[Cold hunt - models and chat]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wanted more but better.

What is incredible with these is last nights 18Z GEFS ensembles had the coldest member in F.I at only -2C!!

Considering the ECM I have increasing confidence that low pressure is going to track S into the Med  with a developing -NAO. However what no member should currently have confidence in is whether the orientation of the block brings bitter N/E,lys to the UK. Such a fine margin between bitter E,lys and mild S,lys!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be our moment? The thing we've spent the last three-months hoping for?

  

 

Bloody hope so. Although the 06Z GFS is where the ECM is heading hence my earlier post.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

At least the GEFS ensembles have slightly improved compared with the 18Z although that isn't saying much!

The ECM is pretty decent at +240 and if it went out to +300 a pretty decent cold spell would be affecting the UK.

These are the only positives I can find amongst a generally poor set of 0Zs.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles.

Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking we probably won't but we'll see.  This winter is getting right under my skin now!  Sadly, I think we all know deep down it's a lost cause now.

Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.

Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.

After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Dare I use the word POTENTIAL.

+162 GFS!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

It makes perfect sense where i sit not even great background signals for a -NAO can flip it.

Always much more likely to see a +NAO in Dec compared to Feb. Also I can think of many occasions when the NAO has been positive in Dec but negative in Feb.

If you look back then historically UK cold spells have always been more likely after Xmas than before. The Likes of Dec 1981, 2009,2010 were very unusual.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

 To get a cold Feb we need a trigger to break the climate trend, last March was from an SSW. 

 

Was it though?

Clearly this winter has shown that just one variable i.e SSW isn't the sole reason for a cold spell in the UK. The bitter E,ly last winter would of been caused by other variables being favourable.

I shall repeat what I said at the beginning of this winter and have said for several years now. The reason why we cannot forecast using Teleconnections is because we do not fully understand them and more importantly how they interact with each other. You then have the added complication of the UK being a tiny Island.

Obviously this doesn't mean members should give up trying. However if members want a more stress free model viewing next winter then they should take background signals with a pinch of salt until this promise appears at +144. I started this winter with a new approach of only viewing to +144 with a glancing look at the ECM to +240. However I admit the temptation of looking at GFS +384 was too much when promising charts failed to appear within the reliable timeframe.

[Focussed Model Discussion]

Have to say John  I disagree with your analysis.

I agree with the mild outlook but pressure is likely to remain high. So settled for most except maybe Scotland who may see more in the way of unsettled weather. The SLP mean for Cambs remains above 1020mb.

Possible colder for the last week of Feb?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

15 minutes ago, West is Best said:

A friend of mine wrote a bestselling book. It could have been about today's GFS, UKMO and ECMWF model runs.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Winter-Suspense-Thriller-really-ebook/dp/B00DNA49WO

That's a goddam awful set of runs for cold 

Only straw to clutch is the GFS Para continues with its GH scenario and dare I say very 1978/79ish. I think virtually all of yesterdays Para runs went with the GH outlook.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of.

Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

End of Feb most likely landing point for any cold, thats if we see the hoped for MJO response.

Would be interested to hear from GP as to what has gone so horribly wrong for us.

I too would be interested along with hearing from Chionomaniac and Bring Back 1962-3.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

This has been the strangest winter I have ever known since becoming a member back in 2004.

What stands out for me is actually the lack of promising charts in the model output. Rarely have we seen a GH being modelled and is why the GEFS Iceland mean has never got above 1020mb. We have only had one failed E,ly when normally this occurs several times. All of this combined with the promising long range forecasts has made this winter somewhat odd.

Just add this winter is nothing to do with a lack of cold air over the Arctic. The simple reason is a lack of blocking in the required locations. Have we already forgotten about the relatively recent cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010, Last years BFTE!

Back to the current crap model output and all I can say is it must get better because it cannot get any worse!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144.

However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Difficult to work out the outlook because even at +144 the UKMO is more amplified than the ECM. This all impacts on how we move on from here i.e High remains in situ over Scandi or backs NW to Greenland. The pendulum keeps swinging because the UKMO keeps varying between the most promising at +144 to being the worst.

I will say though I cannot help keep looking at the chance of blocking to our NW developing and the PV dropping into Russia. Can we see the dream scenario of an incredibly cold airmass moving towards the UK during the last week of Feb??

