Newberryone
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Posts posted by Newberryone
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0z Ecm not painting such a pretty picture nearing years end with again, similar evolution to yesterdays 12z day 10 chart, showing an Atlantic low pushing a ridge up from the south in advance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see euro heights becoming more apparent in subsequent runs.
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3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
pressure on the rise again at day 10 towards the northwest amazing NH view
If day 10 on the 12z ecm plays out anything like what’s been shown on this run then I’d expect that Atlantic low approaching from the southwest would probably more than anything else enable a push of heights from the south ahead of its arrival. Certainly wouldn’t do anything to enhance the longevity of any possible cold spell.
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Can’t help but feel the 06z gfs op will probably fall more in line with the eventual outcome of the 0z ecm run on the 12z with a sinking mid Atlantic high by around day 10. This high then loitering with intent to our south going forward into early Dec with a benign westerly airflow with the usual N/South split as indicated by yesterdays extended anomalies and gefs. Hope I’m way off the mark but the reliability of the 06z op in Fl territory has often been called into question.
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Certainly little if any signs of any substantial relaxation of those heights to the south giving way anytime soon if the overnight ecm run is to be believed. One can see that even by days 8,9 and 10 any approaching Atlantic system is kept well away to the northwest by the all too familiar area of high pressure to the south. A stubborn feature which as we all know can scupper many a dreamlike synoptic chart from materialising. The only upside being the decent drying up process it will bring about following the recent very wet spell.
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While uncertainty is very much to the fore from approx 5 days out one can see that the 12z ecm is much slower than it’s Oz run in making any dent in high pressure to the south which does mean things look far less unsettled now as a result going into week 2. Only question now is whether or not that high to the south will gain a further hold and therefore fend off any advancing low pressure systems potentially approaching from the northwest Atlantic by days 9 and 10
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Today’s 12z Ecm by day 10 doesn’t appear to hold out much promise of a continuation of any northwest/southeast trajectory airflow. All seemed fine in this respect up to day 8 but days 9 and 10 seem to suggest the high possibly taking up residence to the south with the jet stream being pushed back further north
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52 minutes ago, jon snow said:
The ECMWF 12z operational is a generally very unsettled run and I noticed yet another ex tropical storm making it into the North Atlantic later in the run so there’s uncertainty about the longer term outlook?..but no uncertainty about the week ahead which is unsettled (cyclonic) and mostly on the cool side…certainly feeling like autumn ?
Yes Karl, medium term shows a newly awakened Atlantic after a pretty lengthy hiatus. However I’m left wondering if this ex tropical storm that’s shown in the latter stages of this run could possibly ensure that this upcoming unsettled spell will not be prolonged. Tentative signs that this particular system could quite possibly bring about a new surge in high pressure from the Azores. One to watch!!
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7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Quiet in here, suspect may be because the models are not to everyone's liking - those wanting the exceptionally calm warm conditions of September to continue to months end. Things could still change, but the trend now appears firmly on a much more unsettled end to the month, and cooler to boot. The atlantic trough is forecast to anchor down through the UK, this has been foreseen by the ensembles for quite some time, but has taken a little longer than perhaps first envisaged to take hold. Heights are set to build strongly out of Russia, which will only block the trough from moving east, and with the azores high advecting back west wards, the trough is trapped - and settles over the UK, bringing a cyclonic outlook. Could be a notably wet end for western and northern parts of the month, after what has been a very dry September so far (here at least). Temperature back down to the seasonal average, perhaps a little below in northern parts.
To be honest I’m not really seeing these much more unsettled conditions when looking at the 12z Ecm which seems to make far less of the Atlantic low early next week compared to the 0z run. Perhaps it’s because I’m looking at these charts on my phone as opposed to a desktop. Either way I wouldn’t be surprised to see further changes favouring a mixed outlook rather than anything overly unsettled nearing months end.
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On 18/09/2021 at 17:55, Mike Poole said:
Yes, I never bought into that idea of a resurgent atlantic which suddenly appeared on the models and ensembles a couple of days ago. Plenty of blocking on the early 12z runs.
Credit to Mike for calling this one early as yet again the latest Ecm 0z run has further downgraded the unsettled outlook that it originally had set to commence this coming Thursday. It now has next Monday the 27th Sept earmarked as the date for when the Atlantic trough may make inroads from the northwest but I can well envisage this being further diluted closer to the actual date. I reckon we may have to sit out this overall benign autumn snoozefest for longer than originally expected.
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I think judging by the latest model output we could be quite possibly reverting back to something less or indeed far less cyclonic than what was being forecast just a couple of days ago. These high pressure cells look far too robust for there to be any significant change right now. Nothing other than mixed conditions from midweek looks to be the form horse with any Atlantic lows having little impact as there being diverted well away to the northwest.
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Not too sure as to why there hasn’t been any comments so far with regards to the overnight ecm run. Could it possibly be that it doesn’t appear right now to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the gfs in relation to another potential plume the week after next? Anyhow, the latest ecm would suggest quite mixed conditions setting in from around midweek but with nothing either that points to anything overly unsettled at this stage.
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
Can’t be bothered at the moment. Weather has been the same for an eternity, and about as boring as you can get for late summer. I’m looking forward to the Atlantic ploughing through and ridding us of this rancid grey weather.
