Barry12
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Posts posted by Barry12
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Really getting fed up with the "Ahhh no SSW anticipated" or oh MJO is not playing favourable thus "game set and match... " the weather is much more dynamic and sporadic, its never clear cut. I would much rather be a meteorologist lets say, 50 years ago there is just too many variables to play with nowadays. I think it is out of order to come to assumptions ruling out Jan ect ect, when we have difficulty forecasting the track of Fridays LP, time will tell as always but some of you come to assumptions like psychics. Sometimes you just need some luck, these background signals are really just droplets in a big ocean. The overwhelming influence to our weather patterns is the Jet stream, we have got too advanced in my honest opinion.
Completely agree.
The Met Office would have an easy job if they could write of cold for months based on the fact there isn't a SSW or a favorable MJO phase.
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Yep can't argue with that and it was a very minor warming so I would say anything remotely exciting on the models shown really can't be taking seriously.
But I certainly can't rule out at least a frost in feb
You do realize there can be cold spells without an SSW? there was no SSW in December 2010.
Frost is impossible without an SSW though, so I'd rule that out
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The solar output as others have mentioned is a definite player, long term via the min and maxs and short term with the geomagnetic input.
Nah, isn't that what James Madden bases his forecasts on?
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GEFS perturbation 3 is the best...
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Am I missing something here, 1-3c at 6 am in the morning in the middle of Jan, is hardly dream material is it.
I know that they would be lower on the ground, yes its a trend maybe.
I hope that you will be posting similar charts with temps around -4 to -8 over majority of the country soon.
There max temps during the whole day, not at 6am. If you are hoping for max temps of -4 to -8 your going to be rather disappointed!
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Yes the trend continues, but two weeks away and certainly not across the board. Far too risky to think it will turn out like that. If I was a betting man then it would all be on zonal for the rest of January.
A couple of days ago, people were posting day 10-16 charts as proof the zonal conditions would continue. Now they are showing cold and heights building into Greenland, the charts are suddenly unreliable again. The trend starts at day 11, so we should see tomorrow if the other models give support to the GFS, if they do then I'd say it's odd on that heights will build into Greenland. What happens after that, is open to question. It could just be a short cold snap, or it could be something more sustained.
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The trend continues...
It now starts at day 11...Let's get the heights into Greenland before worrying about what happens after...
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It does: via MOGREPS...The GM to T+144 is only a facet of the Unified Model output.
But it's not freely available!
We should all raise money so we can have a Netweather model
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The UKMO should go to day 10, just going to day 6 is poor!
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GEFS control run continues the trend along with the GFS and GFS P
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Yes it is coming but what year?
I wouldn't rule out winter 2015/16, but I am talking about this winter, this month. Patience grasshopper..it's coming.
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- Popular Post
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Patience...it's coming.
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i think it's the manner of its failing or bias as it gets a lot of people excited as it tends to be bias towards building heights in the desired places time and again only to jump ship last minute now.
GFS is completely over progressive with the Atlantic though, each model has there faults.
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The ECM is far better than the GFS, the stats prove this. It's ironic that the same members that go on about how poor the ECM is past day 7, post day 16 GFS charts to back up there views! ECM day 7-10 charts are far better than GFS 16 day charts that's for sure.
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I've no expectations for Saturday may rain may snow
may hail, may sleet
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The GFS 18z runs especially the GFS P are actually pretty cold throughout the run with frequent cold NWerly incursions, not as bad at all as some were making out. More snowy spells would be likely for the Northern half of the UK, and possibly down to lower levels with -6 uppers at times.
Happy New Year as well...
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Chance of snow again on Saturday
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I remember the bad old days pre 2009 when these forums used to rage at the constant cold that the greeks used to get well looks like those bad old days are back http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014123112/gfsnh-1-144.png?12
They are bathed in -10's and we get +4's
im sure most greeks would prefer +4
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I would give them a chance to analyse and review it all at the END of the winter first and consider what other factors may have come into play over DJF! It is still yet to be peer-reviewed as well remember and is part of their ongoing research?
The only drawing board they need is to stick the faces of people who treated it like a dead certain forecast!
A -OPI was meant to correlate at 90% for the following winter to have a -AO and -NAO, I am fully aware it didn't mean cold and snow.
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The OPI team need to go back to the drawing board!
If there theory was correct we should be have a -AO and -NAO, but we don't...
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Eh Ian's a meteorologist so he loves the weather he doesn't get hung up on cold like I want lol...bet he has a preference in Winter though hehe
A lot of meteorologist/weather forecasters don't seem to like cold and snow, which I find very odd!
anyway back on topic, I think in a weeks time we will be looking at interesting charts, big warming forecast in the stratosphere over Greenland, this should make an impact and get a better NH profile.
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...Thankfully there's nothing negative showing for those of us who simply enjoy/marvel at 'The Weather', irrespective of it's complexion.
How can you enjoy/marvel at grey cloud and rain!?
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What is Barry ???....
The pattern change...
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Get ready...it's coming.
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
If people are going to going to write of months based on FI charts then they shouldn't be allowed to views the models. 'Theres no SSW, winters over', 'the FI shows no cold so we can rule snow out!' it would be fine if new members posted this, but people who have been hear for years still do it.