Newberryone
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Posts posted by Newberryone
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Looking at the 12z Ecm it’s quite conceivable that it may not be all that long again before springlike temps similar to those of recent times make for many a welcome return. Unlike the 00z run heights to the southwest looking far more apparent in the second half of the run with systems being diverted further north. Setting aside this weekend, in general a far less unsettled looking run. Could this after all be just an interruption to an overall prolonged settled spell one wonders.
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At last it would now appear we're about to see a long overdue end to this omega block from next weekend. While I appreciate many are enjoying the early Spring warmth brought about in part by this block I won't disguise the fact I'm eagerly looking forward to a resurgent Atlantic. Whether this upcoming unsettled spell proves to be protracted in nature remains to be seen but any change from what we've had to endure for so long now can only be a good thing.
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1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:
Yes Chris,
the 00z ECM looks as if it could introduce a wintry Northerly, if it went beyond t240.
Regards,
Tom.
But hasn’t that been the story of this winter, signs of anything potentially wintry have nearly always remained outside the day ten range. Besides, like the gfs the 00z Ecm run seems to be yet again delaying any breakdown with the block proving more resilient. Wouldn’t surprise me to see this eastern block continuing to plague us well into March.
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7 hours ago, Frosty. said:
That's enough time in the torture chamber for me today..back for more punishment tomorrow!!!!
Well Karl, judging by the latest overnight run from the likes of the Ecm it would appear you were correct in preempting another day of punishment ahead. Usually such reverse psychology would produce more favourable results.
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Looks like Ecm may just perhaps be trying to salvage something out of this most frustrating of winters. It’d be nice to think that the dice for once may roll in our favour should such an evolution come to pass and more importantly be built upon in future runs. One dares to dream! Ps Tight Isobar, I love your contribution to this forum, and always enjoy reading your superb analysis and interpretation of the model output. As a fellow coldie I’m forever willing you to be right.
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7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Yes but no Atlantic onslaught that I read about or winter ending IDO.
Hoping the high sits benificially to start with.
Knowing how this winter’s gone so far and judging by how the last high just sat to our southwest for weeks on end wiping out wintry potential from approx Dec 24th through nearly all of Jan I wouldn’t care to bet on this high doing us any great favours in this respect either.
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2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:
It's not long ago the general view was that not only was the pv being shot to pieces but also that it may not recover at all for the rest of Winter. You wouldn't want to be giving general public forecasts on that thought process lol.
We learn something every Winter and we've learnt a lot this year too. One thing I've learnt in my 45 years of watching weather is that the period around Christmas is a good guide on rest of Winter. No science in this just school of life!!
Yes, and we all know what happened Christmas just gone, those painful heights to the southwest which came into play from around Dec 24th and just sat there for nigh on 3 weeks. And now a Euro high looks like setting up shop and eating into more valuable winter time for us from next weekend.
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Surely the likes of Tight Isobar and all those who solicited false hope re the long range teleconnections/ssw effects etc etc must be tucked away in a corner somewhere eating humble pie right now having seen some of the latest stomach churning FI charts..
Perhaps time to admit defeat eh I’d challenge anyone to put a positive spin on this chart.
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
I can see riots developing outside of the ECM headquarters and general chaos as coldies react angrily to yet more fantasy rubbish from the EC46 !
It’s that good eh
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8 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
Care to elaborate? It delivered in 2010, and 2013 not to me tion last year also, so I fail to see how it scuppers our hopes all the time
I didn’t say the pv scuppers our hopes all of the time. If I’m not mistaken the word “largely” was used.
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What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!!
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15 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:
Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me.
Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end.
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Sadly no sign of anything really sustained with regards to prolonged wintry prospects. For several days now the ec det runs have been indicating a return to something less cold/mild in its ext outlook period and these signs don’t seem to be waning by any means. Yes, it may only be a temporary temp rise but overall time is of the essence now as the clock is ticking fast on this forgettable winter.