It’s been anything but rancid grey here in the Cork region. Glorious with many days of the past week bringing unbroken sunshine. Admittedly it was highly anticipated that northwestern parts would probably fair out better with regards to sunshine. The overnight Ecm run certainly seems to suggest an interruption of sorts to this settled spell come the weekend. Then again this could all change in subsequent runs owing to the high degree of uncertainty brought about by the Atlantic hurricane season. As ever, one to watch!
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Undoubtedly the downstream effects of Storm Elsa look like bringing us our first substantial mini heatwave of summer ‘21 but it would also appear that by day ten the high is certainly on the decline into the nearby continent with a possible return of a more Atlantic regime, yet again. Admittedly it’s somewhat premature to be overly concerned about any potential breakdown considering it’s this far out but nevertheless a possible outcome all the same.
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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
That charts is nine days away of course.
Prior to that the jet is suppressed further South.
It may be nine days away but one can see as early as the 24th those unwanted Iberian heights coming very much into play which seems to be the general theme going forward.
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45 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
The Siberian express is returning the question is will it reach its final destination? (UK). Not to mention Ireland
GEFS are now also aboard something is afoot that is clear. For coldies we have had to wait for 3 years for any shot of proper cold spell, but it seems our patience could be rewarded.
Stands to reason of course, but you guys in the UK always stand a far better chance anytime there's ever a hint of anything truly cold incoming off the nearby continent. Should this cold spell materialize later on this month Ireland will no doubt be left picking up the scraps as it sits on the periphery of the two main air masses.
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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
My thoughts are far from warmth, anyone worried about potential serious storm conditions....could be a couple rattling in with early Nov of real watch territory
BFTP
I don’t think early Nov will bring with it the potential for any disruptive weather as I’m quietly confident heights will have risen considerably from the south by then. However, Tue 27th Oct is possibly one to watch with the potential in this instance for some explosive cyclogenesis
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25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Well, another gfs op run that has zero interest in following the ecm.
ECM op had 2/3 support this morning. One to watch - gfs much more like the smaller very unsettled cluster.
As is nearly always the case one can surely expect the gfs to fall in line with the Ecm. I don’t anticipate the Ecm backing down on this more settled theme now going into Nov.
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4 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
I really do hope so. Most likely though, the models will change and we will end up getting boring high pressure instead. Still, we shall have to wait and see!
Well judging by the 240hr chart from the 12z ECM that seems to have been a very accurate prediction indeed. Can't help but feel an air of despondency coming on..
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10 minutes ago, E17boy said:
Morning peeps,
Oh dear oh dear I was feeling really optimistic about this coming winter untill I caught up with Gavs first seasonal model roundup which was released yesterday, after listening to It, wish I hadn't I must admit my heart sunk because it's a horror forcast from the models for us coldies. The Met Office are forecasting a mild or very mild winter for the northern hemisphere together with several other models. I know it's very early days and it was the first seasonal roundup but for god mighty I hope it's not a picture of things that are to come this winter. Has anyone got any idea of how reliable the met seasonal model is going by past years?
Its early days and these seasonal model forecasts are to be taken by pinch of salt, but it does shock the system a bit and it does make you start doubting your hopes.
As far as the short term I think unsettled and autumnal would sum it up going by the models.
hope you all have a great Sunday
kind regards
Think I could just about accept a mild winter provided it comes with an active Atlantic season as opposed to a yawn fest brought on by a relentless Azores/Euro high
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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:
GFS is a horrible unsettled outlier this morning:
ECM isn't too bad really, once the cooler and unsettled blast clears through Wednesday to Saturday the most of the low pressure systems stay closer to Iceland:
I said in my last post on Saturday night that I didn't consider it a foregone conclusion that post Wed-Fri of this week that these North Atlantic lows would suppress the Azores ridging to any great extent and judging by mb018538 post from earlier today it would appear my prediction may have some credence after all
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The 12z Ecm does appear to have downgraded the unsettled Wed-Fri period somewhat although still distinctly autumnal compared to what we’ve enjoyed these past couple of weeks. And if this 168 hr chart is anything to go by I wouldn’t be quite so sure that these North Atlantic lows will suppress the now familiar Azores ridging to any great extent.
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While the models seem to be definitely firming up now on an autumnal few days next Wed to Friday it would appear that it may be pretty short lived after all as that huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic looks poised to settle things down considerably again to end the month.
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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Aye, but Sundays system just appearing over the US
Looking pretty doubtful at this stage though that the system you refer to appearing over the US will impact our weather to any great extent over the following period. The 12z suites in general appear far less autumnal than the 00z’s. I suspect continuous ridging from the Azores will overall minimize any potential threat of very unsettled weather going forward.
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
That was the 12z > 00z edges colder
True Steve, but differences look pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. With the way this season has panned out in general I just can’t see anything noteworthy emerging now so late on with this in all likelihood being another false dawn to add to the already endless collection. As ever though, time will tell.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
These Iberian heights are really scuppering any decent chance there might otherwise be of getting anything sustained/noteworthy in terms of wintry weather. Yet again clearly evident on todays Ecm 12z one can see those dreaded heights to the south, if anything coming more into play again by Jan 5th and 6th. If what it takes is a raging pv to significantly suppress those heights then that might not be such a bad thing were conditions to become very stormy during January as hinted at in fl by the 12z gfs