Gorky

This shows the CU field becoming more active around Lubbuck. http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/...t_big&itype=vis I'd expect something will break through in the next 30 minutes. It looks like a very broad area of activity. Finding a discrete cell is going to be very difficult today...

The CU field is looking really impressive over and to the east of Lubbock. I think this is the first area which should explode. Some well developed cells also crossing over from New Mexico into Texas which are approaching severe level. You should haev some action down there :lol: Looking to your North East, it looks like something might be ready to form in OK too. Looks like an outflow boundary which might have a chance at causing a few cells to develop

May I ask where you are located at this moment in time? Edit: nm Paul just answered that :lol:

Looking at Satellite, I see what might be a small line of Cu developing SE the Plainview area. They only appear on the last frame so I'd wait and see whether they are increasing in numbers. If they are, there might be some initiation the in the next hour or so. I can't say I'm impressed by the Guthrie storms, and the storms to the north are probably out of reach... I'd probably still play the panhandle area but don't move too far south leaving you a few options open to charge north if necessary..

At least the storms seem to be coming to you this year, unlike last time. I seem to remember you covering 8-9K miles last time round. I think you could probably sit parked in Childress for the next week and see storms every day looking at the latest models.

Upgraded to moderate risk now. Seems to be a very similar case location to yesterday. Maybe you should target a bit further south to try get on the end of the line of storms. I guess risk missing out on any storms at all if you got too far south... Personally I'd think about the Lubbock area for a starting point, but that might be a little far west. I wouldn't want to be playing catchup on these storms even if they aren't progged to be moving this fast. Threading your way through as MCS can't be fun I think storm coverage will be pretty widespread, so starting anywhere in the oanhandle should be good

The storm in Hardeman county East of Childress is showing nice rotaion on GrLevel2, has been tornado warned, and is still showing a TVS after 3 scans. Hope they are on that storm right now

No problem.. A storm is just a giant heat engine, and it needs to be able to breath to fuel itself. If other storms are close by, they block inflow into the storm. This is why the southern most storms of a complex are usually the best targets, as there are no storms south of it to obstruct inflow. You can see that perfectly today in the way the Mitchell County cell has dropped several tubes whilst being unobstructed to the south. You'll see the phrase Tail End Charlie been mentioned a lot over the next few weeks I bet Reports so far: 2114 5 E DOUGHERTY MOTLEY TX 3394 10100 SEVERAL REPORTS OF LANDSPOUTS 5 MILES EAST OF DOUGHERTY THROUGH 8 MILES WEST OF ROARING SPRINGS. THE CIRCULATION INCREASED IN DEPTH AND EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE TO THE (LUB) 2145 6 NW CLARENDON DONLEY TX 3500 10097 (AMA) 2210 5 E WESTBROOK MITCHELL TX 3236 10093 TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST EAST OF WESTBROOK (MAF) 2214 5 E DOUGHERTY MOTLEY TX 3394 10100 SEVERAL REPORTS OF LANDSPOUTS 5 MILES EAST OF DOUGHERTY THROUGH 8 MILES WEST OF ROARING SPRINGS. THE CIRCULATION INCREASED IN DEPTH AND EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE TO THE (LUB) 2227 1 W COLORADO CITY MITCHELL TX 3240 10088 A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF COLORADO CITY NEAR THE WEST INTERCHANGE. (MAF) 2240 10 ESE TURKEY HALL TX 3433 10074 TWO STORM CHASERS REPORTED A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO (LUB)

The team can only reply when they are near a wifi hotspot, and I doubt they'll desert a storm to find a library / motel etc just to let us know what they are missing another thing... Storms colliding isn't a good thing as far as storm chasing goes. The storms lose structure, and are less likely to produce tornadoes. An ideal supercell is discrete, with as much distance between it and the next storm.

Out of interest.. the Colorado City storm had 2 tornadoes reported with it at once earlier... here's the report ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY... AT 527 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TWO TORNADOES. ONE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE WEST OF THE WEST INTERCHANGE IN COLORADO CITY. THE OTHER TORNADO WAS NEAR THE POWER PLANT ON HIGHWAY 163...5 MILES SOUTH OF COLORADO CITY. THE TORNADOES WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

I really doubt the team are still in Beckham County.. They are probably on the move which is why they havn't been posting here... I'm sure they are on one storm or another

Tornado warning now in effect for Hall County. Confirmed tornado earlier 6 miles NW of Clarendon. Another confirmed tornado in Mitchell County

All of these storms you are seeing are supercells... Long lived storms with broad rotation... Anyway..tornado warning now in effect for gray county based on radar indicated rotation. Strong rotation also showing up in Southern Hall County and Central Motley County. Hopefully they are on one of these cells

There is a tight couplet showing on the clarendon storm at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go tornado warned soon. I don't see anything at the surface, but it's really rotating higher up!

Tops are actually 42.5K on that cell from the Amarillo site. It is right on the Frederick sites range limit so you are best switching to the Amarillo site for now. Or you can just load up multiple GRLevel 3's and look at all of them

The radar site at Frederick, OK is closest. Vance AFB, OK and Amarillo, Tx are also justwithin range

Looks like things are getting going... Seems to be a cell trying to break through near Pampa. Should be the first of many today.

The soundings from Frederick don't look bad at all (5000 CAPE at 21z predicted). Shear profiles look a bit better than most other areas, but still not great. If there are going to be any tornadoes today, I'd expect it to be in this area.

Well they've just upped the area to a moderate risk based on hail risk. Also there is now a hatched 10% tornado chance in Western OK. Looks like a good day on the cards... Good luck guys.. you don't know how envious I am of you being out there

Personally... I would choose the extreme east of the Texas panhandle as my start location, somehwere between Canadian and Childress. I think storms will initiate just east of Amarillo and move east into OK. They'll probably be high based for a while, but hopefully, you should be able to get some nice shots if everything stays discrete for a while. Tornado threat is marginal today, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tubes dropping if your lucky... (think of El Reno last week)

Interesting that the tornadoes in Missouri followed the same path as the last ones through that area hitting Caruthersville again. Maybe it's trying to take away Sedalia's claim to be the tornado capital of Missouri

I think the picture says it all really...

Remind you of anyone?

We had some snow here in the morning. Nothing since though although the clouds have frequently looked like they were about to dump some white stuff on us

We've had some light snow here in the last hour or so. Didn't realise till I went outside, and there is a very light dusting on the cars.