[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

The affects of the heights across the arctic are having more of an effect on the UK on the 06Z GFS as I mentioned the other day.

Just a shame that the modelling is predicting the PV to be ramping up and heading back towards Greenland. Potential for a very stormy period to develop at the start of Feb and might yet prove to be cold and unsettled rather than mild/unsettled.

Plenty to keep our eyes on.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

So the warmings in effect aren’t much use unless they finish off the PV .

They keep flushing down the mobility and so unless you get a reversal it’s long term pain for zip gain !

You really couldn’t make it up ! 

This is why you rarely hear me comment on any post referring to the Stratosphere. So many variables that would make my head hurt! Will it be a minor or major warming? displaced or split vortex? where will the split or displaced vortices/vortex be located? How will the current ENSO, MJO and other variables interact with such a minor/major warming? How is global warming affecting some of these variables?

Im not knocking anyone who uses such methods but as you know im not the biggest fan of these forecasts using teleconnections etc. However I was very unfair to the members who use them i.e Tamara, Chionomaniac, Catocol etc which I continue to feel ashamed.

I prefer just to stick to the operations/ensembles and my gut instincts. However my guts have been way off this winter, probably too many curries.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There’s a point in the GFS 6z T216 where it is tempting to think with better alignment of the pieces of the puzzle, a cross polar ridge could develop, which would put us on a very different path to what I think some are assuming is a descent into persistent westerlies!

 

Meanwhile, a much stronger warming on this run, too:

 

GEFS 06Z Control is looking very promising.

If the 12Z GFS is similar then I feel the ECM may move towards this. More gut instinct than anything else I hasten to add.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Certainly an improvement after my negative post yesterday. Very uncertain outlook though because of the way the models are constantly changing the effects of the heights across the Arctic. The ECM is less favourable than the GFS but it is improving compared to yesterday.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

I am still disappointed with the output. At the moment I fear our high pressure will eventually sink S towards the end of the month/start of Feb and we see a return to milder, unsettled, windy W,lys.

Only straw to clutch is the scatter in the GEFS ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

I have found the output recently disappointing. I enjoyed the frosty spell before xmas but now the idea of high pressure with frosty nights unappealing. All this means is boring weather which is costing me a fortune in heating.

We could yet see the high back further W, which could bring snow showers to E coastal regions. However without any link between the high and the arctic means any N,ly flow will become toppled very easily.

On a positive note I am rather reluctant to look too far into the outlook as I don't have much faith in the medium/long range output.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Need to get those bloody low heights away from Greenland...

At the very least the W coast of Greenland. 

Slightly disappointed with what appears a lack of snowfall potential for my locale. Currently looks like I shall have to wait and see what develops in the N,ly flow.

On a more positive note as I always see the Atlantic Vs blocking to our E as a game of tug and war. Seems the blocking is gaining some momentum which I noticed last night in the GEFS mean.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Excellent run especially for those in the far S/SW. I would love to see the likes of Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire etc get a good dumping of snow.

Having said this at the moment such is the uncertainty everyone has a chance of seeing snowfall.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

When duration is discussed it is worth remembering there is no Block advertised in the  necessary place for a long cold spell.

Atlantic Highs rarely provide more than a 3 day colder snap.

Hopefully as we approach T0 the high res models will have a better handle on troughs/ disturbances ..

 

Very true and is the main reason im keeping quiet at the moment.

Impossible to predict the detail for early next week and I have zero faith in the output beyond. Dreadful consistency from all models and like I said the other day I find some of the output very odd. For example why is the ECM OP so consistently out of sync with the ensemble mean. Fair enough today it's just at the end of the run. However I have never seen such inconsistency.

These models will never have 100% accurate starting conditions but something is a miss and the GFS seems to be affected the most.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

15 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Don’t know why people care so much about the Exeter Update. It’s the ultimate fence sitting/ hedging bets option there is. 

They might as well write "We haven't a clue"

The forecast mentions a return to settled conditions but then predicts a return to unsettled conditions, generally mild but a chance of snow in colder interludes.

I have the utmost respect for the Met O but the longer range is a waste of time.

Back to the models the GFS/GEFS is very much out of sync with the other models at only +168.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

You always know the signal for cold is looking promising when you have such a different model run between 0Z ECM & GFS 06Z and yet both produce a promising output for cold weather. However sometimes this can mean they are both wrong!

Been a funny time viewing the models because from an instinctive point of view the weather patterns are not behaving as I would expect. No idea why though and if you cannot figure out why a forecast went wrong in the past then you will always struggle to predict the future.

Basically this is me saying I haven't a clue what is going to happen. Shall just watch the output without making any predictions.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

To be fair that's true but I think at this range we're still around a month away from a SSW in the first place as the +VE Ural Block that's forecast won't help Wave-2 but will back up Wave-1 so we're stuck in a Wave-1 rut for now which under a polar-night jet won't equal a SSW. I think it's the poor modelling of the Trop pattern (a second Ural Block may be more helpful) that makes me think we may see it suddenly pop up but only if things go well. The trouble is that the SSW chance hasn't uptrended as I thought it might but nor has it downtrended either really. It's half a step at a time right now and it's a slow process of stretching that doesn't seem to be followed by a Wave-2 split but I could be wrong if a second Ural Block or Scandi high forms very well in early February with the way that the Strat is tending to move.

