Barry12
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Posts posted by Barry12
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ECM 00z, GFS 12z, and many of the GEFS perturbations are showing another attempt at ridging towards Greenland around day 10. GLOSEA5 is also showing support for blocking mid/late Nov so there is certainly a bit of support for the ECM. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a growing trend.
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Certainly a cold next 10 days if ECM is correct...
No mild Atlantic weather to be seen...
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It's actually ECM, UKMO, JMA, NASA, NAVGEM vs GFS at the moment...
If the GFS is correct here, it will be the biggest upset since Leicester won the league!
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I really rate the NASA model personally...
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It's good that the mild on the Gfs 18z is out in FI and its mostly chilly before then but seeing mild in low res is nothing to be concerned about as its still only autumn.
Yes Frosty its staying cold throughout the reliable according to the GFS 18Z, just got to be patient and wait for the real cold that will come later.
patience grasshoppers...
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59 minutes ago, March said:
But to put it into perspective, the next three months could be on average 0.5C colder than average and that forecast could be right and still the weather would be no where near what you want if you enjoy cold.
One month could be well below average with significant snowfall and the other 2 months mild, averaging out at average. I'd take that!
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NH profile looks better on this run which is more important down the line...
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Met Office seem to disagree with this forecast, but we'll see whos closer to the mark come March 1st.
Best of luck iapennell
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You know we are in a good position when one individual GFS run in FI has the Atlantic influencing our weather for a short period of time, is the worst thing we've seen in weeks. In the reliable timeframe we have cold air incoming from the East bringing temperature below average for the whole of the UK. We have a massively negative AO, GLOSEA and the EC46 are forecasting mostly N/NW winds for the UK for most of November. We are in a great position, theirs no need to be negative.
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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
On the face of it the charts 120 through 150 look very nice, but in reality the coldest air never really makes it across the north sea. However, it will no doubt still feel more than nippy in any breeze. Good charts to see though so early in the season:
The cold is more prolonged though
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Much better, 18z on the left...
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Finally the good charts have made it into the reliable, a look at the ECM, GFS, UKMO at day 6-
All agree on a ridge building to our NW, and cold air sweeping into the UK from the East.
ECM and GFS agree on atleast -4 uppers for most of the UK
Pretty impressive for the start of November!
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Looking a bit chilly...
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A quick summary of next week from the GFS 06Z before the 12z runs...
Monday
A very mild day with temperatures widely into the mid teens, possibly late teens in some areas in the south. Dry apart from far Northern Scotland that could have some heavy rain.
Tuesday
Still a mild day for the south with 14-15C in the south, but colder air starts to move into the North making it feel rather chilly, especially in Scotland with temperatures stuck in the mid single figures. Bit of t'old rain clipping the far north of Scotland.
Wednesday
Thursday
Remaining cold with temperatures struggling to get into double figures, dry for most apart from NI and western Scotland where heavy rain is possible.
Friday
The Weekend
Staying cold with temperatures slightly below average, with some sharp frosts for the North of the UK.
So in summary - a mild start to the week before colder air moves in by mid week, making it feel much colder especially to the North of the UK, with some frosty mornings! The colder air remains for the weekend. Nothing extreme but feeling seasonal, hopefully by week 2 we can import some properly cold air and get some snow finally.
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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Another corker in progress as we speak.
The -8c isotherm getting nearer and nearer with each run and better Greenland height profile on this run.
Yeah, far better run in terms of Greenland heights, who said the blocking is starting to disappear!?
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Very cold air not too far away...
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9 minutes ago, andymusic said:
lovely model charts with blocking this year I grant you and the set up is definitely different to other years - and it's very early in the season yet for "true" cold - but one thing that does seem to be repeating itself is the way the "colder/cooler" charts keep getting pushed back around the change to low res - from Halloween - mid-way between halloween and bonfire night - bonfire night - and now after onto the 7th Nov and beyond - looks like - in past years - we may be chasing ghosts again - I hope that's not the case though!
It's only the 28th October so you can't expect deep cold as you say, but the colder/cooler charts aren't being pushed back to low res? by day 4 colder air starts to move into Scotland, and the whole of the UK is in colder air by day 5.
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Brilliant GFS run in FI, as a ridge moves into Greenland and we start to pick up a cold flow from the North East
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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Even by next midweek the Gfs 18z still looks fine with above average temps further south. A humdinger indeed!
Can't wait frosty! It could even reach the dizzy heights of 13C in our neck of the woods, I think I'll get my BBQ out!
The GFS have average temperatures throughout, but still plenty of blocking, massive differences at day 7, so plenty more changes to come.
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UKMO brings the Greenland block back!
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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Classic example of the ECM over amplifying things in the long range only to correct to less amplified in the mid-term. I think we need to be very cautious of any amplification shown by the ECM beyond T144, seems to have had this problem for a couple of winters now.
Good to see continued support for a disorganised vortex though, that's the trend we want continuing into early November.
The charts I posted are actually from the GFS, but yes I agree with that.
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I've got to admit I'm a bit underwhelmed with the output this morning, ECM would have average to above average temperatures throughout. And while the Northern hemisphere is still looking blocked - which is far better than last year. It's still nowhere near as good as it was just 48-72 hours ago.
The GFS chart on the left is the forecast for the 31st October 48 hours ago, the right is the current forecast
Lets hope the 'good' charts staying in the 7-10 day range isn't a theme this year!
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Big differences at just day 6 on the GFS and UKMO
Nothing is settled yet...
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5.4 please pal
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Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Met Office Warnings Issued For: West Yorkshire
Yellow early warning of snow
From:
1200 on Tue 8 November
To:
0900 on Wed 9 November
Updated 4 hours ago
Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m.
Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, there is the potential for snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this.Please be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions in some areas.