[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48!

Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards]

Torrential downpour at the moment.

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Finding this all too much as it is still 30C here.

These sorts of temps are great on a beach in Ibiza with a pint of stella. Stuck in Peterborough isn't the same!

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Still 36C at RAF Wittering nr Peterborough at 6pm.

Very unpleasant although the radar has cheered me up!

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

After a short shower we are now back to 36C here in Peterborough. I see Cambridge is 38C!!

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

My hotspot prediction is looking good as Cambridge is now 36C. 34C in Peterborough.

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

29C here. Massive increase of 4C within the last 30mins.

For some reason RAF WIttering always lags behind other locations in E Anglia with regards to warming up. However this often catches up or even exceeds after lunchtime. Still think Cambridge is going to be the hotspot today with a temp of 39.5C.

[Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6]

11 hours ago, West is Best said:

Still, thankfully folk on Net weather have your forecasting skills on which to rely, Dave. When it comes to spotting an Easterly you're way ahead of the game.

The Yellow warning area for Storm Freya was appropriate and commensurate, especially in the south-west where it gusted to 76mph. Their actual forecast wind strengths in the relevant zones were correct.

 

Im not disputing their forecasting skills. My point is do wind speeds of 40-50mph really warrant warnings? These kind of wind gusts are common during the Autumn/winter months. If the Met Office keep issuing unnecessary warnings then the general public will become complacent and ignore warnings that are needed.

This is my last comment on this matter and we shall have to agree to disagree.

 

[Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6]

On 05/03/2019 at 07:46, West is Best said:

Fortunately we rely on something more empirical.

The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph.

The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west.

You can't make this stuff up.

During the so called storm the wind gusts were generally between 40-50mph in inland locations such as the midlands with the occasional gust between 50-60mph. I still maintain this does not make a storm in my opinion.

We have to be careful because if we see warnings for trivial weather events i.e warnings for 2cm of snow from snow showers. What will happen is the general public will become complacent and no longer heed the warnings when something more significant occurs.

By the way my comments were not just about the Met Office but generally across many platforms i.e newspapers, websites, forums etc.

[Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6]

Top gust of 58mph here with 50mph generally across the Midlands.

Call me old fashioned but years ago this would of just been a windy day. Now we call these storms as we lean towards more american type forecasts. In my opinion a storm is when gusts inland widely reach 60-70mph with exposed locations hitting 80-90mph.

[Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6]

Gusts only around 40mph at the moment for my location and much of the Midlands. Obviously expecting this to increase but nothing exceptional.

[Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

You may of course be right, though it's blowing up wildly down here now,

 

Rather OTT.

At 08.50 Exeter airport was reporting windspeeds of 19mph. Not what I would call wild winds!

[Winter 2018/19]

Incredible to think I haven't even seen snow falling let alone lying snow. I believe the only time snow did fall was one morning around 5am but obviously I was in bed asleep.

I started this winter by saying ignore background signals if the promise isn't being shown in the reliable timeframe. I also said I was going to ignore long range model output and stick with +144 with a passing glance to +240. Im glad I did and shall do so next winter.

 

[Winter 2018/19]

Incredible to think that on the 28th Feb last year the max temp in Peterborough was -5C!

[Winter 2018/19]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I presume the locals are getting sick of it now?

Thats the same as living in locations such as Egypt and moaning about the heat in summer. If you live in a location such as Edmonton in winter then you expect to be freezing.

An incredible day today with the record being broken. Have to mention I also think we are looking at record breaking inaccurate long range forecasts. Never have I seen such inaccurate LRF's for this month after 40 years of following the weather!

[Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps]

One positive of this winter is the poor homeless haven't suffered as much as they would have if a big freeze occurred. Cannot imagine what it must be like to be homeless when temps are well below freezing.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Good news for coldies, the Ecm 00z isn't quite as hot as 24 hours ago..it's still very mild / unseasonably warm though.

Still very dry aswell.

Only recorded 47mm of rain so far this year. Combined with the dryness of last year then we could do with some rain!

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, offerman said:

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter.

The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast .  Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this .

I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations  falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented.

Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly .

As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !

Morning Nick.

This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing.

Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

[Winter 2018/19 – cold long range models, SSW events and favourable global drivers… where did it go wrong? A review.]

What I find rather interesting is when I joined this forum alot of focus was placed on the Atlantic SSTs which is understandable. However in recent years less focus seems to be placed on this with more and more teleconnections being used in forecasts. I actually think that since forecasts have become more technical on this forum the accuracy has decreased  So I shall ask a few more questions.

1. Should we take a more basic approach at forecasting next winter by for example keeping a closer eye on the Atlantic SSTs?

2. As many on here (including myself) are biased to cold. Do you think that maybe we are looking at signals that point to cold too often? Should we also look at signals that might point to the contrary. Allowing your bias to skew your forecast is one of my biggest faults and I openly admit that!

Good thread this by the way.

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Agree. Some anomaly images are already showing that we did indeed have a strong positive anomaly over Greenland.

I disagree with this.

Just been looking at the actual recorded SLP mean at Ittoqqortoormiit in the S of Greenland. Now during the cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010 the recorded SLP was between 1030-1040mb. The SLP during Dec 2018 was only around 1005-1010mb. During Jan into Feb the SLP has been generally around 1015. At no stage has the SLP ever get above 1020mb at this location for the entire winter. This makes sense to me as I always follow the Iceland GEFS SLP mean and here this has never got above 1020mb.

So whatever the anomalies show, for me we have never seen any form of a GH.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I am meaning to say that if when we are approaching or at a solar minimum, and only a weak El Nino in place, on top of that an SSW in early January, we still end up with a milder than average winter in 2018-19, punctuated by only a couple of weeks of relatively cold weather.  If you look at winter 2018-19 like this then it would appear that the winter climate of the UK has become in a worse state for cold prospects in the past six years since 2013, and that since then UK winters have notched up into a super warm era as opposed to the warm era which appeared to begin in 1988.  We managed a fairly average winter in 2017-18, with a few cold spells, and then even closer still to a solar minimum and only a weak El Nino we end up with a winter not as cold as last year's close to average winter, so winter 2018-19 clearly shows that something is up and has become worse since 2013.  With a much poorer winter than many expected this year to be, and even what the background signals suggested, it is now starting to look as though a winter like 2017-18 may be the post 2013 baseline for winter cold in the UK.

Firstly its is widely considered true that there is a lag effect from solar Min and this may have implications for our winters over the next few years. Secondly ENSO, SSW, Solar, are only 3 variables amongst many others. We may search for the causes of this disappointing winter but I doubt we will find the answers!

I said recently that when I joined this forum some considered classic cold spells a thing of the past. Look what happened next we had the incredible cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010. Lets not forget the incredible E,ly last year.

I am as disappointed as everyone else with this winter. However lets not have a knee jerk reaction to it!

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Whatever your opinion on teleconnections, many on here will be rather more sceptical about predictions of a looming cold spell next winter. However this is a good thing because nobody should take any medium/long range forecast as gospel whatever method is used.

I have enjoyed reading the posts this winter especially from Catacol. I find his posts to be very informative but at the same time easy to understand.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think that everyone got it wrong, Dave; and, even in the days before teleconnections were discovered, we would still have all got it wrong?

What if the weather has fundamentally changed? 2016-17 was another winter that defied endless 'BOOMing' and came up with nothing; last year's was only saved by an SSW; and, last summers heat seemed to go on forever, despite continued expectations to the contrary...

I'm just thinking that it might not be so much a cockeyed interpretation of the 'background signals', as a fundamental (at some level) shift in weather patterns?

Who knows?

You could be right and maybe these signals 20 yrs ago might of delivered a 1962-3 winter. However who knows the real reason and can we be sure that is the right answer?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

27 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Even though it hasn't been cold and snowy, a mild and benign winter is the next best thing.  A reasonable winter in my view.  I guess the disappointing thing viz. cold/snow has been the high expectations (background drivers, Met Office 15-30 day forecasts etc.).  It's those expectations that have left people flat!

Spot on with your assesment.

The only positive is hopefully some members next winter won't take the background signals as gospel and use them as possible indicators on how the weather MAY turn out. I enjoy the posts from Catacol, GP and their posting style.