Newberryone
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Posts posted by Newberryone
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3 hours ago, Kentspur said:
Beautiful from Icon 0z first of the day, in the mid range only 7.5days away! Lets hope for more from the big guns in the next few hours.
Well the overnight Ecm run certainly doesn’t seem to be following in the footsteps of the Icon 0z as it delivers little in the way of anything other than a continuation of the changeable dross we’ve been experiencing to date.
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Signs continuing to emerge this morning of something more springlike in nature with mid March still holding the promise of far less unsettled conditions with heights encroaching from the southwest. Fingers crossed!!
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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes, powerhouse NE flow there, deep convection breaking out almost anywhere that late in season with a chart like that but places like N Yorks, Sunderland and Newcastle would get absolutely marmalised.
Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter.
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Some brief respite from all the wind and rain it would seem through this week fortunately but the overnight Ecm still holding firm on the possibility of a general return to more unsettled even quite disturbed weather towards the end of the run. Amazing to still see the pv so unrelenting in nature.
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46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:
Looking at the earlier GEFS 6z mean as we head towards mid March is again looking more settled / benign which I’m sure would be welcomed following all the flooding this winter!!!
These charts are enough to send the vast majority of coldies on this forum into hibernation till Nov
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While the 12z gfs threw up some positives for coldies with the likelihood of cold incursions going forward the 12z ecm isn’t having any of it seemingly. A nightmare of a run again with a combination of azores/euro heights coming very much into play from 19th Feb on. On the plus side, less rainfall and slack winds of course.
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At least the 00z Ecm has reverted to showing something far less unsettled again post Storm Denis, unlike yesterday’s 12z which surprisingly was only showing a 24-48 window of opportunity of drier weather. The overnight run is again indicating euro heights will fend off the worst of anything the pv has to throw at us by veering those deep Atlantic depressions well away to the northwest from next Tue onwards. Fingers crossed!
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00z Ecm and the recurring theme of building heights to the south definitely gathering momentum. As recently highlighted by others I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to see a rerun of last February’s unseasonal warmth should these charts come any way close to verifying, post day 10 especially showing potential.
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12z Ecm and the Azores high looking primed to rid us of this turbulent spell following the upcoming weekend gales. In fact, all looks very springlike indeed days 9 and 10
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The latest Ecm run in its latter stages continuing to indicate an uptick in temps to perhaps early springlike values with heights to the south eventually settling conditions down somewhat with Atlantic lows being steered away to the far off northwest. So following the upcoming disturbed period of weather it would appear that the low pressure system( less intense in nature) modeled for next Wednesday could be the last bout of very unsettled weather we see for awhile.
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I think one can clearly see the distinct possibility of these Atlantic lows having the knock on effect of eventually bringing an early taste of spring, perhaps even something akin to the latter stages of last Feb, days 9 and 10 of the overnight Ecm run being a typical example. Just look at that renewed surge of heights from the south ahead of that mid Atlantic storm which is diverted away to the northwest as a result. Yes, the Ecm traditionally has a bias towards over amplifying in the latter stages but this scenario cannot be ruled out either. So in summary, very unsettled, potentially disturbed from Sat to Wed inclusive followed by a gradual settling down thereafter with temps by then average or dare I say above.
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Well the overnight Ecm still showing signs of windy weather, specifically the dates of the 10th, 11th and 12th with Scotland potentially in the firing line for the strongest of these winds come day 10 in particular. In general though heights to the south seem even more prevalent in this run so perhaps we might see a further toning down of this predicted stormy period in subsequent runs.
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13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Som need to get a new hobby as its taking over your minds....
Nice charts still and amplification still on the table
Amplification still on the table yes but not unfortunately to the extent that most people on here are seeking as the whole thing predictably looks like flattening out again in the latter frames. Pm incursions probably the best one can hope for going forward as a whole.
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Again this morning it would appear that we’re looking out into Fl territory for any sign of a pattern change with again day ten of the Ecm overnight run showing perhaps some promise. Other than that very little evidence to suggest those euro heights are going to do one anytime soon. Unfortunately the clock is most definitely ticking fast on what remains of this pathetic excuse for a winter season.
