East_England_Stormchaser91

If the models are struggling how far north the low will get over the next 4 days, then how can we trust any FI output!? Until we clear that off, we can’t know for sure how long the cold May hold on for. Also the Scandi trough, how strong will that get? We don’t yet know! These small differences over the next 48 hours could change a lot over the next week or two! That’s why we are starting to see model disagreements creeping in.

Yes I believe so.

Starting to pay attention now to high res outputs, and already we have a possibility of a cheeky little channel low that’s popped up on the runs out of nowhere! This could be quite a snowmaker for London, Sussex, Kent etc!

We rarely get prolonged cold. But once here, believe it or not, it can be a real nightmare to shift. March 2013 lasted well into April. It got to the point where people were absolutely sick of it and even wishing it away! It was spring mind you. Im looking forward to seeing how this approaching Azores low pans out. We could end up with a real snow fest from it!

The GEM decides to bring a Bartlett in at the end of the run! You have to laugh. Straight in the bin that one goes, I’m sorry. A broken clock can tell the right time twice a day!

My word, the Icon is a thing of beauty up to 120hrs. Streamers piling in down the east coast!

Got my eye on that precipitation heading down the North Sea. I’ll let you know what it delivers if it keeps together! Lamppost watching is back folks. It’s been a while!

The fact that there is a huge absence of jet stream power being generated off N America is sending the models loopy. Effectively just floating low pressures with no pushing power. I would expect any block to the N or E to put up a better fight due to this. The UKMO and icon send the Azores low away east, which is the best outcome for us to sustain cold, effectively cleaning the Atlantic of any phasing of shortwaves exiting canada. If we can build a fortified cold pool over the UK and Europe, that’s when the real fun and games could start. All eyes on if the low undercuts us, and then if Scandi can tap into that super cold air flooding in from the Asian PV!

Wouldn’t bet against it. Expecting to see more of them runs crop up as we head on. The idea is certainly being toyed with.

Right. Time to look no further than 96hrs from now on in. We need to watch that Azores hurricane and the Greenland heights as from today. Until they are resolved, its anyones guess on what will happen after! Expecting some big differences from the models over the next two days, from blowtorch southerlies like the loopy GFS has churned out, to potentially screaming easterlies.

GFS is going for another attempt of a beasterly after all that whirlpool of confusion in the Atlantic! Another episode yet again of one flew over the cuckoos nest!!

These charts were the start of the blizzard of 1978! The 0c iso was up as far as NW England. Looking at that, you would think it would be a cold rain fest for most! Shows how the fine parameters such as low dew points play a crucial role in these setups.

Funnily enough, 62/63 was also a very cold winter for the gulf coast states I believe. There’s very similar patterns going on!!

It’s good to see the continent getting blanketed with snow, as this will give any easterly some teeth and help to generate cold pooling as we head through winter.

Very good charts all across the board! It’ll soon be time to start analysing the high resolution models, as flash disturbances will crop up. Many decent snow events have occurred at very short notice in past cold spells!

Beat me to it! Looks like a beast from the east in the making now after all that dross in the mid time frames! All for fun at this stage of course.

UKMO is a cracker once again. Severe blizzard with many getting buried on that one! This is just too much! The drama is only going to crank up in here over the next few days.

00z GFS is like one flew over the cuckoos nest! Little dartboard lows all over the shop. Little or no point at all watching anything past 150 hours at the moment! The models haven’t got a clue on what to do regarding this extra tropical depression approaching the Azores and the height distribution over the Northern latitudes. At least the cold is actually arriving, that’s the main thing to bear in mind.

I can see this going down to the wire at some point. Worry about the Northerly extent of the low at the actual time of event! December 2017, the low went against all odds and decided to slide in the last few hours. It ended up being 200 miles from where it was forecasted to be. The fundamentals for now is that the cold will be arriving. That’s far more important. This Azores low is going to cause a lot of headaches. We need to keep the new foundland low heights separated. That will change everything!

Just seen a big flock of geese heading in a SW direction! They are probably ahead of the game and getting out of here.

My word!! That is utter filth from the ECM! That wind would not feel pleasant at all. It would be absolutely cutting!

Incredible charts all across the board yet again this morning. The UKMO is perhaps the pick of the bunch! As long as that one is saying yes, that’s the main thing, historically the most pessimistic model of them all. The GFS goes for a repeat of 1978!

The Azores low is often our friend in situations like this, as it stops the Greenland heights from sinking. Also that low heading through Iberia works it’s magic by becoming part of the main vortex lobe and flooding the cold air SW on its departure. A very good trend to see.

96 hours on the ECM. I would struggle to draw a better chart!!

Up to 96 hours, the ECM looks fantastic! A split vortex and incoming Northeasterlies. This looks far different from 2012, as we already have an easterly and heights building up towards Greenland now at present. In 2012 I’m sure we were relying on the heights building before we even got the easterly, which failed to happen. The ECM here has just been over progressive to shunt the low heights out West. They haven’t even started to oscillate around the high yet! It would be foolish to write this off after one run and lack of cross model agreement.