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In a winter that saw continuous grass growth for many, I can’t see anything but an early arrival of Spring going forward judging by Ecm’s prediction for Feb 4th. Just look at those ghastly heights to the southwest which have basically been the story of winter ‘18/‘19.Tick tock, tick tock!!!
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One can only hope the commencement of these northerly incursions from around the 14th/15th will eventually lead to something more substantial in terms of sustained blocking. Can’t honestly say I find the wording on the latest outlook from the met service here to be overly interesting. This for example is how they see things panning out from next Wednesday onwards..
”Further outlook: A changeable more mobile Atlantic regime is probable, with damp or wet and windy episodes, alternating with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will tend to trend closer to average, with an increased risk of night-time frosts”
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Hopefully just a wobble from the overnight Ecm run for it's a considerable downgrade on recent runs. Would be great to have the full impact of the SSW felt within the next fortnight giving us a good 6 weeks from then till end of Feb to possibly enjoy its fruits rather than have it all happening too little too late, much like what happend end of Feb ‘18.
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Wouldn’t you just know it, just when The Express is at it again with their predictions for a Jan whiteout, reality paints a very different picture as in the latest Ecm run....
A paragraph from the express updated just a couple of hours ago. “ Heavy snow is predicted to hit early in 2019. Bookmakers have slashed the odds on snow falling during January and are predicting the coldest winter on record. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day are, however, both expected to be mild with “outbreaks of drizzle”.
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Amidst all the doom and gloom coming off the back of the latest gfs run there's still perhaps a chink of light and reasons to be hopeful if not cheerful the fact that local radio here in the Cork region carried a story earlier today which said Ireland could be in for a bitterly cold and wintry January, with the possible return of the same type weather system that caused The Beast from the East this year. The story went on to say how according to the British Met office the UK is currently in the middle of what's known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. However, the news item did end on a cautionary note and that needless to say came from a spokesperson representing the Irish met office saying it was too early "yet" to say if we'll get more extreme weather.
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12 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Sadly that's the one I back. Got a feeling this HIgh is going to go well beyond it's welcome. Lala land GFS does offer some faint hope.
Well I’ll probably be very unpopular for saying this, but if that high can’t position itself favorably to bring us what we all crave for in our hunt for the obvious then the Gfs solution along with the met office forecast of a potentially ramped up jet early January is of far more interest than a mind numbingly boring Slug to our south as has been the case so far this Christmas.
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Ecm 240 chart is a thing of sheer beauty..best stocking filler of the day
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4 hours ago, Frosty. said:
The models are currently vile...but, after a few drinks perhaps they won't look so bad!..happy crimbo
Keep the faith Frosty, for something tells me you may have reason before long to inundate this forum with a certain emoji that I know holds very special appeal let alone significance..
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2 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Thanks for all the likes everyone. Finally, arrived at Gatwick after a bit of a delay. Safely back in good old Sussex for a couple of days. You know, despite your mundane weather over in blighty , you still live in a great country, possible the best in the world. Your pubs are fantastic social hubs , now offering amazing choice of real ales. Your food in second to none. Roast beef and Yorkshire pudding served with gravy as thick as the soles of your shoes, proper bacon, thick crust white bread ( beats that Alpine bread , full of all sorts of nuts any day) Fish and chips with mushy peas , thick cut Oxford Marmalade jam and the list goes on and on. Oh , your Tv is amazing. To all on here enjoy the holiday and forget about those grim charts showing this morning, they will switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days ! Will send some updates from Canada.
Cheers,
C
“Switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days” eh
We’ll hold you to that
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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Merry Christmas everybody, the only thing splitting this morning is my head....self conflicted of course
Don’t you mean self inflicted
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Oh Tight Isobar as well as Helen Willets and the like, whatever happened to the promise and the dream...Seasons greetings anyhow from a subtropical filled Cork
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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Chalk and cheese comes to mind with regards the latter frames of the 12z Ecm compared to the 00z which was looking very autumnal indeed. Surely must call into question how much credence one can give to the latest outlook, especially beyond next weekend.