East_England_Stormchaser91

As I said just yesterday. Take note.

Depends, easterlies are more of a high risk, but higher reward game. I would rather an easterly over a northerly, as they tend to be less marginal due to generally lower dew points. Plus the uppers from the East tend to be less modified if they are in place. You would rarely see sub -15’s make it from the North.

This snowstorm that cut off Dartmoor and exmoor, plus many other parts of the UK had 0c uppers creeping in on the SE side, and many would have been watching a chart like this worrying the mild sector is getting too close! The uppers for most were no lower than -8. There was 20ft snowdrifts by the time it was done! These runs are exceptional, and should be treasured and made the most of!

Almost 60 years later… It couldn’t could it?..

Just seems to be getting better run by run. The GEM is pretty insane. Some will be getting buried if that verifies! Every model seems to be singing off the same hymn sheet too, which is that bit more reassuring. ECM, over to you.

Before we get to the 12z rollouts, here’s a rational and if you like, a sobering post. As we head into this event, there will be chops and changes, there will be extreme roller coaster rides and some runs we would rather not see! Through experience, I’ve never known a clean transition with no disagreements into a good cold spell, it’s always been very dramatic, emotional, hair raising and tense. I tell no lie when I say I have seen the big two titans (The ECMWF and GFS) saying the exact opposite to each other at less than 72 hours from the day of commence. I’m sure that was on the lead up to the Feb 2021 cold spell. 2018 and 2013 also had similar conflicts! The best one was Dec 2005, when the easterly got binned off 48 hours from the day, only for the forecasts to do a 180 degree turn and have it back!! I hope we see a fantastic event, but just be prepared, nothing is a guarantee!

Relax folks. The models are just testing and playing with possible scenarios post 168 hours. The blocking and easterlies are already starting to begin, and as long as we see those building blocks to our Northwest, there will be bags of potential. One thing I do know is that the “wind from the east, is no good for man nor beast”! It will be a shock to the system even for the next few days. Some proper winter weather to kickstart meteorological winter for a change!

Getting hard not to get excited now about this up coming potential cold spell, after what has seemed to be an everlasting summer! Again, I’ll reiterate, with the seas being so anomalously warm, the chances of thundersnow and intense convective wintry showers will certainly be there. The real interest will be if that extra tropical low decides to head up towards the channel once the cold is in, as that would potentially pave the way to an old school proper Nor’Easter type snowstorm. As long as you maintain a dry and cold feed off the continent, and keep those dew points low, then you are less reliant on colder uppers. 1978 I believe had uppers of 0 to -2 degrees for most who got buried. Let’s hope for the best!

If we do see some of that proper cold advected over from the Asian part of the vortex, then this will be a real snow making machine! Sub -15 uppers if we miraculously do get them will give us “lake effect” type snowfall probably not seen since 1987! BFTE came close, but the sea was anomalously cold!

In the words of Reed Timmer, that was an impressive “wind bag” event!! Seeing some decent crawlers to my W, but the main bulk heading for here died out over Cambs! Typical.

Yep. Very good levels of speed shear today. I can see it getting very interesting later on for the SE. Supercell possibilities have even been mentioned on Dans forecast.

Wow this has turned into quite a system! A weak MCS by the looks of it over E Wales. Some more lively stuff heading for Hampshire and up towards London. Has to be one of the best autumns for a while in terms of proper convective activity.

This is mad for nearing on late October. Certainly making up for the hot, but almost stormless summer! Glad some are being treated to some late convective activity.

Very soupy here in Lynn right now. Very calm and still too! Noticing the seagulls are quite vocal however and flying inland. That has always been a giveaway for an imminent storm over the years I’ve been observing!

Wow look at that forming in the SE now! Bedford up to the W of Peterborough looks very impressive too. What a morning! So late on in the season!

An absolute monster. Hope everyone has got out of the way of this imminent destruction. Praying for everyone.

As always at night, there’s usually an uptick in intensity, as well as entering those bath waters!

Well, it’s been quite a summer alright. However, mid September certainly marks the end for me. Creeping darkness already setting in with cloudcover, with a northerly setting in! Wont be long until them hopefully crisp, frosty mornings!

Once again. Some amazing cloudscapes left right and centre today! If only this setup has been earlier in august when the sun had more insolation power!

WOW this was that stationary storm in Montpellier a day ago

The wrap around is starting to happen now across the board. Westerly motion in those showers approaching E Yorks. Expecting some of the stuff off East Anglia to perhaps start to trundle Westwards and offshore convection to perhaps head in over the small hours! Could throw up a surprise or two.

Another good day! Very good cloudscapes. Activity should continue offshore too around the SE and the E coasts in particular! Tomorrow should be half decent too, and perhaps off from the get go along the East. If you thought it was over too, it may well be not. A late plume now looks on the cards for next week!!

My god it’s like a Florida-Esque day today. Some magnificent cloudscapes and CB’s littering the skies! My favourite type of weather. Perfect.

Or cloud impedance. Think I’m seeing the anvil top rather than the base.

Seeing the flashes from that Ipswich storm! Looks really active!! Making the best of the warm N Sea temps