Newberryone
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Posts posted by Newberryone
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Over the last 24 hours there seems to be growing support for Xmas week to bring about some kind of drying out process with heights building from an unfavourable position for those seeking anything potentially wintry. This whole theme very evident again following the overnight runs with signs of the jet stream being pushed further north courtesy of those Iberian heights.
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As previous posters have just highlighted an underwhelming set of charts from the Ecm overnight run. Chilly few days coming up with occasional wintry showers before the usual dross heads back in off the Atlantic around midweek, i.e. changeable as opposed to overly unsettled with average temps. We can only hope the man himself might come up with one or two surprises by the 25th
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Fl so hopefully this will not play out as presently forecast but it has been more than hinted at in recent days that some kind of settling down period was on the cards nearing the second half of Dec. Doubt many will have any issues with that considering all the recent rain but when it comes at the price of having an unwanted visitor in the form of our old friend uncle Barty I’m not so sure.
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Difficult to extract too many positives for coldies from the 0z Ecm when it comes to the overall evolution for next week. After a chilly weekend there looks like being an uptick in temps again from early next week with high pressure anchored to the southwest and with only a hint of another pm incursion +240. At least precipitation levels should be way down.
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Looking into FI the good news is that any signs of an Azores/Euro high have gone, plenty of PM type scenarios and quite a chilly mean compared to other FI runs. P10 stands out, there would be some proper dumps of snow from this for the whole U.K.
To my untrained eye it would appear that the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run would suggest the opposite with regards to the Azores/Euro high. Again, not a very encouraging start to the day for us coldies, especially if days 9 and 10 verify.
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Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?
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0z Ecm not looking quite as unsettled as the previous run which should be welcome news although still very changeable. To my untrained eye it doesn’t seem to hold as much interest as yesterday’s 12z run either from a cold perspective as the jet doesn’t seem to be digging as far south in the latter stages. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see those euro heights come more into play early Dec. All in all not a great start to the day of model watching/fatigue.
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Looks like some sort of settling down period could very well be on the cards as we head towards mid-month with the by now all too familiar nw/se trajectory of low pressure systems becoming less pronounced. Looking likely that heights to the southwest could once more have a role to play in this with the jet being pushed back slightly further north. As highlighted already this evening, it's not the best Ecm run of late with regards to FI
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Going by the 0z Ecm run with the exception of next Wednesday and Thursday the overall picture doesn't look overly unsettled. In fact the day 10 chart would suggest a relatively settled picture with a recovery in daytime temps and less in the way of overnight frost as the high slips gradually south. Could all look totally different again of course come the 12z such is the nature of our weather.
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3 hours ago, JON SNOW said:
Not sure if anyone has mentioned the Ecm 0z operational T+240 hours..so I will..it's preety good in an indian summer kind of way!
Should the 00z Ecm 240 hrs chart verify I think we could potentially be looking at a prolonged settled spell with temps nudging above the seasonal average. Has Euro Slug written all over it.
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8 hours ago, E17boy said:
Good afternoon peeps
How is everyone? Hope you all are doing well. I have not been on here for ages but now my winter chase for snow has started and I have boarded the winter train.
its a very wet start here in East London Walthamstow today pouring with rain and I think that's the way the rest of the day is shaping up, autumn has certainly started.
By looking at the current modelling and the comments from the more knowledgable, looks as if we have got this pattern for some time, with some signs of the Azores high making a presence at the later stages. I mention the Azores High every summertime fans dream but every cold chasers nightmare in winter depending on where it sits.
As many of you, i do hope that we see some sort of pattern movement come November that may set us coldies up well for winter. I must admit I do feel a bit cautious due to the latest long term model predictions I do hope it's not a winter that comes and goes without any show.
I will be looking closely at the movement of the Azores High as this has been the destroyer of many of our winters. Let's hope some HLB sets up and changes the pattern we don't want to be stuck in.
figers crossed
THE SEARCH FOR MY WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN
wishig you all all a great day
regards
With the likelihood of far less changeable and unsettled weather taking hold shortly after mid month I find the above post very sobering indeed as it highlights the many pitfalls that come with pressure rises from the south as we enter one of the most highly anticipated seasons of the year. While getting a break from all the rain is perfectly understandable I fail to grasp all this enthusiasm that there seems to be for the possibility of an Indian summer. All very well if it laid the foundation for something far more palatable come Dec, Jan, Feb, but how often has that been the case.
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1 hour ago, Number 23 said:
The brutal parade of dreary days continuing for most of us.
Would pay good money to have a few days of high pressure in charge.
