Newberryone
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Posts posted by Newberryone
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Admittedly it’s a day 10 chart and of course subject to change but the 12z Ecm does at least seem to be holding out the prospect of something calmer and perhaps more settled after next weekend. Even in the days preceding this day 10 chart pressure does seem to be gradually on the rise from the southwest, finally moving the jet stream that bit further north. Temps would probably be about average or perhaps slightly above considering it would be a rise in pressure from the Azores.
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The 12z Ecm does perhaps present a ray of hope with regards to something drier developing for Halloween and probably going forward from that point too as heights build strongly over Central Europe having the effect of diverting Atlantic weather systems well away to the northwest. We can but hope.
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Well the overnight 0z run from the Ecm seems to have certainly done a u-turn on the chances of an increasingly unsettled outlook for the period entering the third week of September. Admittedly a lot of volatility in the models especially at this time of year owing to tropical depressions but if we’re to take the model output as it stands at face value then things don’t look anywhere near as cyclonic as they did through mid month. That Icelandic low for eg looking far less menacing than it did on previous runs. One can’t of course discount the fact that it could look very different again come the 12z.
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Woke up earlier to see pools of water in the backyard all courtesy of the overnight arrival of the by now well signposted Biscay low bringing our 4 weeks drought here in Cork to an official end. I say this because while all models do show a continuation of the warmth they also continue to indicate an atmosphere full of instability for the foreseeable future. So on the strength of that alone I would expect to see things greening up nicely again over the coming days.
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Less than 48 hours ago what looked like a continuation of our dry spell in the short to medium term has definitely changed with all eyes now on the bay of Biscay for at the very least showery outbreaks of heavy or thundery rain possibly spreading up from the southwest going into next weekend. Admittedly the next Atlantic low could bring about another plume event going into the following week as temps remain above average. The UK always fairs out far better in these kind of weather setups whereas Ireland’s will probably pale into insignificance by then when compared to what we’ve been enjoying over the past number of weeks.
Farmers and gardeners alike will no doubt be happy at the prospect of seeing some significant precipitation before too long.
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I think Irelands glorious spell may be threatened by greater instability in the atmosphere bringing at the very least an interruption to the bone dry spell we’ve been enjoying here for the last 2-3 weeks. Unlike the 00z the 12z Ecm seems to show much more of an influence with the low to the southwest towards next weekend as the high takes up its new position further to the east. Every likelihood now that Ireland will escape drought like conditions should this low become more of a player over the coming days.
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00z Ecm again showing more prominent and indeed perhaps more sustained ridging from the south ( a cold lovers nightmare ) going in to week 2 of Nov. As I highlighted in my previous post the most likely way this will play out is with the huge swathe of heights to the south eventually weakening weather systems coming in off the Atlantic resulting in a marked decrease in precipitation. As for any ridge migrating north, I think any meaningful attempt will be scuppered come the time by the northern arm of the jet suppressing the high. Temps naturally would remain average or slightly above for the foreseeable.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Charts beginning to see a change to high pressure emerging in about the 10 day timeframe. Looking like heights will build in initially from the south as the jetstream shifts north. Question is where will they ultimately set up, interesting to note GFS showing an amplified jet thereafter with trough into scandi this allows the high to ridge north through UK and most likely the pull back west. Yesterday it was going for a scandi high though.. as I said the fact it is showing varied output long term is simply due to it being unclear at the moment of where heights will eventually end up.
What has been steadfast is this signal for high pressure to take over at some point in Nov, we just can't say when and how just yet.
While a drying out period would no doubt be generally welcomed I can’t help but fear this will more than likely come at the expense of a stationary high to our south which as we all know has become more and more common. Naturally the hope will be for any such high to migrate north for example or at least relocate in time to a favourable position for us coldies but unfortunately the most likely scenario to unfold in this type of setup will be for weak weather systems to skirt over the top of the high therefore generally keeping it to our south. I know the Ecm has a tendency to over amplify in Fl territory at times but this day 10 chart for Nov 9th will I hope not verify for if it does we may have to clutch at a few straws in our quest for cold going forward.
