Barry12

They could be here next week! Promising early signs for cold and maybe snow.

Good agreement at just day 6 - the changes are now creeping into the reliable timeframe. All of the big 3 models agree on the ridging towards Greenland, and a very wounded vortex.

Chance of snow for the 1st November!?

GFS is looking very interesting, backs up the spectacular ECM this morning with the block retrogressing towards Greenland. Ensembles also showing strong support for this also. All this starts at just day 7 too!

I've been looking at the GEFS ensembles over the last week and the signal for blocking to our NW has just been getting stronger and stronger, nearly every single perturbation has the block retrogressing to the NW, as well as a completely beaten up vortex, and as Steve Murr said this is starting at just day 7 I'm starting to think this November could be special!

The start of November continues to look interesting this morning on the ensembles, which backs up the ECM monthly and GLOSEA5 with mid Atlantic ridging and a disrupted polar vortex.

Some very interesting GEF ensembles at day 10, with WAA moving towards Greenland... Possibly a trend growing as we head into November, which is what I believe GLOSEA5 and the ECMWF monthly have been hinting at.

The trend has been continuing to build throughout October for significant blocking over Scandi. The latest ECMWF monthly and GLOSEA5 confirm this trend will continue into November. The PV looks a totally different shape than it did this time next year and I remain convinced this winter will be far better than last year based on the models and background signals

Most of us dont live 400m above sea level though

All the signs and signals are there in the models for a very cold February...

I was rather optimistic about this cold spell a few weeks ago, and for Northern England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Midlands, this cold spell has been pretty good. We've seen lying snow and we've struggled to get above freezing. It's certainly not a bad cold spell if you can achieve ice days in the UK. The signals are their again in the models in the mid/longer term for another cold spell, with heights building to the East. My take on it looking at the models is that the Atlantic will break through by the end of this week/next week temporarily before we return to cold temperatures as we get a East/SE flow during the last week of January and into February.

Next Sunday looks very cold, maximum temps of 0-3C, northern England and Scotland not getting above freezing...I wouldn't call that mild!

Don't worry caterpillars, the NASA model is looking good.

The GFS 06z backs up the thought that this may be a prolonged cold spell, next weekend is looking very cold for everyone with -5 uppers at worst, snow could fall anywhere, including the south. Friday Friday will be bitter with max temperatures of 0-4C. Much of Scotland will remain below freezing. So any precipitation should fall as snow. Saturday Saturday is also very cold with temperatures between 0-5. The medium range is not looking bad at all, many of us will see snow, and Scotland/parts of Northern England could even get ice days, which are certainly not to be sniffed at living in the UK.

Expect the 12z to be even better for longevity than the 00z's, should see a more stubborn and robust Greenland high. I am increasingly confident of our best cold spell since March 2013. Get set...it's coming.

As I said last night, I expect a more prolonged and significant cold spell than most people see. The models this morning are starting to reflect that. Expect further upgrades in the coming days. Get set...it's coming.

Looking at the model runs over the last few days I am increasingly confident of a prolonged and significant cold spell, like one we haven't seen for many moons. Get set...it's coming.

Yes, I'm your friend in Durham.

Have you ever experienced cold and snow for months on end? if not you can't possibly know.

Tis a bit windy owt there

Thanks, that was very insightful.

good idea Paul

yeah it was very good

last winter in west yorkshire above 100m was good, this one be better though

Hello everyone, my Dad's friend works as a cleaner for the Met Office. Apparently they were shocked to see their new £100 million super computer predicted a winter similiar to 1965/1966. The Met Office weather forecasters told him not to tell anyone, as they didn't want the public finding out.