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00z Ecm is definitely an improvement on the previous run with the high in a far more favorable position for surface cold at least. I think we might be turning a corner for the better from here on in.
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Doubtful that we’ll even manage some form of mid latitude block with again the likelihood of too much energy still spilling out of the jets northern arm. Our winter foe very much there again to our south by days 9 and 10 bringing at best some chilly overnight temps but nothing of note I’m afraid. Best we can hope for would perhaps for there to be a displacement of the high away to the southwest leading to a northwesterly flow of sorts. In summary, very changeable/unsettled up to around 17th with the prospects of things becoming much more benign soon after. The wait goes on...
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14 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
FI on the midnight ECM brings hope! Height rises in the right places! I know it’s 240 away, but that a couple of runs now where ECM brings an easterly tease with a few adjustments that aren’t too inconceivable!
It may be a chink of light at the end of what’s been a very dark tunnel of model forecasting of late but all I can see from that day 10 chart is the likelihood of that high/block just continuing to slow down the progression of those Atlantic systems and thus maintaining a mild south to southwesterly airflow. The only positive being that those same euro heights would probably continue to deflect the worst of any wind and rain well away to the northwest.
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Just when one thought it couldn’t get anything worse the 0z Ecm dispels that myth. Euro and the Azores high even more prominent in this latest run with any Atlantic onslaught looking far less likely now next week as weather systems merely brush the far northwest.
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Again, overnight model runs do not make for happy viewing with euro heights looking as relentless as ever out to day 10 and beyond. What looked like a possible breakdown of sorts around the turn of the year a few days ago now looking more typically like a minor blip with fronts barely making inroads against those stationary heights over Central Europe.
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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:
That's s horrid ECM ,look at the size of the high pressure building from the South, throughout the run.
Complete dross,most probably verify too.
Despite what others maybe saying with regards to possible glimmers of hope emerging by day 10 I’m with Sleety on this and can only describe the 12z Ecm as hideous.Those euro heights look as if there here to stay. Unlike the 0z Ecm the 12z would seem to suggest only a minor blip in the mild settled conditions come the new year with those robust southern heights fending off the worst of any wind and rain. I feel a netweather snoozefest coming on. Here’s hoping Mother Nature will conjure up a few pleasant surprises for us come 2020. In the meantime may I wish every contributor to this most intriguing of platforms a very happy and joyous Christmas full of merriment and love.
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12 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Lol quite but just for fun this chart would see snow even from the warm Atlantic
I’d take it any day over what’s on offer over the coming week or more. A frustrating fact is that most of Nov held more wintry promise than where we are right now. At least we had a jet stream running well south for weeks on end.
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Understandably quiet in here this morning when you consider the overall outlook. 0z Ecm providing little enough festive cheer, mixed for the next few days before things possibly settle down in the lead up to the New Year with high pressure encroaching from the south and feeling relatively mild by then as a result. Pressure does try to push further north it would appear but again the northern arm of the jet playing party pooper by displaying too much energy. Signs by day 10 of the high moving back west perhaps eventually leading to some kind of chilly northwesterly.
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2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:
Plenty of good looking ENS, the control looks like the HP may head up to Greenland and introduce something much colder.
And there it goes
With support from others , where’s this coming from
I have a feeling we’re going to have a great ECM this morning!!
On the contrary Ali, a dreadful 0z Ecm run as others have already implied. Again, it would appear too much energy in the northern arm of the jet will prevent any true amplification northwards. Ops really playing Scrooge at the moment.
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1 minute ago, shaky said:
Pretty boring ecm has to be said!!ukmo has to be the best so far in the reliable time frame!!could be one of the goose chases once again!!really tired of those now!!lol
Yes, agree with you there. One can’t help but get that sense of deja vous. The overnight Ecm run is certainly not akin to last evenings gfs pub run. Euphoria to despair about sums it up.
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Model output discussion 02/02/20
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Nothing like the good old Ecm to add a touch of realism to the proceedings as borne out by the overnight run. Looking very doubtful now that we can expect any last minute surprises with regards to Scandinavian heights with more a Euro slug being the form horse. Mercifully it will at least bring something springlike to our shores at long last.