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Well today's 12z Ecm certainly ends on a bit of meh note for those seeking something more seasonal as hinted at by the 00z run. Chalk and cheese springs to mind when comparing the 2 outcomes. In fact higher pressure from the south as early as next Thursday 3rd Nov pushes the jet stream further north unlike the previous run which overall looked far more unsettled throughout the outlook period.
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Interesting to see if today's 12z Ecm run will continue the theme of a northerly tracking jet in its latter frames as has been shown on 2 of its most recent runs. Heights to the south have been a recurring feature so much this year that I think one can feel confident that the turn of the month will see things settling down again or at least the all too familiar north/south split. One would hope that we lose the tropical airmass for something more seasonal come the time but I wouldn’t anticipate any major cooling owing to pressure building from the south.
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4 hours ago, RainAllNight said:
I have been curious about the motivation behind the Met Office's suggestion (which they have had online for the past week and have just strengthened slightly today) that we may see something more settled into November, I guess it must be based on observations like this one that are just a touch beyond me at present!!
12z Ecm ending on a note at day 10 that might just suggest we may not even have to wait till the start of Nov to see something more settled as suggested by the Met Office. Zonal it certainly isn’t, especially by day 10 with heights encroaching from Southern Europe as well as our mid Atlantic high. The low in our vicinity is just a shallow feature by then with a very inactive looking Atlantic over all.
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Like the Gfs and Gefs I certainly don’t think one can rule out the distinct possibility of things settling down somewhat again beyond mid-Oct as the 12z Ecm seems to be following a similar route by day 10. An area of high pressure over Central/Southern Europe to possibly link up with that high in mid-Atlantic would be quite a plausible outcome. A notable feature this year in particular after all has been for any unsettled looking Fl charts to be completely watered down closer to the time and this in all probability will produce a similar outcome.
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Judging by the 12z Ecm I think it’s fair to say that the mid Oct low is looking far less intense compared to previous runs with it just giving a mere glancing blow before a renewed surge of heights re-emerge from the southwest. I wouldn’t rule out a return to something generally more settled for the second half of this month as the transient ridging of present gives way to anticyclonic conditions..once more.
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Certainly looks like more of the same with a general continuation of the overall dry settled theme to see out Sept and beginning of Oct. Apart from some rain Wednesday night and Thursday and the possibility of some weak weather systems being brought down in a chilly northwesterly flow next week there doesn’t seem to be anything to suggest a change of any great significance is on the cards anytime soon. If anything, that mid Atlantic high looks poised to become even more dominant by the time we enter the new month judging by the Ecm 0z.
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Wonderful 0z Ecm run for those wanting a return to mostly dry and relatively warm anticyclonic conditions with initial signs of northern blocking eventually transferring south to form a mid latitude high late on in the run. All in all, looking very promising now for a transition back to something much drier from around Sept 14th and lasting up to the 19th, at the very least.
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For anyone yearning anything that may remotely resemble what seemed like those endless sunny days of summer ‘22 well day 10 of the 0z Ecm might be to your liking. Interesting to see if this general theme of higher heights can be maintained and indeed further built upon as we head towards the second half of September.
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While not set in stone the overnight 0z Ecm is still showing a decent improvement for the coming weekend with much more in the way of dry and bright conditions with just isolated showers, if any, Fri-Sun inclusive. Thereafter, signs of perhaps a more general reawakening of the Atlantic but that’s approaching FL territory and so it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the upcoming dryer spell will be transient in nature or not. If this past year has taught us anything it’s that once there’s any form of height rise from the south it can prove more resilient to brush aside than previously anticipated.
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Thankfully It would appear Danielle will become just a shallow area of low pressure having largely filled as it tracks harmlessly across the English Channel or indeed perhaps further south come next Saturday to be followed by renewed ridging from the south. Mixed conditions thereafter with weak weather systems occasionally brushing off northwestern areas with the driest conditions reserved for the south/southeast. All in all, very standard fare for early autumn.
