Snowshine
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Posts posted by Snowshine
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58 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:
At least there will be some interesting severe flooding about??
It's rained here for 48 hours now, and I've got to ride to head office on my motorbike shortly
I don't think that interests many people, and also the rain is not particularly heavy for severe flooding. It's just persistent light/moderate rain, although perhaps heavier in other areas given that rain tends to dissipate over my area as it moves over the Cotswolds.
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Lots of flood alerts across the region now.
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Local river forecasted to reach it's highest ever level next week, which probably won't happen, but it baffles me that the Met Office haven't even issued any warnings here.
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16 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:
All eyes on sunday night/monday now, if we can get that low to drop just slightly south so we dont pick up those southerly winds (as the euro shows) i think the whole region will have a decent snow event
Most of the region*
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This doesn't look good... could be a lot of rain for the region over the coming days (or snow for the lucky ones).
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Some of the best snowfall I’ve seen in a long time. Only been properly snowing for just over an hour but it’s already really thick on the ground
Very nice! Can't say I'm not a bit envious, but do enjoy it while it lasts!
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Just now, sheikhy said:
Which part of warwick you in mate!!!
South of the region in Stratford
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14 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:
Raining south Brum. how useless
Can confirm. It's raining here (as expected), and temperatures have gone up to 0.6C in an hour, marking the start of a dreary week of weather.
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Temperature remains cold at -1.6C, I do hope we at least have a morning snow event before the inevitable rise in temperatures turns everything back to cold rain.
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1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
Latest icon has some snow falling quite far south
Probably won't last long though as temperature climb by tomorrow afternoon.
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A very cold and foggy day here, but I can't say I'm not disappointed with the forecast of 5C by tomorrow afternoon and cold heavy rain all day, which is pretty much the worst it gets.
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The latest model runs do look better for those in the north of the region, but not necessarily good for areas south of Stafford. I'm personally not expecting much, being in the least favourable part of the Midlands for snow (from these marginal setups).
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Latest GFS and ICON pretty much sucks for most areas in the short-term, and APERGE limits snow to northern areas. Hopefully the outputs will change over the next 24 hours, otherwise cold rain it is (and a lot of it) for much of the region.
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11 minutes ago, Catacol said:
I'm a bit surprised at the lack of MetO warnings. Are they seeing something different? Looks to me that even away from the south coasts the winds will be high and a fair bit of rain will fall. Ground is already saturated. The lack of a yellow warning right across the southern half of the country feels very odd.
I don't think they're particularly sure about the northward extent of the wind or the areas that will receive the most rain, because even at this stage there remains uncertainty, but I do think they need to consider expanding the warnings (at least for rain), because last time they failed to cover several areas that were affected by flooding.
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Lots of rain in the forecast for parts of the region in the coming days, but still uncertainty about the strength of the wind (which will depend on the northward extent of the storm).
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Current models suggest that Storm Ciaran will directly pass over the region, thus keeping the strongest winds to the south, and the heaviest rain to the south/north. However, a slight shift could change everything, and it's unlikely that the final position has already been determined.
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Rain mostly confined to southern areas this week.
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Models suggesting more rain tonight, probably 10-20mm for most areas, even more locally.
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Warwickshire flooding... and yet no warning of it by the Met Office.
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Unexpectedly significant rain in Stratford, still raining, roads are flooded.
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52 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:
had around an inch of rain so far, but there is no warning for my area, and it looks like another inch to come or more during the day?
Yes more rain than expected here too, and I'm not convinced the next band of rain will miss the region entirely.
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AROME suggesting that the heaviest precipitation tomorrow will actually be south of the current warning zone. Close eye needs to kept on later model runs, but this certainly justifies a low-certainty high-impact yellow warning.
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Cloudy day here...
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Maximum wind gusts of 35mph forecasted here. A yellow wind warning is not justified whatsoever, the exception being in the far north/west of the country.
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Midlands Regional Weather Discussion
in Midlands Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Snowshine
The rain is pretty light so flooding shouldn't be a major issue, and forecasted rainfall totals are not particularly high. Having said that, the models have done a pretty poor job at accurately forecasting rainfall totals recently.