After the dismal winter we deserve this winter to go out with a bang!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS Para suggesting snowfall on Sunday across Midlands/N Wales/ E Anglia.

Might cheer up Victor Meldrew i.e Shaky!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean peaks with a low of around -4 on the 00z 12z was around -6.

The 00z mean is a bit higher from the 11th onwards compared with the 12z yesterday

00z

 

12z

 

 

At this stage I wouldn't expect much colder temps to be honest.

What is apparent to me is from +168 to +384 we are finally seeing a weakening of the PV over the Canadian side of the Arctic with this transferring over towards Siberia/Asia. This can clearly be seen by looking at the N Hemisphere GEFS mean charts for this period.

My focus remains beyond the Scandi HP, should it develop?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The easterly may however just be a stepping stone towards  eventually pressure building to the nw  or north.

 

Excellent point Nick which members should take note of.

Should the E,ly develop which at the moment is looking likely. The depth of cold although subject to change is unlikely to bring what many seek on here. I feel we're going to need to see this high back W into the Greenland/Iceland location and bring in those bitter N/NE,lys. The GFS Para is a good example of this.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

How I wish this run would coninue into +400 plus!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates the atlantic will soon hit the buffers with a strong block forming to the east extending over the uk.

 

My main concern is still with the Iceland SLP mean.

A suggestion for next winter especially for any new members here.

Whilst this winter we have seen many promising signals, forecasts from various sources, the GEFS SLP mean for Iceland has hardly ever gone beyond 1020mb. You may ask why is this important but back during the infamous Dec 2009, 2010 cold spells the SLP mean rose and remained above 1030mb from a considerable distance out. Whilst these can obviously be wrong its always worth checking these ensembles when a GH is being predicted from various sources.

I will add im not having a go at the background signals. This winter has been very odd and left many scratching their heads. Yesterday I was reading back some forecasts from a Pro Meterologist who produces weekly forecasts for 1 month ahead for Canada, USA. Im not going to mention his name but OMG how inaccurate he was. One update would predict below average temps for NE USA and then the next update the complete reverse. For some unknown reason this winter has been unforecastable!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I think the outlook is becoming a little clearer to me.

Firstly increasing support that some may well see snowfall around 12th Feb as the low clears to the E. The GEFS show this nicely with the dip towards -7C in my location.

The tricky part is beyond as the UKMO continues to be the best output. My thoughts are something inbetween the UKMO and ECM. I do not believe an E,ly will develop as this is where the UKMO +168 is heading. I neither believe in the position of the high by the ECM. So no E,ly or S,ly but instead high pressure being centred directly over the UK.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Have to be honest im not sure what to make of the models at the moment as we have seen everything from S,lys via Africa and biting E,lys from Siberia.

One thing I will mention is if the UKMO is right along with some of the output yesterday then an intial E,ly is unlikely to be the beast but at best a NE,ly with around -8 to -9C uppers. For a decent chance of a real cold blast would require movement of this high towards Greenland. Simple reason we need to pull some cold arctic air on the eastern flank of the high.

My heart is saying we could yet see this evolve into something more special as its always good to have the UKMO as the most promising output. My head says something along the lines of the ECM i.e UK controlled by high pressure but neither a very cold E,ly or the dreaded mild S,lys.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Incoming E,ly on the Parallel. Incredible difference compared to Op. Something a foot here!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Only just viewed the GFSP.

Interesting that its only the parallel run that continues to support UKMO/ECM with regards to a wedge over Iceland, jet further S. For whatever reason the GFS Ops seem to differ. Nice to see an increase of sub -10s on the GEFS ensembles from mid Feb.

I agree with Nick S. Gone have the Exorcist type horror charts and instead we have something more similiar to the Hammer House of Horror. The younger members won't have any idea what im on about. The intro music still scares me.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Although the outlook is uncertain im not buying the medium range suggestion of the jet being orientated SW-NE, high pressure to our S, S,lys from Africa!

If I had to take a punt then more likely unsettled with the jet orientated W-E and at times NW-SE with colder NW,lys especially for Scotland. An unsetted outlook more akin to early winter than late winter when blocking is normally more prevelant. Could well be hopelessly wrong though!