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Again one can see by today’s 12z Ecm that it’s holding steadfast in its medium range output indicating a steady improvement from next weekend. Danielle will more than likely result in bringing about renewed ridging from the Azores resulting in subsequent Atlantic depressions being deflected well away to the northwest. An indicator that would suggest a north/south split going further into September with conditions best described as mixed.
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Despite any uncertainty re tropical or ex tropical storms there does now seem to be tentative signs of something far less unsettled once the spinning weeklong low finally fills and clears off to the east by around this day week leaving the next low pressure system in mid Atlantic to cause a surge in heights as it slowly advances, never quite making it though as it's kept well away to the northwest. Occasional weak weather systems skirting over the top of this high bringing about the usual north/south split is one very distinct outcome I’d envisage come mid-Sept and possibly beyond. All of this accompanied by temperatures coming in generally average or slightly above. Certainly no signs of anything truly autumnal for now at least.
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44 minutes ago, stodge said:
Once again, the problem of forecasting these tropical or ex-tropical features has significant downstream impacts on the European synoptics.
In general terms, if your storms stay well away from the British Isles, the chances are you will get HP resulting as the storms force the Azores HP to migrate NE.
When a storm traditionally recurves and becomes absorbed in the Atlantic jet, it brings energy to the jet and the storm track so pressure rises are usually confined to the south and east of the British Isles.
In a period with such a weak jet and continued northern blocking, the storms amble pointlessly around mid-ocean until either becoming absorbed into a larger trough or decaying in situ - that's what makes the mid range forecasting so difficult.
After next week's unsettled weather, it's possible a strong ex-tropical feature will kick the shallow LP to the east and allow heights to build at the end of the weekend after next but that's just one option.
Certainly has to be said that the Ecm 12z run looks far less turbulent for day 9 and 10 when compared to the 00z run. Lots of uncertainty admittedly owing to these tropical depressions but these last 2 frames definitely give weight to Stodge’s final paragraph and musings. One suspects quite a lot of water to go under the bridge before we can say with any great certainty whether our weather will be settling down again as indicated by days 9 and 10
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To my untrained eye the 12z Ecm looks far less unsettled for the first weekend of September than what the 00z was showing. The low pressure system dropping down from the northwest on the latest run looks away more shallow and again unlike the previous run it ends with the by now familiar area of high pressure beginning to exert its influence once more. Going on what this year has brought us so far I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to see next weekends breakdown of sorts being downgraded further to just a slight blip, if even that, in this overall prolonged dry settled spell. As ever, we shall see!
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Typing this from an already very wet red alert Co Cork and hoping that Eunice may not unleash the worst of her fury come the overnight period. iPhone is fully charged, just in case this does does actually become a severe weather event. Anyhow, there might just be a few crumbs of comfort to take from the 12z Ecm post Eunice in that next weeks Atlantic depressions do seem to be met with more resistance from southern heights, deflecting the worst of any of these lows to the northwest. Keep safe!
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While I agree that the overnight runs are still suggesting a far more mobile setup than of late it would appear to my untrained eye that those Iberian heights look like yet again diverting the worst of any wind and rain away to the far northwest during next week. Yes, it will become far more changeable from next weekend but the 0z Ecm run doesn’t seem to force the jet stream as far south with these Atlantic lows compared to previous runs. Something tells me that coming closer to the time we may not be seeing such a significant waning of these heights to the south after all which as everyone knows have played such a prominent role throughout January.
PS Positively springlike here in Co Cork today.-
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
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Well Met Eireann’s Farming forecast earlier at lunchtime with Joanna Donnelly for the week ahead including the Big Day itself made for very sobering viewing indeed. She was quite emphatic that it’s going to be a green Christmas stressing that there wasn’t anything remotely wintry on the horizon. Short of a miracle I don’t envisage a change to that wording when she reappears later on.