtorch southerlies like the loopy GFS has churned out, to potentially screaming easterlies.

GFS is going for another attempt of a beasterly after all that whirlpool of confusion in the Atlantic! Another episode yet again of one flew over the cuckoos nest!!

These charts were the start of the blizzard of 1978! The 0c iso was up as far as NW England. Looking at that, you would think it would be a cold rain fest for most! Shows how the fine parameters such as low dew points play a crucial role in these setups.

Funnily enough, 62/63 was also a very cold winter for the gulf coast states I believe. There’s very similar patterns going on!!

It’s good to see the continent getting blanketed with snow, as this will give any easterly some teeth and help to generate cold pooling as we head through winter.