Just wanted to say I have been very impressed with your posts. I think im right in saying you are a spring chicken compared to an old fogie like me but your knowledge on meteorology is very impressive.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Looks like the 0Z & 06Z GFS are going to be very similiar  at +200!!!!!

Yet here we are with some writing off the next 6 weeks!

[Model discussion highlights]

Sorry but im not going to write off Jan just yet. Look at the sheer difference between ECM/GFS at +168 for N America.

You may think so what this is for the USA. However the point is if the models can have this amount of disagreement at a relatively short time frame then it just illustrates how foolish it is to predict the rest of this month. 

If I may say sometimes on this thread it seems as though the only drivers of our weather is the MJO and what is happening in the Stratosphere. These are just two variables amongst many others. We don't even fully understand all the variables let alone how they interact with each other.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4782586

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Sorry but im not going to write off Jan just yet. Look at the sheer difference between ECM/GFS at +168 for N America.

You may think so what this is for the USA. However the point is if the models can have this amount of disagreement at a relatively short time frame then it just illustrates how foolish it is to predict the rest of this month. 

If I may say sometimes on this thread it seems as though the only drivers of our weather is the MJO and what is happening in the Stratosphere. These are just two variables amongst many others. We don't even fully understand all the variables let alone how they interact with each other.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Frustratingly close to something very interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!

Trouble we have now, if we are to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.  

Happy New Year everyone. Glad to see the back of what was yet another dreadful year for me.

Onto the models and I must admit I didn't think the Scandi HP would have much influence yet and still think a cool W,ly becomes a colder NW/N,ly by mid month. However I am left wondering now because the Scandi HP does seem to becoming more of an influence. I don't agree it needs to happen today. In situations like this the blocking to our NE can continue to become progressively more of an influence well inside +120.

[Model discussion highlights]

Quick summary from me because there has been some odd posts tonight and some members must be very confused.

A non biased honest assessment is this. Next week will remain largely unsettled with the N/W being more unsettled than S England who may have a drier week compared to recent days. Around 7th Jan onwards potentially turning cooler/colder and possibly very stormy with gales, maybe even severe gales at times. A greater threat of snowfall especially for the higher ground of Scotland/N England but not exclusively. As the winds start veering from a W,ly to a NW,ly and possibly N,ly then snowfall at lower levels becomes more likely.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98132-model-output-discussion-christmas-week-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4780829

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Quick summary from me because there has been some odd posts tonight and some members must be very confused.

A non biased honest assessment is this. Next week will remain largely unsettled with the N/W being more unsettled than S England who may have a drier week compared to recent days. Around 7th Jan onwards potentially turning cooler/colder and possibly very stormy with gales, maybe even severe gales at times. A greater threat of snowfall especially for the higher ground of Scotland/N England but not exclusively. As the winds start veering from a W,ly to a NW,ly and possibly N,ly then snowfall at lower levels becomes more likely.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The Atlantic is coming , but the angle is critical...

I have my eye on the Arctic HP.

Big difference between UKMO/ECM with regards to the low pressure!

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Comparing the difference between the 0Z UKMO & 12Z  is remarkable and something you don't see very often. I don't see an E,ly via a Scandi HP just yet, a cold NW,ly followed by a N,ly will occur first.

I see the NW/N,ly as the starter before the main course arrives mid month from the E.

[Model discussion highlights]

Im rather encouraged with the output this morning with regards to trends in around 10 days time. My current thinking is the cooler/cold NW/W,ly will eventually become a much colder N,ly/NE,ly. This is because I can see pressure dropping  across Europe as the jet aligns NW/SE and at the same time pressure increasing over the Arctic with a -AO emerging. So I am looking at around 13-14th Jan when a more significant cold spell could begin.

I shall just add that +240 only takes us to 9th Jan. The fact some have written off Jan and even winter is frankly laughable.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98132-model-output-discussion-christmas-week-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4780230

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Im rather encouraged with the output this morning with regards to trends in around 10 days time. My current thinking is the cooler/cold NW/W,ly will eventually become a much colder N,ly/NE,ly. This is because I can see pressure dropping  across Europe as the jet aligns NW/SE and at the same time pressure increasing over the Arctic with a -AO emerging. So I am looking at around 13-14th Jan when a more significant cold spell could begin.

I shall just add that +240 only takes us to 9th Jan. The fact some have written off Jan and even winter is frankly laughable.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Looks like the 06Z is about to put the cat amongst the pidgeons or should I say Seagulls.

A classic example of how an E,ly can develop out of nowhere when low pressure decides to go SE than NE.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

29 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yes, well January has been written off lol

I certainly haven't.

Im old and wise enough to know you cannot write off an entire month and this is even more true for a tiny island such as ours. Also depends on what you are seeking. A repeat of 1947, 63 is always unlikely. However a shortlived snow event on the N flank of a low pressure cannot be ruled out even with our current pattern. This is especially true for those in N England/Scotland.

We might not have blizzards coming our way but still plenty of interest. Do not rule out a potentially stormy spell of weather around 30th Dec and maybe even some snowfall in the areas I mention. This also depends on the track, timing, intensity of precipitation.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Merry Christmas to you all. 

Shame the models aren't in a festive mood with some crap output. Im going to delude myself into thinking its lack of data and come 28th a raging E,ly is predicted for the first week of 2023.