I'd say be careful what you wish for as there does now seem to be growing support for the possibility of an anticyclonic spell towards the end of Oct early Nov. That's all very well if it was for example high pressure building down from the north which would bring about something chilly at least. However this doesn't seem likely as many models are suggesting more of a subtropical high influence which as we know all too well does not bode well for anyone with a preference for seasonal weather. Doubt many on here are seeking an extension to summer 2019 as winter beckons.
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46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:
Looking at the Ecm 12z operational, yes it's unsettled, especially further n / nw but later in the run the Atlantic sting starts to wear off.. in the meantime, plenty more of these!..not sure about the pot of gold though.
As you rightly point out certainly no pot of gold judging by this run at the end of the rainbow, especially for those of a nervous disposition brought on by the fear of unseasonably mild weather. Should this latest output verify it would seem to suggest another 7/8 days of fairly unsettled weather before a dramatic turnabout to potential Indian summer like conditions. Just when I thought it might be safe to put away the lawnmower till next March.
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Unsurprisingly the lack of posts in here so far today would seem to reflect the latest output from the 00z Ecm. Very different from yesterday’s 12z, not of course with regards to Lorenzo but with regards to what follows.Yesterdays output had a much stronger looking jet stream suppressing any heights to the south whereas it’s the opposite today. So as it stands next week and quite possibly beyond looking very benign indeed with little sign if any of anything remotely wintry.
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Fortunately all model runs in the last 24 hours significantly downgrading any possible impact from Lorenzo but still a very fluid setup. Also noticeable in this time period has been a gradual moving away from anything distinctly unsettled or wintry post Lorenzo with Atlantic systems being veered further away to the northwest owing to a huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic. October still holding the promise I feel of something more akin to late summer than autumn as time progresses.
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1 hour ago, LRD said:
The end of the ECM run then gives Scotland and NI a gale and a lot of nothingness further South and SE
But until Lorenzo's track is sorted anything after that timescale is probably not worth worrying about
Well just a few days ago the general pattern for early Oct did seem to suggest a shift more towards anticyclonic conditions. As is often the case the models can have a tendency to drop this only to revert back to it again in a relatively short period of time. This I think is what we may be witnessing here again with heights to the south as shown on the latter stages of the 12z Ecm introducing another benign spell of relatively mild weather.
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Certainly the consistent signal for height rises to the south as we begin a new month (Oct) seem to be still very much in evidence with nothing too ominous looking according to the 00z Ecm run. Perhaps a typical north/south split with the latter favouring out best as usual.
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Day 10 on the 12z Ecm would seem to suggest, albeit tentative in nature, a general settling down in conditions again courtesy of the familiar subtropical high with temps recovering to near or normal values after the weekends cool incursion.
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22 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:
Well yes somewhat of a pattern change but dramatic?...not something we haven't experienced before this summer, and going by the ECM back to the Atlantic sometime next week though again looks like low pressure systems will be largely well to the north of the UK and probably a spell of breezy Tm/Pm air with the warmest conditions to the south (again something we've had before) so in general other than some brief pattern changes it's still similar to what we have experienced for the last month and a half.
Having seen the latest output from the 12z Ecm I think my use of the word "dramatic" in the past 24 hours or so may just have been overstating it. Things not looking quite so turbulent now with as you say low pressure systems eventually being pushed further north owing yet again to a general pressure rise to our southwest. The same swathe of high pressure that nearly 9 times out of 10 seems to take up residence each and every winter leading to another season of our discontent. Sods law!!
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At long last there seems to be a growing consensus of a potentially dramatic pattern change in our weather from Saturday on. A resurgent Atlantic isn't something we've witnessed for a very long time.
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
was decent at times last year too, cracking days into 0ct too, may not look great, but was full sun and around 22 degrees
And we all know what followed...one of the most unmemorable winters of our time.
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Overnight Ecm op run still on course for a general settling down of sorts from around Thurs/Fri but it has to be said looking slightly further ahead into week 2 that the anticyclone seems to be coming under renewed pressure from a..dare I say it, resurgent Atlantic!!
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As I suspected, TS Dorian having little impact on our weather this side of the Atlantic going forward. What is clearly evident is a continuation of mostly dry weather apart from the usual areas further to the northwest but even here precipitation looks negligible. Certainly very little happening it would seem well on into the Fi period for those especially who are by now seeking something generally more autumnal in nature.
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33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway...
Don isn't the only one who would find some cheer in this chart, however I suspect Dorian will probably have little or no effect come that time frame on those nagging heights to the southwest. The same source of high pressure that usually plagues us during winter by scuppering any cold weather potential. Far too early for any such air of despondency of course
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Model output discussion - into Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A possibility one can see in FL is any pressure rise from the south being prevented from rising further north owing to there still being to much strength in the northern arm of the jet stream.